2023 NATO Summit
Vilnius
“The alliance added Sweden, laid out new ambitions for itself and offered long-term support for Ukraine, promising membership someday. But Kyiv wanted more.” - New York Times
“NATO Press Release, 11. July 2023.” - NATO
Sweden hails historic step as Turkey backs NATO bid
(BBC | Politico Europe)
“Following eleventh-hour negotiations, Turkey’s president dropped his previous opposition. … Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Monday agreed to drop his resistance to Sweden joining the NATO alliance and to submit the ratification to the Turkish parliament “as soon as possible,” the alliance’s Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters.”
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“Sweden promised to “actively support efforts to reinvigorate” Turkey’s EU membership bid in a seven-point agreement with Ankara. Stockholm also agreed it will not support other Kurdish militant groups and to boost economic cooperation with Turkey.”
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“Yet Sweden's now increasingly imminent membership won't be popular with everyone. According to a May survey by pollster Novus, 38% of Swedes remain either against or unsure about Sweden joining Nato.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66162513
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“No Champagne for Swedes at NATO yet, PM says.” - Politico
“Baltics cheer more security as Sweden’s path to NATO cleared.” - LRT
“Finnish leaders welcome Erdogan's green light for Swedish Nato bid.” - Yle
“Sweden accession deal is 'message' to Putin, Nato says.” - EU Observer
“NATO Summit Gives Moscow Little to Celebrate.” - The Moscow Times
“Summit's decisions show NATO sees Russia as main threat.” - Postimees
“Turkey’s pledge of support for Sweden’s NATO entry is tied to goals on security and EU membership.” - AP
Estonian officers: New defense plan hammered out at Vilnius is 'effective'
(ERR)
“While, unlike Latvia and Lithuania, there will be no permanently stationed allied brigade deployed to Estonia, two MPs and veteran high-ranking military officers are nonetheless of the opinion that the Estonian defense plan approved by NATO in Vilnius this week is effective, and strengthens the country's security.”
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“Defense ministers from Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania on Tuesday agreed to increase the opportunities for NATO air forces to train in the region's air space. This will enable air forces to train and carry out more exercises in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.”
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https://news.err.ee/1609031609/baltic-states-to-provide-training-areas-for-nato-air-forces
“The Declaration Of Cooperation.” - Eesti Kaitseministeerium
“Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania strengthen airspace cooperation.” - NATO
“Signing ceremony - Declaration of cooperation on Airspace between Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania.” - NATO Photo Hand-out
“NATO reaffirms plan for ‘combat-ready’ brigades in the Baltic states.” - LRT
“NATO defense plan approval will ensure a more rapid response.” - ERR
“Estonia does not demand more NATO troops, PM says.” - Reuters
“Kaitseplaanide järgi on Eesti valmis rünnaku kohe tagasi lööma.” - ERR
“Canada to double its troops for Latvia in NATO reinforcement.” - Reuters
“Integrated Air And Missile Defence Put To The Test In Lithuania.” - NATO
Four maps explain how Sweden and Finland could alter NATO’s security
(Washington Post)
“NATO’s main mission is keep Russia away from the Baltic states,” Christopher Skaluba, director of the Atlantic Council’s Transatlantic Security Initiative said, referring to Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania. A growing presence on the Baltic sea’s shores could strengthen security for those countries.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/07/11/nato-sweden-finland-maps/
“Why are the Baltic states strategically important for NATO?” - Reuters
“The First Job for NATO’s New Baltic Bloc.” - Foreign Policy
Baltic Region Receives a Major Boost
(Newsweek)
“There are around 38,000 Swedes under arms according to the Global Firepower military analysis website. Stockholm's fighter jet and naval offering will be particularly important in security and policing the Baltic Sea. Among Sweden's air force are some 70 Saab JAS 39 Gripen aircraft, which are touted for possible use for Ukrainian pilots. And at sea, Sweden's seven corvettes, five submarines, and almost 300 patrol vessels will help NATO eyes watch for Russian Baltic Sea Fleet vessels emerging from St. Petersburg or Kaliningrad.”
