By Minna Ålander
(Lawfare)
“While Finland’s NATO membership is good news for Sweden, the wider Nordic-Baltic region, and NATO as a whole, Sweden’s exclusion is a headache from a defense planner’s point of view. A glance at the map of the Baltic Sea explains why: Sweden’s central geographic location makes it important for military mobility and security of supply in the whole Nordic-Baltic region. Swedish territory connects the Norwegian Atlantic coast in the Arctic to Northern Finland and reaches all the way down to the southern Baltic Sea. The Swedish island of Gotland in the middle of the Baltic Sea has served as a logistical hub often in the past millennium and will be an important puzzle piece for NATO’s defense plans for the Baltic States today. Integrated air and missile defense capabilities on this strategic island could reduce and even reverse the dangers to NATO from the Russian so-called anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) bubble around Kaliningrad and the Suwalki Gap. … How large of a problem Sweden’s delayed accession poses … depends on the time frame. ”
https://www.lawfareblog.com/incomplete-without-sweden-finlands-nato-accession-and-future-nord-nato
“Finland officially joins Nato: As it happened.” - Yle
“How Vladimir Putin Saved NATO.” - Project Syndicate
“Nato's border with Russia doubles as Finland joins.” - BBC
“Estonia welcomes Finland’s accession into NATO.” - Baltic Times
“Finland joins NATO, doubling alliance’s land border with Russia.” - Washington Post
“Piltuudis: Stenbocki maja värvus Soome lipu värvidesse.” - Lõunaeestlane
“Soome on sõjaliste kulutuste osakaalu järgi NATO-s viiendal kohal.” - ERR
“Russia Won’t Sit Idly By After Finland and Sweden Join Nato.” - War on the Rocks
“Kuidas muudab Soome liitumine NATOga piirkonna julgeolekuolukorda?” Postimees
“Soome ostab Iisraelilt õhukaitseks maailma parimaks peetava Taaveti lingu.” - Postimees
“Four maps explain how Finland could alter NATO’s security.” - Washington Post
“Putin Is In A Really Bad Spot: Finland Just Joined NATO.” - 19fortyfive
“Finland joins NATO as Russia warns of countermeasures.” - France24
“Finnish Firepower: The Weaponry Of Russia's New NATO Neighbor.” - RFERL
Russia Escalates Its War on Reporters
By Anna Nemtsova
(The Atlantic)
“The arrest on spying charges of the American journalist Evan Gershkovich is a grave—and cynical—new stage in Vladimir Putin’s repressions."
—
“Multiple Russian sources told me (Ms. Nemtsova) that, according to their knowledge of how Russia’s government operates, such a consequential action—the first arrest of an American journalist on espionage charges since the Soviet era—could not have been authorized without President Vladimir Putin’s assent. They also said that the razrabotka, an old KGB term for a surveillance and investigation operation, had begun against Gershkovich weeks before his arrest. It had been triggered, they said, by a paragraph in an article published in late December that carried his byline, along with those of three other Journal staff.”
“Evan Gershkovich’s WSJ article.” - Wall Street Journal
Friday 7. April
Because of Good Friday, the
newsletter was sent out
Thursday evening.
Thursday 6. April
Kaja Kallase teise valitsuse viimane istung
(ERR)
“Neljapäeval toimus tõenäoliselt viimane Reformierakonna, Isamaa ning Sotsiaaldemokraatliku Erakonna koalitsiooni ehk Kaja Kallase teise valitsuse korraline istung. See valitsus astus ametisse mullu 18. juulil. Praeguse plaani järgi peaksid nädalavahetusel selguma Reformierakonna, Eesti 200 ja SDE ministrikandidaadid. Uus valitsus võib ametisse astuda juba tuleval nädalal.”
https://www.err.ee/1608939641/galerii-kaja-kallase-teise-valitsuse-viimane-istung
Arvamus: Uus riigikogu unistagu suurelt
Kersti Kaljulaid
(Postimees)
“President Kersti Kaljulaid soovib ametisse astuvale riigikogule tahet ja julgust viia ellu oma poliitilised unistused.”
