How Long Do the Baltic States Have? Planning Horizons for Baltic Defense
By Lukas Milevski, FPRI
“Throughout Russia’s current, renewed invasion of Ukraine, the three Baltic states have been continually working to improve their defense, even as they send military aid to Ukraine (the scale of which—compared to the Baltics’ own defense budgets—is staggering). The Lithuanian Army is aiming to establish an entire light infantry division by 2030, … Latvia and Estonia are seeking to jointly procure a German Iris-T medium-range air defense system …”
—
“Baltic defense is in ferment, for obvious reasons. Key deadlines range from two to seven years distant, 2025 to 2030. Yet defense policy, planning, and procurement are not done in a vacuum, but relative to the prospective threat—Russia. The military threat Russia poses to the Baltic states has reached an all-time low point in modern history. … By mid-autumn 2022, the overall presence of Russian forces along NATO’s (pre-Finnish accession) eastern border had dropped from 30,000 to perhaps as low as 6,000. Even while the much-hyped Ukrainian counteroffensive was still looming, Russia continued to take a beating as its own winter offensive failed to achieve much other than getting Russians killed in large numbers.”
Can the Baltic Sea Be Saved?
(Spiegel)
“Tons of World War II munitions, a huge dead zone and global warming are putting the squeeze on the already highly vulnerable Baltic Sea.”
—
“But how much longer will the Baltic Sea continue to be of service to humanity? It is under more strain than almost any other sea. An average of 2,500 commercial vessels – ferries, cruise ships, tankers, container ships and leisure craft – are moving between Scandinavia, the Baltic states and the German coast at any given time."
"The underwater world is exposed to noise, trash and toxins. Some 85 million people live in the catchment area of this inland sea, meaning that a lot of industry, agriculture, traffic, and thus a lot of pollutants, exhaust fumes and fertilizers find their way into the Baltic Sea through wind and rivers. And while the flood of heavy metals and pesticides may now have been stemmed, the amount of nitrates, nitrogen oxides and phosphates that fertilize the Baltic Sea is still too great.”
“Latvia beaches closed after spill from sewage treatment plant.” - France24
“Nazi-era bombs on Baltic seabed threaten wind farms, says EU official.” - Financial Times
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Cover: Vanda Juhansoo's watercolor
"Nöiamaja saun", 1959
Karilatsi Vabaöhumuuseum
Kanepi vald, Pölvamaa
https://karilatsimuuseum.ee/karilatsi-open-air-museum/
EstoNews on-line:
https://estonewsoftheweek.blogspot.com/
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Friday 28. July
Eesti energeetika võib 2040. aastaks saada peaaegu süsinikuneutraalseks
(ERR)
“Eestil on energiamajanduses võimalik 2040. aastaks saavutada elektri- ja soojussektoris süsinikuneutraalsus, kirjutavad Tallinna Tehnikaülikooli teadlased Rohetiigri energia teekaarti tutvustades. Samas jääb kliimaeesmärk praeguse seisuga täitmata transpordisektoris, sest napib majanduslikult ja keskkonnakaitseliselt sobivaid lahendusi.”
Military and disaster medicine center will be built on the outskirts of Tartu
(BNN)
"The new center will combine the medical center of the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF), and its medical warehouse and will also have space for disaster medicine training. The planned medical center will significantly improve the conditions of military medical training. ECDI representative Peeter Karja said that the center will have several simulation rooms that will allow the training participants to learn the necessary skills to provide assistance to seriously wounded soldiers in combat conditions.”
https://bnn-news.com/military-and-disaster-medicine-center-will-be-built-in-tartu-247942
USA senat suurendas Balti riikide kaitseks mõeldud toetust
(ERR)
“Eelnõus eraldatakse Balti Julgeolekuinitsiatiivile 228 miljonit dollarit, mis on 20 miljoni suurem kui presidendi eelarve-ettepanek, et toetada jätkuvat julgeolekukoostööd Eesti, Läti ja Leeduga, seisab senati eelarve eraldiste kinnitamise komitee avaldatud teates.”
