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13 September, 2017



The Zapad 2017 show begins 14. September.


Delfi: Zapad Teemaleht

Õhtuleht: Zapad Teemaleht

CEPA: The Road to Zapad

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✔︎ Decoding Zapad-2017
by Kalev Stoicescu
(International Centre for Defence and Security - Tallinn)
[An excellent analysis and summary by Mr. Stoicescu.]



✔︎ All quiet on the eastern front
(Politico - Europe)
"In Baltics, residents unperturbed by Russia’s Zapad military maneuvers.”
"An antiques shop owner in (Narva), who goes only by the name Natalia, also describes the town as “peaceful.” 
"From far away, the situation in Estonia or the Baltic countries seems worse than what it actually is, living here,” says Merilin Piipuu, who manages the Museum of Occupations in Tallinn, Estonia."
--
"Asked if he expects war to break out, Rokas Pukinskas, the spokesperson of the Lithuanian state border guard service, responds, “Absolutely not.”


"What is less known in the West is that there are actually two Zapad drills. There is the Belarus-Russia joint military exercise from September 14 to 20, mostly on the territory of Belarus. But at the same time there is a separate Russian exercise on Russian territory that we know very little of.” 
Map: Raam op Rusland

- Russia’s Military Drills Near NATO Border Raise Fears of Aggression
by Dr. Philip Karber
(The Potomac Foundation - August 2017)
“Recognizing the Russian Problem and NATO and US preparations ahead of Russia’s ZAPAD 2017 Exercise."
Also:




- Porošenko: Venemaa valmistub sõjaks
(Postimees)
"Ukraina president Petro Porošenko hoiatas, et sõjaline suurõppus Zapad näitab, kuidas Venemaa president Vladimir Putin valmistab vägesid ette sõjaks Ida-Euroopas …"



- USA kindral: USA väed jõuavad 24 tunniga igale poole maailmas
(ERR)
"USA transpordiväejuhatuse ülem kindral Darren McDew ütles visiidil Tallinnas, et tuleval nädalal algavaid Venemaa õppusi Zapad jälgitakse tähelepanelikult ja pingete leevendamiseks võiks Moskva olla oma tegevuses läbipaistvam. Kindral lisas, et erinevalt teistest riikidest suudavad USA väed olla 24 tunniga kohal igal pool maailmas."



- Why does the joint Russian-Belarusian military exercise Zapad 2017 cause concern?
(Raam op Rusland)
"What is less known in the West is that there are actually two Zapad drills. There is the Belarus-Russia joint military exercise from September 14 to 20, mostly on the territory of Belarus. But at the same time there is a separate Russian exercise on Russian territory that we know very little of. Belarus is responsible only for the planning of Zapad on its own territory and is not involved in the drills in Russia."



- Russia threatens Finland, Baltic states
by Petri Mäkelä
(Medium - login required)
"So far it has been confirmed that Russia is moving several VDV airborne units around … Strangest one so far has been the deployment of the Ryazan paratroopers into Olyanovsk, that is located far north near the Finnish border."
--
"In the Kaliningrad region Russian authorities have began a large scale call up of the reservists. Most reservists and even military aged men, that have not served before, were issued orders to report for service."
"There are also indicators that large parts of the 20th Combined Arms Army are moving towards the Leningrad region, that is the home for the 6th Army. The combined force would have most of the combat strength of three separate armies.”
"From the currently known deployments it certainly looks like the focus of the operations around Zapad 2017 will be aimed up north. In this scenario, there would be an invasion force capable of seriously threatening Finland via the Karelian isthmus, coupled with supporting forces in the north.”



Zapadi puhul on võtmeküsimus Poola-Leedu piir
(ERR)
“… Venemaa suurõppuse Zapad 2017 valguses on Balti riikide julgeoleku võtmeküsimus Poola-Leedu piiril asuva Suwalki koridori turvalisus."



Podcast: War Porn
Brian Whitmore, Mark Galeotti, Michael Kofman
(RFERL)
"It's saber-rattling! It's a psyop! It's Zapad!”


A Twitter parody account


- Grybauskaitė: Zapad on mõeldud Leedu hirmutamiseks
(Postimees)



- Zapad's goal is 'to frighten us'- Lithuanian president
(Baltic Times)
“… this is what the goal of the Zapad exercise is: to frighten us, to break our will to defend ourselves so that we are paralyzed and can do nothing in our state …"



- Russia to use "Zapad-2017" exercise to intimidate its neighbours
(Jane's Intelligence Weekly)
“… a key political objective of Zapad-2017 is for Russia to intimidate its eastern European neighbours with a display of its upgraded military capabilities."
--
"According to the Baltic States, the last Zapad-series exercise in 2013 involved 75,000 military personnel, six times higher than Russia disclosed."