https://arvamus.postimees.ee/7748566/kersti-kaljulaid-uus-riigikogu-unistagu-suurelt
Lähiajal saavad tuhanded reservväelased kutse Eesti ajaloo suurimale õppekogunemisele
(Pärnu Postimees)
“Järgnevatel nädalatel saadetakse rohkem kui 10 000 reservväelasele kutsed sügisel algavale maakaitseüksuste õppusele Ussisõnad, mille raames värskendatakse võitlejate individuaalseid sõjalisi baasteadmisi ja harjutatakse jao- ning rühma tasemel vastase kulutamist ja varitsuste ning tõkete püstitamist.”
—
“Õppus Ussisõnad on Eesti ajaloo suurim reservväelaste õppekogunemine, kuhu ootame osalema ligi 10 000 reservväelast, kes määrati 2022. aasta jooksul maakaitseüksuste koosseisu,” ütles kaitseväe juhataja kindral Martin Herem lisades, et kuigi maakaitseüksused on seotud kindla territooriumiga ja nende ülesanded on vähem väljakutsuvad kui manööverüksustel, kujuneb õppekogunemine siiski intensiivseks.”
Finland: Sanna Marin formally tenders resignation as prime minister
(Yle | ERR | Helsinki Times)
“Marin, whose party, the Social Democrats (SDP), finished third at last Sunday's elections, submitted her resignation letter to President Sauli Niinistö, at the latter's official Helsinki residence, Mäntyniemi.”
—
https://news.err.ee/1608940358/sanna-marin-formally-tenders-resignation-as-finland-s-prime-minister
—
“Finland's Marin steps down as party leader.” - Reuters
“Marin’s international fame disguised her domestic woes.” - The New Statesman
“World media reacts to Finland's famous PM's election loss.” - Yle
 |
| Sanna Marin speaks during a news conference on the day of the parliamentary elections. Photo: Reuters | April 2, 2023 |
Finland’s election: What to expect next
(The Conversation)
“The final election result showed a significant shift to the right – and increased success for rightwing populists in particular. The next government is therefore likely to be a coalition of rightwing parties but difficult negotiations lie ahead.”
—
“Marin received a very high number of personal votes and her party actually increased its vote share and parliamentary seats but it was not enough to make up for the significant losses suffered by her coalition partners.”
—
“So even with the election over, it remains to be seen if Finnish politics is about to switch from being a source of international inspiration to being run according to a rightwing populist isolationist ideology.”
Lithuania Seeks Compensation From Belarus For Migrant Crisis
(RFERL)
“… up to 120 million euros ($130 million) … accusing its eastern neighbor of orchestrating the immigration of thousands of people, mainly from Africa and the Middle East.”
https://www.rferl.org/a/lithuania-belarus-compensation-migrant-crisis/32352269.html
British think tank ranks Estonia’s prosperity 21st highest in the world
(Estonian World)
“… among 167 ranked countries.”
Ukraine Must Win Its War with Russia
(National Interest)
“Surely no one sees the war in Ukraine as a net positive. The toll in lives on both sides, the destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure, and the Russian human rights violations, not to mention the high cost to Western economies in an era of ballooning deficits and high inflation all add up to an unmitigated catastrophe. No one can be happy with the conflict, except perhaps for China, which increasingly benefits from the relegation of Russia to its ever more junior status in their unequal Eurasian partnership …”
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/ukraine-must-win-its-war-russia-206382
Putin and Lukashenko hold talks on closer defence and economic ties
(Euronews)
“Russia’s President Vladimir Putin is holding talks in Moscow with his Belarus counterpart, Alexander Lukashenko, on expanding political, military, and economic ties between the two countries. A strong supporter of Putin, Lukashenko arrived in the city on Wednesday for two days of meetings which included discussions on plans to deploy Russian nuclear weapons to Belarus. Deploying these tactical weapons to Belarus would put them closer to potential targets in Ukraine and NATO members in Eastern and Central Europe.”