—
[The US Senate approved, in a large majority vote, the next defense budget proposal to support the security of the Baltic states to $ 228 million.]
https://www.err.ee/1609046135/usa-senat-suurendas-balti-riikide-kaitseks-moeldud-toetust
Eesti kullassepaäri tooteid näidati Hollywoodi filmides
(Postimees)
“Samuti võib eestimaist loomingut leida Wimbledoni tenniseturniirilt. Roman Tavasti nimekaimate klientide seas on näiteks Ralph Lauren, Eurostar, Londoni börs, Bvlgari, Tate Modern, London School of Economics ja Marriott International.”
—
“2022. aastal avanes Roman Tavastil võimalus luua kuninganna Elizabeth II juubeliaasta raames toimunud Queen’s Green Canopy heategevusettevõtmisele piiratud partii tammepuu-kujulisi prosse, mida kandis prints Charles, nüüdne Suurbritannia kuningas Charles III. Prossi kujundas ja 3D-modelleeris ehtekunstnik Kairin Koovit, kelle loodud disaini enne töösse võtmist kuningakoda heaks kiitis.”
https://majandus.postimees.ee/7823603/eesti-kullassepaari-tooteid-naidati-hollywoodi-filmides
Estonia: Consent law against rape
(Eurotopics)
“After a highly contentious court decision in which two defendants were acquitted of rape charges, Estonia is debating a reform of its sexual offence laws.”
https://www.eurotopics.net/en/305061/estonia-consent-law-against-rape#
Is there a way to get Russia to pay for Ukraine's reconstruction?
(The Week)
“In March, the World Bank estimated the total cost of Ukrainian reconstruction would hit $411 billion — simply to cover the first year of Russia's attempted invasion — and "is expected to stretch over 10 years and combines both needs for public and private funds." Staggering as that amount may be (it's more than two and a half times Ukraine's total GDP last year), it's on the conservative side of things, with other monetary bodies more than doubling the estimated cost of reconstruction to over a trillion dollars in order to cover the damages wrought by Russian forces. And while the broad consensus across Western allied nations is that Russia must ultimately foot the bill for Ukraine's reconstruction, the exact mechanisms for making that happen are decidedly less clear.”
https://theweek.com/russo-ukrainian-war/1025389/is-there-a-way-to-get-russia-to-pay-for-the-war
Poola ja Leedu kaaluvad Wagneri pärast riigipiiride sulgemist
(Delfi)
“Leedu siseministri asetäitja Arnoldas Abramavičius sõnas reedel, et piiri sulgemist kaalutakse tõsiselt ning see võimalus on olemas, vahendab ‘The Guardian’. Wagneri võitlejad suundusid pärast valitsusevastast mässu Valgevenesse ning peatuvad seal. Leedu on oma liitlaseid korduvalt hoiatanud, et Wagnerlased võivad end maskeerida põgenikeks ja püüda Valgevene piiri ületada või korraldada provokatsioone, mis ka pagulasi hõlmavad.”
—
“Tegu võib olla mõne põgenikerühma, ebaseaduslike sisserändajate ümberpaigutamisega, et tekitada mingisuguseid rahutusi,“ ütles Abramavičius.
Poola koalitsioonipartei Õigus ja Õiglus juht Jarosław Kaczyński ütles reedel, et Wagneri võitlejad „ei ole Valgevenes lõbu pärast“.
Lithuania and Poland are considering closing borders with Belarus
(AFP via Barrons)
“… amid concerns over the presence there of the Wagner mercenary group.
—
“Belarus has been hosting Wagner fighters following their short-lived rebellion against Russia's top military brass. Lithuania repeatedly warned its Western allies that Wagner mercenaries could disguise themselves as asylum seekers trying to cross Belarus's borders with EU member states, or stage provocations involving refugees.”
https://www.barrons.com/news/poland-lithuania-mull-shutting-belarus-border-over-wagner-be4c03e0
“Latvian army commander: Wagner is an information war product.” - BNN
Thursday 27. July
Estonia's growing lynx problem
(ERR)
“Mild winters and a growing population have made lynx less afraid to explore Estonia's urban space. Spotting the creatures in towns and cities is becoming increasingly common. … Last week, a lynx was spotted running around Tallinn's Balti jaam station and sitting outside a restaurant in the Kalamaja district.”