https://www.newsweek.com/nato-lake-major-boost-turkey-sweden-baltic-sea-vilnius-summit-1812128
“Sorry Russia, the Baltic Sea is NATO’s lake now.” - Politico Europe
Article 5: NATO’s common defense pledge stands in the way of Ukraine’s admission
(AP)
“… if Ukraine joins NATO in the middle of the war, then Russia is at war with the entire NATO alliance. At the core of this conundrum is Article 5 - NATO’s common defense guarantee under which an attack on one member is considered an attack on them all. … NATO’s credibility hinges on Article 5 and its commitment to offer membership to any European country that can contribute to security in Europe and North America. But Ukraine, currently in the middle of war with Russia, would oblige all 31 member countries to spring to its defense militarily, potentially igniting a wider war with a nuclear-armed country.”
https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-nato-article-5-88883436438dae49ba9cacb6d4cfad0a
“Swift EU Accession Is a Necessity.” - Visegrad Insight
“Opinion: Don’t Let Ukraine Join NATO.” - Foreign Affairs
“Liitlaste kompromiss sisaldas Ukrainale nii võite kui loobumisi.” - Postimees
“NATO chief offers Ukraine ‘a clear path towards its membership’.” - NBC
“Kallas: liitlased kinnitasid üksmeelselt: Ukraina tulevik on NATO-s.” - ERR
“NATO Says It Will Invite Ukraine Some Day, Resisting Calls to Act Soon.” - New York Times
“Estonia PM says she 'understands' Zelenskyy frustration on NATO.” - CNBC
“NATO offers Ukraine a faster path to membership while critics say the plan is too vague.” - CBC
“NATO Membership Is The 'Only Security Guarantee' For Ukraine.” - RFERL
“Ukrainat lahutab NATO liikmesusest üksmeele leidmine, kuid lihtsustatud tee on lahti.” - Postimees
Erdogan: Türgi ei ratifitseeri Rootsi NATO-liikmesust enne oktoobrit
(ERR)
“President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ütles kolmapäeval, et Türgi ei ole võimeline ratifitseerima Rootsi NATO-liikmesust kuni vähemalt oktoobrini, sest suvepuhkusel parlamendil pole istungeid.”
https://www.err.ee/1609032596/erdogan-turgi-ei-ratifitseeri-rootsi-nato-liikmesust-enne-oktoobrit
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https://www.err.ee/1609030775/stoltenberg-turgi-noustus-rootsi-nato-liikmeks-saamisega
“Ungari lubas ratifitseerida Rootsi NATO-liikmesuse.” - ERR
Opinion: There’s a model for Ukraine’s future Euro-Atlantic integration: The Baltics
By 8 foreign ministers of Baltic and Nordic states
(Washington Post)
“Together, the Nordic and Baltic countries represent a unique history of Euro-Atlantic integration. One of the Nordic countries’ greatest foreign policy achievements was an extensive engagement in the Baltic countries after the Cold War. The Nordics supported their Baltic neighbors’ fight for restoration of freedom and their journey into the Euro-Atlantic family. Now, the Nordic and Baltic countries act together in an equal and free partnership of prosperous democracies.”
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“It is time for us to bring this Baltic experience of the 1990s to our joint efforts in support of Ukraine on its journey toward membership in the European Union.”