Wednesday 5. April
Koduks peetud majadest pagendatud ukrainlased naasevad tagasi sõjakolletesse
(Pealinn)
“Nagu üks eakam proua ka väga hästi kokku võttis, öeldes, et ta uskus Eesti riiki. Nüüd pole sellest usust enam midagi järel,“ rääkis Põhja-Tallinna linnaosa vanem Manuela Pihlap Ukraina sõjapõgenike välja tõstmisest Kopli tänaval.”
—
“Kopli tänava ühiselamutes on nüüd vaikne. Sajad Ukraina põgenikud, kes elasid Kopli ja Mäepealse majades, pidid viimaste päevade jooksul koduks saanud korteritest lahkuma. Sedapuhku ei aetud neid minema mitte küll Vene, vaid hoopis Eesti riigi poolt. Mis on aga sellise teguviisi põhjuseks, see jääb nii linnavõimudele kui ühiselamu asukaid abistanud vabatahtlikele täielikuks mõistatuseks.”
“Estonia: Study on the needs of refugees who fled the war in Ukraine.” - The European Commission
Hispaania tõi Eestisse keskmaa õhutõrjesüsteemi NASAMS
(ERR)
“Hispaania tõi Eestisse keskmaa õhutõrjesüsteemi NASAMS. Eesti ja Läti on kuulutanud välja ühishanke keskmaa õhutõrje süsteemide soetamiseks. Kuni omal neid relvi pole, otsib Eesti võimalust sarnaselt õhuturbemissioonile leida rotatsiooni korras partnereid õhutõrjemissiooni loomiseks.”
https://www.err.ee/1608938684/hispaania-toi-eestisse-keskmaa-ohutorjesusteemi-nasams
Hoiupõrsas tühi. Maksude kallale minemisest ilmselt pääsu pole
(Delfi)
“Koalitsioonikõnelustel on üle nädala arutatud riigi majanduslikku seisu, kuid kokkulepeteni pole jõutud. Majandusteadlane Kaspar Oja ütles, et kui riik tahab rohkem kulutada, kuid soovib samal ajal ka häid sotsiaaltoetusi, siis peabki tulusid kasvatama – näiteks lisamaksude kaudu.”
Eesti elavaima liiklusega teel on toimunud salakaubaveo plahvatus
(ERR)
“Ikla-Pärnu teelõigul on toimumas midagi anomaalset – ainuüksi tänavu esimese kolme kuuga on Eesti elavaima liiklusega lõigul tabatud üle kümne suure salakaubasaadetise. Asjatundjate sõnul on plahvatuse taga suure tõenäosusega Venemaa-vastased sanktsioonid, mis lõid segamini ka kurjategijate kaubateed.”
https://www.err.ee/1608938468/eesti-elavaima-liiklusega-teel-on-toimunud-salakaubaveo-plahvatus
Estonian Defense Forces company to be deployed to Iraq this month
(ERR)
“… as part of the US-led Operation Inherent Resolve. The EDF unit will be responsible for base protection, rapid response and providing security for key personnel. According to a Riigikogu mandate, up to 110 members of the Estonian Defense Forces will go to Iraq during in the first rotation, the duration of which, will be approximately six months.”
https://news.err.ee/1608938477/estonian-defense-forces-company-to-be-deployed-to-iraq
“Eesti Kaitseväe üksus siirdub välisoperatsioonile Iraaki.” - Estonian World Review
Estonian president invites new Riigikogu composition to opening session
(Postimees)
“Estonian President Alar Karis on Monday signed the decision to invite the 15th Riigikogu to its first session next Monday, April 10, at 2 p.m. The results of the March 5 parliamentary elections came into effect at the end of last week, when the National Electoral Committee confirmed the names of members of the Riigikogu, the president's office said on Monday.”