—
“"Another reason is that a lot of forests are being cut down and the area is getting smaller. And the low level of hunting also plays a role."
Sweden 'at risk' thanks to Russian-backed Quran burning disinformation
(Euronews | Reuters)
“Recent incidents at protests have attracted outrage and formal diplomatic action from several Muslim-majority countries. Sweden's domestic security service has warned that the country is facing "elevated threats" after recent Quran burnings in the country, with a top government minister blaming much of the fallout on disinformation from Russia and other hostile governments.”
—
“"Sweden has gone from being seen as a tolerant country to being seen as an anti-Islamic land.”
—
—
“Foreign actors helping drive disinformation campaigns against Sweden.” - Radio Sweden
“Russia ‘using disinformation’ to imply Sweden supported Qur’an burnings.” - The Guardian
“Sweden's Quran burnings put freedom of expression law to test.” - BBC
“Sweden exposes Russia’s disinformation campaign.” - TVP World
Wednesday 26. July
2. brigaad peaks esimesed soomukid saama enne Kevadtormi
(Postimees)
“Eesti riik sõlmib kuu aja pärast lepingu soomukitootjatega, kes tarnivad kaitseväele umbes 200 miljoni euro eest 6x6 soomukeid ja 4x4 soomusmaastureid. Ülejärgmiseks aastaks peaks kõik spetsiaalselt Eesti jaoks valmistatud 230 soomukit olema kaitseväe – peamiselt 2. jalaväebrigaadi – käsutuses.”
“Leedu valmistub ostma Leopard-tanke.” - Postimees
“Estonia rearms for fear of Russian invasion.” - Le Monde Diplomatique
“Lithuania’s approach to defence is changing fundamentally.” - Lithuanian Tribune
“Estonia’s aid to Ukraine over 1% of GDP says Defense Minister Pevkur.” - Ukrinform
“RAF jets are ‘sound of freedom’ in Estonia amid Russian aggression.” - The Independent, Uk
Tallinn hit by heavy rainfall and extensive flooding Tuesday night
(ERR | Postimees)
“In a 24-hour period, around 80 percent of the average monthly amount of rain fell on Tallinn on Tuesday, and the city's infrastructure in some cases proved inadequate to deal with it.”
https://news.err.ee/1609044236/tallinn-hit-by-heavy-rainfall-and-extensive-flooding-tuesday-night
—
“Reidi tee torustik pidigi paduvihmaga uputama.” - Novaator
“Tallinn hakkab torustike planeerimisel rohkem arvestama suurvihmadega.” - ERR
“Man swims from Estonia to Finland, fundraising for kids' swimming lessons.” - Yle
“Melu Tallinna supelrandades sada aastat tagasi ja tänapäeval. Mis on muutunud?” - Pealinn
Baltic states want to help distribute Ukraine's grain
(Latvian Broadcasting)
“The Baltic States have five ports that could be used to safely export much more of Ukraine's grain. We are officially proposing that the EU Commission
help us to increase rail capacity on the Baltic Route.” - Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis
“Baltics to IOC: Don't 'open a path' for Russia and Belarus into the Olympics.” - LSM
“Baltics aim for earlier electricity desynchronization date.” - LSM
Investigators pull MS Estonia shipwreck's bow ramp from sea
(Yle | ERR | Baird Maritime)
“The ramp, which weighs about 12 tonnes, is to be examined by accident investigators in Estonia. Its study is not expected to change the general understanding of what caused the 1994 tragedy, but the effort marks a step forward in the investigation, according to the head of the Estonian Safety Investigation Bureau, Märt Ots.”
