Moscow’s massive losses may not neutralize its threat to NATO countries
(Foreign Policy | ERR, 22. May)
“For decades, Russia amassed the bulk of its advanced military forces in the so-called Western Military District, hunkered down on NATO’s borders, including near the Baltic States. Now, many of those forces have been thrown into the meat grinder in Ukraine, where Russia’s army has suffered devastating losses that could take decades to rebuild.”
—
“But even as the war drags on in Ukraine, Russia plans to rebuild its forces facing its new and expanded frontiers with NATO, according to interviews with multiple Eastern European defense and military officials. Officials in Washington may be sanguine about the longer-term threat from a Russia that has sowed Ukrainian fields with conscript bodies, but in Eastern Europe, and especially the Baltics, things still look dicey. Russia could fully reconstitute the number of troops facing the Baltic countries in a matter of two months to two years, these officials said, posing a new threat of a Russia-NATO military showdown even if the conflict in Ukraine isn’t resolved.”
—
“Russia has plans to increase considerably the number of forces behind the Estonian and Latvian borders,” said Tuuli Duneton, undersecretary for defense policy at the Estonian Ministry of Defense. “According to our assessments, Russia is going to be able to reconstitute its forces in two years,” with the potential to launch a limited incursion against NATO, she said. For now, the Russian forces facing NATO’s vulnerable northeastern flank represent a skeleton crew of what was once there.”
—
https://news.err.ee/1608985964/fp-estonia-among-places-putin-might-have-eyes-on-post-ukraine
“Estonian MP: Our allies are still asleep.” - Reaction
Cover Photo:
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ruins_of_Tartu_cathedral.jpg
Friday 26. May
Estonian Defense Forces' Spring Storm exercise comes to an end
(ERR)
“Estonia's largest annual defense training exercise, Spring Storm (Kevadtorm), which began on May 15 May, drew to a close on Friday. Nearly 14,000 conscripts, reservists, active-duty Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) personnel and members of the Estonian Defense League (Kaitseliit) as well as soldiers from eleven different allied countries took part in this year's exercise.”
https://news.err.ee/1608989924/estonian-defense-forces-spring-storm-exercise-comes-to-an-end
“Kevadtorm 2023.” - Eesti Kaitsevägi
“French airborne troops in Spring Storm drop in Estonia.” - ERR
“Spring Storm was led by the newly established Estonian Division.” - NATO
“British troops will show Putin 'you can’t win here', says Estonia's PM.” - The Telegraph
“Amazing night-time pictures show Royal Marines raiding beach in Estonia.” - Forces Net
“Military drills held across Finland this weekend as Nato warships visit Helsinki.” - Yle
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| NATO British Challenger 2 in Estonia | Foto: Bob Morrison |
“I parked my tank in someone's back garden - and they didn’t mind at all.” - The Telegraph
Scholz Tallinnas: Putin tahtis NATO-t nõrgestada, kuid saavutas vastupidise
(ERR | Postimees)
“Reedel saabusid Tallinnasse visiidile Saksamaa liidukantsler Olaf Scholz, Läti peaminister Krišjānis Kariņš ja Leedu peaminister Ingrida Šimonytė. Peaminister Kaja Kallas kohtus Scholziga ning lisaks toimus Eesti, Läti, Leedu ja Saksamaa valitsusjuhtide ühine tööõhtusöök ja pressikonverents.”
—
“Saksa kantsler Olaf Scholz saabus Eestisse visiidile.” - Postimees
“Baltic states and Germany pledge long-term support for Ukraine.” - Latvian Broadcasting
“Fotod Ja Video: Tallinna väisav Saksa kantsler kohtus ja sõi õhtust Balti riikide peaministritega.” - Delfi
Juhtkiri: Postimees kehtestab Kaia Kanepile boikoti
(Postimees)
“Prantsusmaal Strasbourgis toimunud WTA 250 taseme turniiril osales Kanepi paarismängus koos neutraalse lipu all võistleva venelanna Angelina Gabujevaga. Mängida paaris tähendab sisuliselt olla samas võistkonnas agressorriigi sportlasega, tunnustada teda oma liitlasena.”