Zapad 2017: The Information War (for now)
(OSW)
"Russia treats the Zapad strategic exercises, which have been held every four years since 2009, as part of its information war with the West each time. However, whereas between 2009 and 2013 the propaganda impact of the reports about the exercises was largely local, limited mainly to the three Baltic states and Poland, as a result of the Russian aggression towards Ukraine and the three years and counting of war in the Donbas in 2017, it has now become one of the main factors affecting the relations of Russia with all the North Atlantic Alliance …”
"Russia’s use of the Zapad-2017 exercises as the starting point for a military operation – the occupation of Belarus, a strike at Ukraine or even blocking the Suwalki Gap (which the exercises’ political scenario, disclosed on 29 August, might suggest), and the possible amputation of the three Baltic states from the rest of the NATO area – should be considered as extremely unlikely …"



- Saksamaa hinnangul võtab Zapadist osa hoopis 100,000 sõdurit
(Postimees)
"Vaieldamatult on tegu venelaste jõudemonstratsiooniga,» ütles Saksa kaitseminister Ursula von der Leyen ELi kaitseministrite kohtumise raames Tallinnas ajakirjanikele."



Moskva: Berliini väide Zapadi mahu kohta on üllatav
(ERR)

- France, Germany Denounce Russia's Strategy Of 'Intimidation,' Dispute Size Of War Games
(RFERL)
"We will monitor the [Zapad 2017] activity closely and we are vigilant but also calm, because we don't see any imminent threat against any NATO ally," Jens Stoltenberg said during a visit to a NATO contingent in Tapa, Estonia.” 



Russia showing off 'power' says Germany's Ursula von der Leyen
(Deutsche Welle | Warsaw Institute)
"Around 100,000 Russian soldiers will take part in the upcoming Zapad 2017 drill, despite Moscow's claims that the drill will only have 12,700 participants."
- China Quietly Looms Over Zapad Exercises
(The Diplomat)
"Russia may be entertaining provocative action with the exercise, but anything Russia could do would undermine China’s economic interests in the region and, by extension, Russia’s relationship with its so-called strategic partner."



- Three experts answer three questions about Zapad 2017
Joerg Forbrig | Janusz Bugajski | Jaroslav Naď
(Visegrad Insight)



- Once Putin’s War Games Begin in Belarus, Will He Ever Leave
by Anna Nemtsova
(The Daily Beast)



- Is Lukashenka Worried about the Loyalty of the Belarusian Siloviki?
By Paul Goble
(Window on Eurasia)
"Over the last week, (Belarusian President Alyaksandr) Lukashenka has increased salaries, pensioners, and benefits for the military and the police by as much as 40 percent, a move that means the recipients will have an additional reason for loyalty to him since the increases will bring their standard of living close to Russian counterparts …
"Nikolay Statkevich, a leader of the Belarusian opposition, says that “for the Belarusian army, the Russian president [Putin] is more authoritative than his Belarusian colleague [Lukashenka]” and that such a balance of attitudes makes the upcoming exercise even more dangerous than it otherwise might be …"



Military expert Starykov: Zapad-2017 war games in Belarus designed to demonstrate Russia’s military power
(Euromaidan Press)
“(Military expert Oleh) Starykov claims the greatest danger for Ukraine is aviation training drills carried out by Russian pilots."
--
“Russia fears a global strike. The Kremlin really believes that NATO countries are preparing a global strike that will destroy Russia in a matter of minutes….so Moscow has to show the USA that it can respond. Russians believe there are three wars. The first war is the war with Ukraine; the second involves preparations for a nuclear war, and the third war is aimed at combating terrorist operations. If we look at Zapad-2017 more closely, aviation drills carried out by Russian pilots would be dangerous for our country. We need to close the northern zone.” concluded Starykov.




Zapad military exercise kicks off in one week
(TV Infoservice)
"The maneuvers have caused an unprecedented stir in the European press. Over the past 9 months, they have been mentioned about 800,000 times. Experts point out the media hype comes as no surprise. The drills take place against the backdrop of a difficult military and political situation in the region."
--
"The total number of personnel participating in the Zapad 2017 drills is 12,700 people. About 10,200 military will be involved in the maneuvers in the territory of Belarus."
--
"NATO experts, as well as a number of observers from Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Ukraine, Estonia, Sweden, and Norway are expected to arrive in Belarus. A record number of representatives of foreign media will attend the exercise, too. At the moment the Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs is processing about 270 appeals from foreign media."
https://www.tvr.by/eng/news/obshchestvo/rovno_nedelya_ostalas_do_nachala_ucheniya_zapad_2017/





Minsk struggling to reassure its neighbors about the West-2017 military exercises
(Belarus Digest)

 [A March 2017 article reported that Zapad would be "smaller than anticipated".]