“Üle Poole Miljoni Euro: Esimene sats lahkuvaid rahvasaadikuid saab riigilt hüvitist.” - Postimees
FBI charges Estonian national with helping Russian military acquire U.S. electronics
(Estonian World Review | Postimees)
“An eighteen-count indictment was unsealed today in Brooklyn charging Andrey Shevlyakov, an Estonian national, with conspiracy and other charges related to procuring U.S.-made electronics on behalf of the Russian government and military. Shevlyakov was arrested on March 28, 2023 in Estonia.”
—
“As alleged, for more than a decade, the defendant has been acquiring sensitive electronics from U.S. manufacturers on behalf of the Russian government …”
—
NATO struggles to replace its chief
(Politico Europe)
“The job is suddenly politically sensitive and high-profile, driving people to float names like Ursula von der Leyen that are unlikely for now. …”
https://www.politico.eu/article/war-nato-struggle-replace-jensstoltenberg-ursula-von-der-leyen/
“Eesti soovib NATO-Vene erisuhte ametlikku lõpetamist.” - Postimees
“Ukraina ja NATO suhe selgub Leedus.” - Wall Street Journal/Postimees
“Estonian foreign minister urges NATO to annul 1997 Founding Act with Russia.” - Anadolu Agency
“Estonia Urges More NATO Spending to Thwart Threat From Russia.” - Bloomberg
Finland’s election winner: Petteri Orpo
(Politico Europe)
“Finland swaps partying Sanna Marin for prudent Petteri Orpo as economic fears grow. … Orpo convinced voters that the Finnish economy was in trouble and that he — rather than his free-spirited and freer-spending rival Sanna Marin — was the steady hand Finland needs. The shift will mark a radical change in tone for Finland and for the wider European political scene. Marin, a popular personality on the left of EU politics, found herself in hot water last year after a video emerged of her dancing exuberantly at a party with friends. Yet it was her government’s reputation on economic policy that cost her.”
Why did Sanna Marin lose Finland’s election on Sunday?
(The Guardian)
“Sanna Marin was the most popular prime minister in Finland this century. She was praised for her handling of the Covid pandemic and led her country to join Nato with overwhelming support. … By some measures, Marin and the SDP did pretty well: for a governing party to increase its vote share is unusual in Finland, and Marin’s personal popularity was a central part of their pitch to voters.”
—
“While Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a huge issue in Finland – and the reason behind its new membership of Nato – it was not a point of disagreement in the election. Instead, as Marin tacked to the left to shore up the SDP’s support, the right successfully leaned into concerns about Finland’s growing national debt and persuaded voters that it was time to cut social programmes to balance the books. “After the pandemic and the war, the economy has come back to the forefront.”
“Soome sotside juht Marin taandub parteijuhi kohalt valimistulemuse tõttu.” - ERR
Compulsory military service to be re-introduced in Latvia
(Latvian Broadcasting)
“It is planned that the first voluntary conscription will launch the service on July 1 of this year. Volunteers must apply quickly – until May 15 …”
Interview: Richard Haass, former Director of Policy Planning - US State Department
(Project Syndicate, 21. March)
“This is not a war about NATO enlargement or a future expansion to include Ukraine (which was not about to happen). It is not about NATO at all, or the United States, for that matter. This is a war initiated by Russia to eradicate Ukraine as a sovereign entity. Ukraine represented an alternative path for a Slavic nation – one characterized by a democratic political system and deep ties to the West. This was and is unacceptable to Putin, lest it stoke demands at home to shift Russia onto a similar path.”
- Putin’s Forever War -
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment - 4. April & 5. April
(ISW)
“The Kremlin continues to attempt to employ nuclear threats to deter Western military aid provisions to Ukraine ahead of Ukraine’s planned counteroffensive.”
—
“The Kremlin continued efforts to (falsely) reassure the Russian public that the war in Ukraine will not have significant long-term economic consequences.”
—
“Putin called for the continued economic, legal, and social integration of occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts into the Russian Federation and emphasized the importance of Russian “restoration” efforts in occupied areas in facilitating the integration process.”