—
“Vähe sellest, Kanepi on võtnud Vene agressiooni suhtes ka neutraalse hoiaku. Vastuseks Postimehe küsimusele ütles ta, et ei tegele poliitikaga ega lähe kaasa inimestevaheliste suhete lõhestamise kampaaniaga. Samuti on ta allikate sõnul õigustanud end väidetega, mida kasutab Vene propaganda.”
https://arvamus.postimees.ee/7782776/juhtkiri-postimees-kehtestab-kaia-kanepile-boikoti
 |
| Postimees Poll |
Russians selling real estate in Estonia,
Americans are buying
(ERR)
“Finnish and Russian nationals are more represented in real estate transactions in Estonia than are other nationalities, with Harju County, including Tallinn, the island of Saaremaa, and Ida-Viru County being the most popular regions.”
—
“There have been some more recent changes, however, including a growth in interest for U.S. and also German citizens. Whereas three years ago, Russians purchased the largest volume of real estate in Harju County, this year it was the Americans 'won' the market and who concluded seven purchase transactions last month totaling over €7 million in value …”
—
"While in the past, Russians were primarily interested in acquiring real estate, the data from this last month reveals that nowadays they are rapidly pulling out of the market, and the transactions largely concern sales.”
https://news.err.ee/1608989725/portal-russians-selling-real-estate-in-estonia-americans-buying
“Finland to see biggest property price drop (7%) in 30 years.” - Yle
Arvo Pärti õnnitleti Rootsi kuninga muusikapreemia puhul
(Postimees)
“23. mail andis Rootsi kuningas Carl XVI Gustaf üle Polar Music Prize´i Eesti helilooja Arvo Pärdile. Ehkki Arvo Pärdi nimel käis Rootsis auhinda vastu võtmas tema poeg Michael Pärt, toimus Pärdi pidulik õnnitlemine ka Arvo Pärdi keskuses, kus kõlisesid šampuseklaasid.”
Exploring the Music of Arvo Pärt
(Crisis Magazine)
“Any Catholic interested in a revival of the arts and questions relating to their place and expression in the face of modernity should discover Arvo Pärt.”
Prigožin intervjuus: Venemaal võib sõjaraskuste kasvades tulla revolutsioon
(ERR)
“Jevgeni Prigožin kritiseeris pikas intervjuus Vene eliiti ja pidas tõenäoliseks, et Venemaa sõjaline olukord pigem halveneb kui paraneb. Prigožin ütles lisaks, et Ukraina demilitariseerimine on ebaõnnestunud ning pigem on Ukraina invasiooni algusega võrreldes rohkem militariseeritud.”
“Russia-Ukraine war will shape international order, says Senior Estonian official.” - Jerusalem Post
“War in Ukraine could last decades, declares Dmitry Medvedev.” - Politico
Valgevene teema sai jätku – Lukašenka teatas tuumarelva vastuvõtmisest
(Postimees)
“Reaalset täiendavat sõjalist ähvardust võrreldes olemasolevaga on venelastel luua väga keeruline, kuigi Valgevenesse tuumarelva paigutamine Ukraina jaoks midagi meeldivat ka ei tähenda. Kuna tuumarelv juba paikneb Kaliningradis, siis ei ole tegemist just märkimisväärse täiendava sõjalise probleemiga NATO riikidele.”
Interview: Roman Anin, Russian investigative journalist
(RFERL)
“I believe that the war of clans for [Putin’s] throne has begun. It doesn't mean that they will overthrow him. Putin is 70-something years old; he’s not a young man. That means that his circle understands that sooner rather than later he will die or he will step down. They realize that they need to work on the different scenarios after his death. And the problem of his circle is that it’s so split, they have been constantly fighting against each other for dozens of years now, for access to him, for the opportunity to influence his decisions, for power. These fights were sometimes not “cold” but fought.”
—
“[Putin] will remain as a near-Hitler, as one of the worst dictators, one of the persons who started one of the cruelest wars in in Europe. He wanted to live on in the history of Russia and the world somewhere in between Peter I and Catherine the Great. But he will be somewhere between Hitler and Qaddafi."
https://www.rferl.org/a/putin-clans-war-russia-interview-succession-ukraine-war/32425962.html
Thursday 25. May
Tuleoht on enne vihma jõudnud kriitilise piirini
Ülle Harju, Postimees
“Tuleoht on enamikus Eesti piirkondades jõudnud kriitilise piiri lähedale ja Valgamaal üle piiri, alates mai teisest nädalast on Eestis puhkenud mitu suurt põlengut nii maastikul kui ka hoonetes. Tuleohuindeksi järgi on suuremas osas Eestist suur või väga suur tuleoht, vaid saartel on oht väiksem, nähtub keskkonnaagentuuri riigi ilmateenistuse kaardilt. Alates neljapäevast vähendab tuleohtu hoovihm.”