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Friday 14. July
Valitsus kehtestas põua tõttu põllumajanduses eriolukorra
(Postimees)
“Kevadine põud ja juunikuuni kestnud öökülmad vähendasid põllumajanduskultuuride saagikust ja eriti raskesse olukorda on sattunud peamiselt rohusöödast toituvate loomade kasvatajad. Põllumajandustootjaid ähvardavad majanduslikud raskused, kuna nad ei suuda tagada kokkulepitud tarnekoguseid, see omakorda tähendab väiksemaid sissetulekuid ja raskusi näiteks laenude tagasimaksmisel.”
https://www.postimees.ee/7814352/valitsus-kehtestas-poua-tottu-pollumajanduses-eriolukorra
“Open Farm Day to be held all over Estonia.” - Estonian World
“Estonian gov. declares emergency situation in agriculture sector.” - ERR
“Southeastern Estonia seeing scant mushroom, berry hauls this year.” - ERR
“Climatologist: Edge of European heatwave will hit Estonia Sunday.” - ERR
Mari Kalkun: Stories of Stonia album review — mythical Estonian folk
(Financial Times - may require login)
“The singer champions the music and language of the Vorumaa region on her seventh record.”
https://www.ft.com/content/239828cc-4cb9-481b-9875-da288459ab17
Estonians still find strength in choirs during difficult times
By Kate Connolly, The Guardian, 8. July
“We sing for our freedom.”
Accused Russian intelligence officer extradited to US from Estonia
(Reuters)
“Vadim Konoschenok is expected to make an initial appearance in federal court in Brooklyn on Friday. Prosecutors are requesting he be detained pending trial, calling him a flight risk. Konoschenok, 48, was detained by Estonian authorities in October 2022 while trying to cross into Russia carrying 35 types of semiconductors and electronic components, some of which were subject to U.S. export controls, prosecutors said.”
Thursday 13. July
Maryland Airmen, USAFE work to improve Tapa air base
(The 175th Wing)
“At the request of the Estonian government, which has been partnered with the Maryland National Guard through the State Partnership Program since 1993, Maryland Airmen began working on the lodging support requirements for exercises and potential real-world emergencies. They also assisted with a pavement evaluation of the current runway repair to be ready for fifth-generation fighters and expansion requirements …”
Biden kuulutas Helsingis Põhjamaade liidritega uut ajastut
(Postimees)
“Kohtumist – millest võtsid osa ka Rootsi peaminister Ulf Kristersson, Norra peaminister Jonas Gahr Støre, Taani peaminister Mette Frederiksen ja Islandi peaminister Katrín Jakobsdóttir – võõrustanud Soome president Sauli Niinistö kordas samuti mõtet, et piirkonna julgeolekupoliitikas on alanud uus ajajärk.”
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“President Joe Bidenit võtsid Helsingis vastu ka NATO-vastased nn progressiivsed ja sõjavastased rühmitused, kes jätkavad protestimist Soome NATO liikmesuse vastu. Neljapäeval toimunud meeleavaldusel osalesid rühmitused, nagu «Stop NATO», Kommunistlik Noorteühing (Kommunistinuoret), Tampere marksistlik õppering ja Pirkanmaa rahukaitsjate komitee aktivistid Helsingis.”
Biden visited Helsinki to meet Finnish counterpart Sauli Niinistö
(Yle)
“In his opening remarks at a joint press conference, President Biden once again welcomed Finland as the newest member of Nato, saying that the US and Finland have been "friends for a long time" but they are now officially allies.”
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"Mr President, as our ally, we want the people of Finland to know the United States is committed to Nato, committed to Finland, and those commitments are rock solid. We will defend every inch of Nato territory and that includes Finland."
“Nordic leaders join Biden in Helsinki.” - Yle
“Finnish Americans welcome Biden in Helsinki.” - Yle
“Biden Visit Cements Finland’s Pivot Away From Neutrality.” - WSJ
“President Biden joint press conference with Finnish President Niinistö.” - C-SPAN
“Biden proclaims NATO alliance 'more united than ever' in contrast to predecessor Trump.” - ABCNews
Estonia to build reception areas for 1,600 more Allied soldiers in Tapa and Võrumaa
(ERR)
“Reception areas are to be built, where U.K. brigade units assigned to Estonia's defense, can be accommodated while taking part in training exercises or in the event of a crisis. … The extension of the Tapa reception area and the first Allied accommodation facility near Võru are due to be completed by end of this year.”