—
https://www.err.ee/1609042928/fotod-ja-video-sundmuskohalt-uurimismeeskond-tostis-ules-estonia-rambi
—
72 % of Estonians against the car tax
(BNS via Estonian World)
“The governing coalition of the Reform Party, Estonia 200, and the Social Democrats, who took office after the March parliamentary elections, wants to introduce a car tax in Estonia. In its latest flash survey, the Institute for the Study of Societal Issues asked people how they felt about the proposed tax.”
https://estonianworld.com/life/almost-three-quarters-of-estonians-against-the-car-tax/
“Vaata, kui palju hakkad oma auto pealt maksu maksma.” - Postimees
“Automaks peaks olema CO2-põhine.” - Pealinn
Läti tõkestas ligipääsu Vene propagandalehtedele
(ERR)
“Läti riiklik elektroonilise meedia nõukogu (NEPLP) otsustas sulgeda Lätis juurdepääsu kolmele Venemaa veebilehele, nende seas wagner2022.ru, dentv.ru ja yapolitic.ru, teatas nõukogu avalduses. NEPLP-i teatel ütlesid julgeolekuteenistused, et neid veebilehti kasutatakse Venemaa agressiivse propaganda toetamiseks, sealhulgas Venemaa Ukraina-vastase sõja ja sõjakuritegude kohta valeteabe levitamiseks, samuti nende õigustamiseks.”
https://www.err.ee/1609044500/lati-tokestas-ligipaasu-vene-propagandalehtedele
Canada pledged 2% of GDP on its military in 2014, but has not attained it
(CBC)
“However, earlier this month, NATO member leaders pledged to boost spending on national defence, agreeing to make the existing target of two per cent of GDP the minimum spent each year, with one-fifth of that going toward major equipment and research and development. Still, it's unclear when such a target might be realized. While Canada has agreed to the benchmark, it has not set out a plan to reach it. The agreement also raises questions about the kind of budgetary pressures Canada would face by spending billions more on its military. And would that extra spending fundamentally transform the country's defence forces?”
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/gdp-nato-military-spending-canada-1.6912028
80 % of Belarusians Remain Opposed to Use of Their Army in Ukraine
(Window on Eurasia)
“… according to Andrey Verdomatsky, head of the Belarusian Analytic Workshop, which recently completed the third poll over the last year about such a possibility.”
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2023/07/80-percent-of-belarusians-remain.html
“Is the Wagner Group a Poison Gift for Lukashenka?” - Visegrad Insight
“Wagner’s camp in Belarus has no less than 750 pieces of equipment.” - Novaya Gazeta
“EU Agrees To Adopt 'Restrictive Measures' On Belarus For Its Involvement In Ukraine War.” - RFERL
“Baltics should turn to NATO to agree on scenarios for response to possible provocations by the Wagner group.” Lithuanian Tribune
- Putin’s Forever War -
In the 1930s, Soviets blew up Odesa’s Transfiguration Cathedral. Now Russia has destroyed it - again
(Meduza)
“Russia’s attack on Odesa on the night of July 22 was the largest to hit the city’s historic center since the start of the full-scale war, according to local authorities. The regional administration initially reported that at least 44 buildings were damaged, 25 of which were officially recognized architectural monuments.”
—
“Multiple Ukrainian organizations have tracked the destruction of religious sites during the war, including the Workshop for the Academic Study of Religion and the Institute for Religious Freedom. According to their data, nearly 500 religious structures, religious-educational institutes, and sanctuaries have been heavily damaged or destroyed in Ukraine. Most of them have been Ukrainian Orthodox Church buildings.”
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/07/26/everything-in-the-rotunda-was-smashed-into-oblivion
Russian Offensive Campaign
Assessments: 26. & 27. July
(ISW)
“Ukrainian forces launched a significant mechanized counteroffensive operation in western Zaporizhia Oblast on July 26 and appear to have broken through certain pre-prepared Russian defensive positions south of Orikhiv.”
—
“Ukrainians appear to have rotated fresh forces into this area for the operation whereas Russian forces remain pinned to the line apparently without rotation, relief, or significant reinforcement in this sector.”
—
“Western officials are unhelpfully raising expectations for rapid and dramatic Ukrainian advances that Ukrainian forces are unlikely to be able to meet, as well as offering forecasts of the likely Ukrainian avenues of advance that should probably not have been shared publicly.”
—
“The Kremlin and the wider Russian information space are intensifying efforts to portray the Ukrainian counteroffensive as a failed effort.”
—
“Russia conducted another strike on Ukrainian port infrastructure in Odesa Oblast and rear areas of Ukraine overnight on July 26–27.”