—
[The danger of fire has reached near the critical limit in most regions of Estonia and exceeded the limit in Valgamaa.]
https://www.postimees.ee/7781782/tuleoht-on-enne-vihma-joudnud-kriitilise-piirini
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| Fire Hazard in Estonia 26. May 2023 |
NATO air policing to temporarily move from Ämari during 2024
(Airforce Technology)
“… to Latvia and Lithuania, as Ämari Air Base undergoes reconstruction.”
—
“Following the completion of the reconstruction efforts, the allied fighter jets are set to make their return to Estonia. Ämari Air Base is set to launch its inaugural post-reconstruction air policing mission at the start of 2025. The renovation of the Ämari Air Base’s air traffic surfaces and technical systems is necessary because the base has been under heavy usage since 2014. The upcoming reconstruction of Ämari Air Base highlights the strategic importance of these facilities within Nato’s current and future air policing missions, as air patrols are expected to resume from 2025.”
Far-Right Surges in Estonia Amid Outrage Over Tax Increases
(Bloomberg via Yahoo)
“The ultranationalist EKRE party surged to 24.4% weeks after suffering a bruising election defeat to Kallas’s Reform party, which garnered 22.2%, according to a Norstat poll published Wednesday. Kallas scored a commanding election victory on March 5, buoyed by her staunch support of Ukraine and commitment to the NATO alliance.”
https://news.yahoo.com/far-surges-estonia-amid-outrage-080308574.html
The Kremlin Has a Security Problem
By Anna Nemtsova, The Atlantic
“A string of bad news that began earlier this month suggests to Russians that their security system is crumbling. First came the drone attack on the roof of Putin’s residence in the Kremlin on 4. May. Now comes an incursion into Belgorod, demonstrating that a year and a half into the war, the Federal Security Service, or FSB, which is in charge of the borders, does not have the manpower to protect against small units attacking from Ukraine. Russia was not even able to secure a nearby storage site for nuclear-weapons components, known as Belgorod-22—instead it reportedly moved the materiel away.”
—
“Russians in the border regions are beginning to realize that the war that has destroyed dozens of towns and villages in Ukraine is coming to their own land. Nobody seemed to be defending Belgorod ..”
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2023/05/putin-kremlin-security-belgorod/674193/
“Putin’s Russia is now practically defenceless.” - The Telegraph
Ukraine’s Nuclear Moment
(Lawfare)
“When the hammer-and-sickle flag was lowered from the Kremlin for the last time on December 25, 1991, the Soviet Union’s fearsome nuclear arsenal was suddenly spread out over the territory of four independent countries: Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. There was no blueprint for what to do next.”
—
“Mariana Budjeryn’s book “Inheriting the Bomb” tells the story of how one of these new countries, Ukraine, came into possession of the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal—larger than the combined stockpiles of China, France, and the United Kingdom at the time—and decided to disarm peacefully a few years later.”
https://www.lawfareblog.com/ukraines-nuclear-moment
“Making sense of the controversial Budapest Memorandum.” - Lawfare
“Ukraine’s Territorial Integrity and the Budapest Memorandum.” - The Wilson Center
“How the Budapest Memorandum paved the way for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.” - Outrider, June 2022
Wednesday 24. May
Nursipalu kiirkorras laiendamist võimaldav eelnõu läbis esimese lugemise
(ERR)
“Esimese lugemise läbis valitsuse algatatud relvaseaduse muutmise ja sellega seonduvalt teiste seaduste muutmise seaduse eelnõu (144 SE), millega luuakse õiguslikud alused kaitseväe ja Kaitseliidu harjutusväljade arendamiseks erandjuhtudel kiirendatud korras. Vastava õigusliku aluse loomine võimaldab laiendada ka Nursipalu harjutusvälja, mis seletuskirja järgi on praeguses julgeolekukeskkonnas kriitiline eeldus, et tõsta Eesti sõjalise kaitse ja kollektiivkaitse võimet.”