https://news.err.ee/1609032149/estonia-to-build-reception-areas-for-1-600-more-allied-soldiers
“Defense ministers agree on British Army units integration in Estonia.” - ERR
Estonia tests unmanned autonomous military vehicles for combat roles
(Interesting Engineering)
“A novel autonomous experiment at the Estonian Military Academy has been conducted, aiming to modernize the military and equip it with the latest autonomous ground systems. The two-day test saw uncrewed ground vehicles (UGV) from 11 worldwide developers from nine countries participating. The tests aimed to understand the "current status of the autonomous navigation capabilities of unmanned vehicles developed for military use.”
“Kaitseväe Akadeemia Korraldab Mehitamata Maismaasüsteemide Autonoomia Teste.” - Kaitseväe Akademia, Tartu
Dozens of cyber attacks recorded during NATO summit in Vilnius
(LRT)
“As the Vilnius summit was drawing to a close, reports emerged on Telegram of possible leaks related to the organisation of the summit. Police have opened a pre-trial investigation into the incident.”
“NATO flexes muscle to protect Vilnius summit.” - Reuters
Jens Stoltenberg, NATO secretary-general for the past 9 years, will stay on for an unprecedented 10th
By Anne Applebaum, The Atlantic, 4. July
“It would be hard to find a better illustration of the qualities that make Stoltenberg so popular. NATO is a defensive alliance representing a wide variety of countries and regions—Eastern Europe and Southern Europe, Scandinavia and Turkey, Britain and France. It makes decisions by consensus. To achieve that consensus, the NATO secretary-general does not personally need to fight battles or win wars. … Instead, the secretary-general, who is always a European, succeeds if he talks to everybody, finds common ground, negotiates compromises, never leaks, and never puts himself at the center of the story, even when the story is about him.”
“Why is replacing Jens Stoltenberg so difficult?” - Euronews
“NATO happy with a safe pair of hands as the war drags on.” - AP
“31 Nato states decided to keep him on rather than opting for someone new.” - BBC
Wednesday 12. July
Baltimaad peibutavad liitlashävitajaid suure harjutusalaga
(Postimees)
“Samal ajal, kui kauplemine lõppkommünikee üle veel kestis, istusid Eesti, Läti ja Leedu kaitseministrid Hanno Pevkur, Ināra Mūrniece ja Arvydas Anašauskas NATO asepeasekretäri Mircea Geoană isaliku pilgu all maha, et teha ära neile ette nähtud tseremoonia. Seal anti allkirjad Balti õhukaitse ühisdeklaratsioonile. Vastuseks küsimusele, miks seda juba ammu polnud tehtud, tunnistas kaitseministeeriumi kaitsepoliitika asekantsler Tuuli Duneton, et võinuks olla küll. …”
Poll claims 83 % of Estonians would support armed resistance
(ERR - 30. June)
“… almost two thirds of the population (64 %) would be willing to participate in defense activities, relative to their personal capabilities and skills. 34 % of the Estonian population said they would definitely be prepared to do so and 30 % would be rather prepared. Meanwhile, 14 % said they would be rather unprepared and 13 % would be entirely unprepared.”
https://news.err.ee/1609022207/poll-83-percent-of-estonians-would-support-armed-resistance-to-attack
“Less than half of Estonians support raising the defence spending.” - Estonian World
“Meelis Oidsalu: Baltics' defense spending should be 4.5 % of GDP.” - ERR
Russia to Expel 9 Finnish Mission Staff Members, Shutting Down Consulate in St. Petersburg
(Schengenvisa, Window on Eurasia)
“Russia has announced its decision to revoke the license for the Finnish Consulate General in St. Petersburg effective October 1.”
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“Even before it shuttered the Finnish consulate in St. Petersburg last week, Moscow had closed the consulates of the Baltic countries, the United States, the UK, and the Netherlands. But the closure of the Finnish outpost there effectively slammed shut Russia’s famed “window on Europe” because it had issued more visas than any of the others.”