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-26-2023
—
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-27-2023
“Venemaa suudab senises tempos veel kaua jätkata.” - ERR
“It’s wishful to think Putin’s system is falling apart.” - Politico
“Russians React to Tightening Conscription Measures.” - Kyiv Post
“Russia's Black Sea Fleet preparing for blockade on Ukraine.” - Forces Net
“Reports claim Moscow has lost 2,000 tanks in Ukraine.” - Warrior Maven
“Claim: Russia has now lost some 243,680 soldiers in Ukraine.” - Radio Poland
“NATO slams 'dangerous' Russian blockade of Ukraine's Black Sea grain exports.” - France24
“UN official says latest Russian attacks on Ukraine ‘signal a calamitous turn’.” - The Hill
“Prigozhin’s mutiny was the first marker of the cracking of the regime.” - The New Republic
“Venelased Krimmis ei ole kuskil kaitstud, Luganski oblastis on olukord ukrainlastele keeruline.” - Estonian World Review
Wagner Group: Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Mutiny Timeline - by the Hour
(Russia Matters)
“The conflict between PMC Wagner and the Russian Ministry of Defense had been brewing for years. It culminated on June 23 when Prigozhin’s fighters launched a “march for justice,” crossed into Russia from Ukraine and headed toward Moscow. On their way to the Russian capital, the Wagnerites captured key facilities in the city of Rostov-on-Don, including the headquarters of the Southern Military District. Some of Wagner’s personnel reached Kolomna (about 120 km south of Moscow) on June 24 before their boss reached a deal with the Kremlin.”
https://www.russiamatters.org/analysis/prigozhins-mutiny-hour
Ukraine: Prepare for a Longer War and Be Cautious in Pushing for Major Offensives
Commentary by Anthony H. Cordesman, CSIS
“It is always tempting to push for a quick end to a conflict and to call for decisive action. But the United States may now be calling for far quicker and more decisive action from Ukraine than Ukrainian forces can actually execute. It may also be doing so in ways which ignore the strategic realities of the ways in which war is most likely to evolve. Pushing Ukraine to take the offensive may well do little more than help exhaust it and raise casualties. …”
https://www.csis.org/analysis/ukraine-prepare-longer-war-and-be-cautious-pushing-major-offensives
‘Nazi satanists are entrenched in the holy Russian city of Kyiv’
(Meduza)
“The Kremlin’s guide for covering an upcoming religious holiday instructs propagandists to push territorial claims to Ukraine and Poland.”
Ukraine’s Manpower Requirements Reaching Critical Threshold
(Jamestown Org.)
“Following Ukraine’s successful Kherson counteroffensive in the fall of 2022, the war in Ukraine has moved into the Materialschlacht, or war of attrition phase, which is rapidly depleting critical resources. Typically, when discussing resources in this sense, Ukraine is most often referring to the tanks, missiles, ammunition and other materiel that it needs from its partner countries.
However, human or personnel resources are often overlooked. …”
https://jamestown.org/program/ukraines-personnel-needs-reaching-a-critical-threshold/
Washington Post: Putin oli Prigožini mässu alguses otsustusvõimetu
(ERR)
“Mitme Euroopa julgeolekuametniku sõnul jättis Kremli suutmatus otsuseid teha kohaliku tasandi ametnikud omapäi, kui Wagneri üksused sisenesid Doni-äärse Rostovi linna ja hõivasid sealse Vene vägede juhtimispunkti enne Voroneži ja Moskva peale suundumist. Kuna Vene relvajõud ja julgeolekutöötajad ei saanud Moskvast juhiseid, siis otsustasid mitmeid neist mitte takistada Wagneri üksuseid. Paljud kohaliku tasandi ametnikud ei suutnud uskuda, et Wagneri mäss saaks toimuda ilma Kremli heakskiiduta. See uskumus püsis hoolimata Vladimir Putini avalikust videopöördumisest, mille raames Vene president mõistis mässu hukka.”
https://www.err.ee/1609043291/leht-putin-oli-prigozini-massu-alguses-otsustusvoimetu
Putin was reportedly paralyzed and unable to act decisively during the first hours of the Wagner mutiny
(The Moscow Times | Washington Post)
“Putin did not issue orders for most of the day of Prigozhin's 24. June rebellion despite the fact that, according to intelligence assessments shared with the media, the Russian security services had warned Putin of a possible mutiny at least two or three days in advance.”