IMF Report on Estonia
(The International Monetary Fund)
“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered a large rise in inflation, supply chain disruptions, and slower growth in key trading partners. These developments, combined with budget under-execution in 2022, led to stagflationary conditions. Lower energy and commodity prices, along with gradually stronger external demand, are expected to support the recovery. A very large fiscal impulse in 2023 is expected to boost growth in the near term but will also leave inflation well above the euro area average. In turn, high inflation is likely to exert pressure on wages which, combined with declining productivity growth, may further erode Estonia’s competitiveness over time.”
—
“A neutral or—at most—an only slightly expansionary fiscal stance in 2023 is needed to help reduce inflation. Together with targeted financial policies to underpin financial stability and structural reforms to address labor market shortages, raise productivity and promote the digital and green transition, this policy mix will help Estonia achieve sustainable and inclusive growth …”
Estonia stares down Russia
(CNN)
“This year, with NATO united, Estonia’s neighbor Finland joining the defense alliance and Sweden expected to follow suit, with Russian forces suffering devastating casualties in Ukraine, the mood in Tallinn among many European and American participants was confident, but the Estonians remain cautious. “The times aren’t going to be easier for us in the near future,” Major General Palm warned. “Russia’s threat is not getting smaller.”
—
“Vladimir Putin has a bigger goal than Ukraine, Estonian officials say: to dissolve the rules-based world order and as long as that’s the goal, Russia will remain the most dangerous immediate and long-term threat to the West. “We know the Russians and Russian know us,” one official told us. “We watch them, and they watch us. We think we know roughly what makes them tick.”
https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/20/world/estonia-russia-narva-threat-intl/index.html
“Latvia turns wary eye on local Russians.” - Christian Science Monitor
Estonia, Latvia to buy German Iris-T SLM air defense system
(Deutsche Welle | Reuters | AP)
“Deliveries of the system, manufactured by weapons maker Diehl Defence, could begin next year and possibly become operational in 2025.”
—
“IRIS-T system consists of truck-mounted launchers, missiles, a radar unit and a separate command vehicle. It is designed to protect cities, armies and civilian populations from air attacks, being capable of defending against planes, helicopters, unmanned aerial vehicles such as drones, cruise missiles and loitering munitions.”
—
“It has an operational range of 40 kilometers (25 miles) and can attain an altitude of 20 kilometers.”
https://www.dw.com/en/estonia-latvia-want-to-buy-german-iris-t-air-defense-system/a-65692645
—
—
“Explainer: Germany's IRIS-T air defense system.” - DW
Nato watches Russian 'Zombies' in Estonia
(BBC)
“‘Zombie’ is code for a Russian aircraft acting suspiciously.”
—
"That can usually be any one of three things," explains Wing Cdr Scott Maccoll from RAF Lossiemouth in Scotland. "Either it won't have filed a flight plan, or they're not squawking [communicating] or they're simply not responding to Air Traffic Control. Sometimes it's all three."
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65673272
Volunteers call off summer search for WWII-period Finnish soldiers
(Yle)
“Searches for Finnish soldiers who fell during the Winter War (1939-1940) and the Continuation War (1941-1944) will not be carried out this summer owing to security concerns, according to Pertti Suominen, who chairs the association for cherishing the memory of war dead.”
—
“Suominen and Slava Skokov, who has been involved in searching for fallen soldiers in Russia, estimate that there are still up to 10,000 Finnish soldiers who have not been found in the Russian terrain.”
“Finland’s Border Protection Efforts Intensify.” - Schengen Visa Info
- Putin’s Forever War -
Russian Offensive Campaign
Assessment 24. & 25. May
(ISW)
“Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed during an interview with Russian political strategist Konstantin Dolgov on May 23 that Wagner lost 10,000 convict recruits and 10,000 full-time professional Wagner fighters killed in action over the course of the Battle for Bakhmut.”
—
“Prigozhin is likely using his heightened profile following the capture of Bakhmut to intensify his attacks against the Russian military establishment and elites.”
—
“Prigozhin is also likely doubling down on his attempts to establish himself as a Russian totalitarian figure who could achieve military victory in Ukraine.”
—
“Russia and Belarus signed agreements formally advancing preparations to deploy Russian tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus as part of a longstanding effort to cement Russia’s de facto military control over Belarus.”