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http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2023/07/moscow-slams-shut-russias-window-on.html
- Putin’s Forever War -
“Russia today resembles a theater on fire in which the actors rush around trying to continue to play their roles; the audience watches through smoke and tears and the only one in the theater with a fire extinguisher wants to see the end of the play.” - Window on Eurasia
Russian Offensive Campaign
Assessments: 11. & 12. July
(ISW)
“Russian forces conducted a series of Shahed 131 and 136 drone strikes across Ukraine on July 11, likely in a demonstrative response to the 2023 NATO Summit in Vilnius and to threaten the Black Sea grain deal. “
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“The Kremlin’s and Russian milbloggers’ reactions to the first day of the NATO Summit were relatively muted.”
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“A Ukrainian Storm Shadow missile strike reportedly killed Deputy Commander of the Russian Southern Military District (SMD) Lieutenant General Oleg Tsokov at the command post of the 58th Combined Arms Army (CAA) in occupied Berdyansk, Zaporizhia Oblast.”
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“The Russian information space continues to exhibit a generally muted response to the NATO summit.”
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-11-2023
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https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-12-2023
Thousands of Ukraine civilians are being held in Russian prisons. Russia plans to build many more
(AP)
“A Russian government document obtained by The Associated Press dating to January outlined plans to create 25 new prison colonies and six other detention centers in occupied Ukraine by 2026.”
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“In addition, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree in May allowing Russia to send people from territories with martial law, which includes all of occupied Ukraine, to those without, such as Russia. This makes it easier to deport Ukrainians who resist Russian occupation deep into Russia indefinitely, which has happened in multiple cases documented by the AP.”
“Russia scales up attacks on Ukrainian residential buildings.” - Novaya Gazeta
Russians withdrew over 100 billion Rubles (US $1.1 Billion) from banks during the Wagner mutiny
(The Moscow Times, 12. July)
“It was the highest surge in demand for cash since Russia announced a military mobilization in the fall of 2022, which also stirred panic and sparked a wave of emigration from the country, according to the RBC news website.”
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“The crisis sparked by Prigozhin’s months-long feud with Russia’s military leadership also led to flights out of Moscow selling out as Wagner troops marched toward the Russian capital.”
Wagner Fighters Reflect on Botched Rebellion With Resentment, Uncertainty
(The Moscow Times, 10. July)
“Following the mutiny, which ended in a deal for Prigozhin and his men to go to exile in Belarus, four former and current Wagner fighters who spoke to The Moscow Times shared mixed views toward the rebellion and its impact on the private military company’s future.”
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The Power of a Failed Revolt
(The Atlantic, 29. June)
“Putin appeared shaken and, as staff writer Anne Applebaum put it, “panicky.”. Tom Nichols refered to it as a falling-out among gangsters.”
https://www.theatlantic.com/podcasts/archive/2023/06/power-failed-revolt/674562/
“Agitated Russian president attempts to downplay role of Wagnerites in last month’s aborted mutiny.” - Politico Europe
“Russia's war in Ukraine reaches the 500-day mark.” - AP
“Kremlin denies Wagner troops captured nuclear base.” - Politico
“Russia's Schools Continue Marching Toward Militarization.” - RFERL
“Kremlin News Stars Unravel in Post-Mutiny Television Fiasco.” - Daily Beast
Estonian deputy sec-gen: Russia's aggression causing broad environmental, health damage
(Baltic Times, 7. July)
“The destruction of the Nova Kakhovka Dam has initiated a chain of events resulting in devastating floods. Communities are forced to evacuate their homes, and infrastructure is being destroyed. Water quality is at risk as pollutants and sediments flow downstream," Heidi Alasepp said. "We are all also aware of potential threats associated with the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. A possible release of radioactive substances poses a direct and long-term threat to human health. Air, water, and soil can become contaminated, which, in addition to local communities, will have serious consequences for people in neighboring countries."
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