—
“The authoritarian system is formed in such a way that without a very clear command from the leadership, people don’t do anything. When the leadership is in turmoil and disarray, it [is] the same situation at the local level and even worse.”
—
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/07/25/putin-prigozhin-rebellion-kremlin-disarray/
The June Ukrainian Defeat Near Mala Tokmachka Was Worse Than We Thought
By David Axe, Forbes
“An attempt by the Ukrainian army’s 47th Assault Brigade and 33rd Mechanized Brigade to cross a minefield in southern Ukraine on June 8 was even more disastrous than we knew. Analysts recently have tallied even more wrecked and abandoned 47th Brigade M-2 infantry fighting vehicles. At the same time, a Ukrainian photographer on or before Saturday got close enough to the site of the failed assault to snap photos of the Russian minefield that trapped the Ukrainian battlegroup, ultimately destroying dozens of 47th and 33rd Brigades’ best Western-made vehicles and killing or wounding many Ukrainians. …”
“Ukrainian Engineers Are Recovering The 25 Vehicles Ukraine Lost In A Russian Minefield on June 8.” - Forbes, 2. July
Putin’s War Is Slowly Destroying Europe’s Breadbasket
(Politico Magazine)
“Ukraine has kept producing and exporting grain despite the Russian invasion. How much longer can that go on?”
—
“More than a quarter of Ukraine’s grain country lies east of the Dnieper River, and has been controlled or threatened by Russia since the February 2022 invasion. Even in the relatively safe southwest, the Ukrainian military has commandeered — thereby disabling — a lot of farmland. Tkachenko says that about 3 to 5 percent of the fields in his region were fortified early in the war against a possible Russian sea invasion. Another farmer in the area says a third of his nearly 10,000 acres have been used for trenches, mining and the like.”
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/07/21/ukraine-grain-harvest-00107212
“Opinion: NATO Convoys Can Protect Ukraine’s Grain Harvest From Putin.” - Bloomberg
“Russia Lays Mines in Black Sea to Block Ukrainian Grain Ports.” - USNI
“Russia strikes Ukraine’s grain export port on the Danube River.” - Politico
“Russia shells Ukrainian ports on the Danube.” - OSW
Ukraine is now the most mined country. It will take decades to make safe
(Washington Post)
“In a year and a half of conflict, land mines — along with unexploded bombs, artillery shells and other deadly byproducts of war — have contaminated a swath of Ukraine roughly the size of Florida or Uruguay. It has become the world’s most mined country.”
—
“About 30 percent of Ukraine, more than 67,000 square miles, has been exposed to severe conflict and will require time-consuming, expensive and dangerous clearance operations, according to a recent report by GLOBSEC, a think tank based in Slovakia. Though the ongoing combat renders precise surveys impossible, the scale and concentration of ordnance makes Ukraine’s contamination greater than that of other heavily mined countries such as Afghanistan and Syria.”
—
“Demining is not just slow, it’s also expensive. The World Bank estimates that demining Ukraine, which costs between $2 and $8 per square meter, will cost $37.4 billion over the next 10 years.”
“Demining Ukraine: Bringing lifesaving expertise back home.” - UN
“Land mines maim and kill long after a conflict is over.” - Tampa Bay Times
“Ukraine’s Combat Engineers Are Riding Special Mineclearing Tanks Into Battle.” - Forbes
“Metal detectors are no use: Challenge of removing landmines slows Ukraine counteroffensive.” - France24
Russia places explosive mines near occupied Ukrainian nuclear reactor
(AP | Politico Europe)
“Russian forces occupying Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant have placed explosive mines near the facility, warned the chief of the U.N.'s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The mines were located in a buffer zone between the plant's internal and external barriers and were facing away from the facility; they were spotted during a Sunday walk-around by IAEA inspectors. …”
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