—
“Russia conducted another massive Shahed-131/136 drone strike across Ukraine on the night of May 24 to 25.”
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-24-2023
—
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-25-2023
“Russia’s Frighteningly Fascist Youth.” - Foreign Policy
“Does Opposing Russia’s War Mean Opposing All Russians?” - The Bulwark
“Russia signs deal to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus.” - AP
“Belgorod: the Russian region now part of Putin’s war on Ukraine.” - The Guardian
“Russia claims Bakhmut, yet hope remains within the city walls.” - Christian Science Monitor
“Belgorod: the Russian region now part of Putin’s war on Ukraine.” - Guardian
“Russia’s fake news machine has a fresh target: Russians themselves.” - Spectator
The Digital Gulag: Kremlin’s new technology to control Russia
By Dasha Litvinova, AP via Christian Science Monitor
“Rights advocates say that Russia under President Vladimir Putin has harnessed digital technology to track, censor, and control the population, building what some call a “cyber gulag” – a dark reference to the labor camps that held political prisoners in Soviet times.”
—
“It’s new territory, even for a nation with a long history of spying on its citizens.”
—
“The Kremlin has indeed become the beneficiary of digitalization and is using all opportunities for state propaganda, for surveilling people, for de-anonymizing internet users,” said Sarkis Darbinyan, head of legal practice at Roskomsvoboda, a Russian internet freedom group the Kremlin deems a “foreign agent.”
It’s Not Enough for Ukraine to Win. Russia Has to Lose
By Eliot A. Cohen, The Atlantic - 19. May
“We should want victory as Ukraine defines it. But to achieve it, the West must not only aid in the defeat of Russia—it must convince Russia that it has been defeated.”
—
“A Russia that prevails would be a Russia even further empowered to meddle in Europe and to expand its influence with unlimited violence; a Russia that will have learned that it can commit slaughter and atrocities with impunity; a Russia whose ambitions will grow with success. A Russian victory would, as well, teach the world that the West—including the United States—lacks the resolve, despite its wealth, to follow through on its commitments, offering Beijing an encouraging lesson.”
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/05/ukraine-victory-russia-defeat/674112/
Opinion: Kyiv is under fire. I saw why Ukraine can win
By Max Boot, Washington Post
““Kyiv does not feel like a city under siege. It is a bustling, vibrant metropolis with traffic jams and crowded bars and restaurants. Mayor Vitali Klitschko told us that its population, which had been 3.8 million before the war, is now back to 3.6 million — albeit including 300,000 refugees from war-torn parts of Ukraine. The northern suburbs of Kyiv, which the Russian army reached in March 2022, remain full of burned-out buildings, but war damage is hard to find inside the city limits. The eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut — site of the largest land battle in Europe since World War II — is only about 360 miles away, but it feels far more distant.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/05/22/kyiv-ukraine-resistance-russia-victory/
Two Weeks at the Front in Ukraine
By Luke Mogelson, The New Yorker
“In the trenches in the Donbas, infantrymen face unrelenting horrors, from missiles to grenades to helicopter fire.”
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/05/29/two-weeks-at-the-front-in-ukraine
Who are the ‘Freedom of Russia Legion’
(Reuters)
“Fighting in Russia's western Belgorod region entered a second day on Tuesday following a military incursion from Ukraine. Kyiv has denied any role and said the attackers are Russian citizens. Two groups - the Russian Volunteer Corps (RVC) and Freedom of Russia Legion - have claimed responsibility.”
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/who-are-armed-fighters-russias-belgorod-region-2023-05-23/
“Legion of Free Russia and Russian Volunteer Corps storm border region.” - Politico
A subservient nation? Russia seems prone to authoritarian rulers. Meduza unpacks one theory about why
(Meduza)
“In trying to explain why Russians have not “simply overthrown Putin,” some recent critics have reverted to an old trope, calling Russia a “subservient nation.” When Georgia’s legislature considered adopting a law on “foreign agents” that resembled legislation Russia has used over the last decade to suppress dissent, protestors in Georgia shouted “Russians! Are Slaves!” And in October 2022, Ukraine’s former foreign affairs minister Volodymyr Ohryzko said, “The Russian nation is a subservient nation that doesn’t understand what free will or self-governance are. …”
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/05/19/a-subservient-nation
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