—
“The Kremlin is likely increasingly struggling to maintain loyalty among lower-level regional authorities as it continues to place the onus on funding the war on Russian federal subjects.”
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-4-2023
—
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-5-2023
“Photojournalist Heidi Levine on what she saw in Bucha.” - Meduza
“FSB hakkas küsitlema mobilisatsioonist kõrvale jäänud mehi.” - Postimees
“WSJ: Vladimir Putin süüdistas Ukraina sõjas Ameerikat.” - Postimees
‘Not a single step back!’
(Meduza)
“In a booklet issued to soldiers, the Russian authorities denounce the army’s ‘shameful’ retreat from Kherson and urge a return to ‘Stalinist methods’.”
—
“In the fall of 2022, Russia’s Western Military District released a pamphlet titled “Memo to Russian Armed Forces Serviceman Participating in the Special Military Operation.” Military authorities have been issuing the booklet to Russian soldiers who deploy to Ukraine ever since.”
—
Meduza has obtained a copy of the document. Its cover shows a map of Ukraine that omits Crimea and highlights the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in red (the country’s other occupied territories aren’t designated).
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/04/05/not-a-single-step-back
Putin, Isolated and Distrustful, Leans on Handful of Hard-Line Advisers
By Evan Gershkovich, and others
(Wall Street Journal, Dec. 2022)
“For months, a trickle of Russian officials, pro-government journalists and analysts tried to bring word in person to their president about how his invasion was floundering, according to people familiar with the matter.”
—
“When one longtime pollster reached out to Mr. Putin’s office about a survey showing lower-than-expected public support soon after the invasion, his office responded, using Mr. Putin’s first name and his patronymic middle name, “Vladimir Vladimirovich doesn’t need to be upset right now,” according to a person familiar with the exchange.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/putin-russia-ukraine-war-advisers-11671815184
Putin's plan to station nukes in Belarus shows Russia's weakness
(NBC News)
“Putin’s announcement that he would deploy the weapons on the territory of Moscow’s trusted neighbor and ally — which comes as Russia’s military is struggling to claim any new successes on the battlefield — was decried as “dangerous and irresponsible” by NATO, while Kyiv said it threatened “the international security system as a whole.”
—
“But the move is most likely just the latest attempt to use nuclear threats to intimidate Ukraine’s allies, military analysts said, and it may not just widen the ever-growing chasm between Moscow and the West but potentially test Russia’s growing friendship with China.”
New Decree on Foreign Policy Fails to Hide Russia’s Falsity
(Jamestown)
“On March 31, President Vladimir Putin signed a new decree on Russia’s “Foreign Policy Concept,” an odd document that attempts to combine the Kremlin’s distorted worldview with an inflated perception of Russia’s role in the world, aiming to beguile the states of the Global South.”
—
“The new foreign policy concept is a serious departure from the previous one, approved under very different circumstances in November 2016, when confrontation with the West—caused by the annexation of Crimea and the crude manipulation of violent conflict in Donbas—appeared manageable (Meduza.io, March 31). Now, the United States (official discourse duly incorporates the preposterous term “Anglo-Saxon”) is described as “the main inspirator, organizer and executor of the aggressive anti-Russian policy of [the] collective West,” which along with its “satellites” try to “contain the natural course of history.”
https://jamestown.org/program/new-decree-on-foreign-policy-fails-to-hide-russias-falsity/
Kaliningrad: An imperial gem and a thorn in everyone’s side
(Meduza)
“When the USSR collapsed in 1991, and the neighboring Baltic countries regained independence, the territory and its residents were cut off from the rest of the newly formed Russian Federation, turning the Kaliningrad region into an exclave, which by the early 2000s would find itself wedged between E.U. and NATO members Lithuania and Poland.”
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/04/06/kaliningrad-an-imperial-gem-and-a-thorn-in-everyone-s-side
__________
_____
__