No interest from Western partners in objective information on Zapad 2017
(Belsat)
"One of the journalists asked whether Belarus' efforts to ensure the openness of the military exercise were successful. “These efforts would be successful if our western partners did not attempt to artificially create tensions, if they had a genuine interest in obtaining the objective information about the exercise. We must regretfully state that there is no genuine and real interest.”



Russian ‘polite people’ detain Belarus activist
(Belsat)
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08 September, 2017


NB! Due to a huge volume of stories regarding the upcoming Zapad 2017 military exercises which will be held close to the border of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, a separate email containing Zapad articles will be sent out. Subscribers will receive a separate "Zapad edition" of EstoNews in their email inbox soon. Aitäh!

- Huvitav Neitsitorni ajalugu

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✔︎ September 6, 1991: Soviet Union recognized the independence of the Baltic States

✔︎ Security risk detected in Estonian ID cards (see Weds. list)

✔︎ Russia's bridge link with Crimea moves nearer to completion (see stories in the ‘Ukraine' list)





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Friday 8. Sept. 
_____________


Oscars: Estonia Selects 'November' for Foreign-Language Category
(Hollywood Reporter)
"The film premiered at the Tribeca Film Festival and will be released in North America by Oscilloscope."



PhotosLinnahall's Artwork, Graffiti, Rot
(Postimees Photos)
Tallinn’s Linnahall was completed for Moscow's 1980 Summer Olympics. It suffered over the years due to poor construction - common during Soviet times. This week “controversy" erupted - artists had covered one side of the facility with a huge mural, against the Heritage Conservation Act. The artists have been told to wash it off. 
 Postimees took a series of photos showing that the rest of the Linnahall exterior suffered with ugly graffiti and decay anyway.

Foto: Postimees

- Enne ja Nüüd: Vaata, kuidas on linnahalli nägu muutunud läbi aastate
(Delfi)

- Sults peab Linnahalli seina puhtaks küürima
(Postimees)
"Riigikogu liikme Märt Sultsi eestvedamisel tehti linnahalli seintele suuremõõtmelised seinamaalingud – lubamatu käitumine arhitektuurimälestise kallal on muinsuskaitsjad ärevile ajanud."

- Renovation of Tallinn’s ‘Linnahall’ requires state aid permission
(ERR - 26. July 2017)
"The city wants to turn Linnahall into a conference center, concert venue, and commercial space."



- Eestlane Miamis
(Delfi)
“Meeleolu on esmaspäevast saadik olnud paaniline, olen katnud kinni kõik aknad ja uksed."



- Liitlasvägede liigutamise kiirust Euroopas tuleb parandada
(Postimees)
"Me peame saama oma vägede liigutamisel kiiremaks ning see nõuab nii vastavat planeerimist, harjutamist, taristu arendamist kui paberimajanduse lihtsustamist. Viimase osas näeme suurt potentsiaali just Euroopa Liidul."



- Sa oled tõeline eestlane kui…
(Delfi)
"Sa vaatad mõlemale poole enne tee ületamist, isegi kui see on ühesuunaline.” Või:
"Kui sa külastad oma välismaal elavaid sõpru, võtad sa kaasa Kalevi šokolaadi või Vana Tallinna.” jne...



- The Forefathers of Estonians
(Youtube video)



✔︎ US assumes control of Baltic air policing - larger than usual number of jets
(Stars and Stripes - 31. August)
“... the U.S. assumed the lead in NATO’s Baltic air policing mission here Wednesday, committing to safeguarding the airspace over Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania for the next 120 days. The hand-over from Poland to the U.S. Air Force took place ahead of large Russian war games set to kick off in September across the border from Lithuania, which have worried allies in the Baltics and Poland."

175th Wing, Estonia Integrate For Operation Atlantic Resolve
(DVIDS)



- Boris Johnson sõitis Tapal tankiga
(Postimees)

- Boris Johnson rides a tank during visit to UK troops in Estonia - and is mocked by the Russian Embassy
(Evening Standard-Uk)



- Estonia’s dream for a state-issued cryptocurrency is dashed
(Quartz)
"The president of the European Central Bank yesterday rejected the idea that Estonia, which is part of the euro zone, could issue and manage its own state-backed cryptocurrency. … “No member state can introduce its own currency; the currency of the euro zone is the euro.”




_____________

Thursday 7. Sept.
_____________


Raadio Intervjuu: President Kersti Kaljulaid
(Vikerraadio)
"Kommunismidebatt ei vii meid edasi."



- Disinfo Goes Nuclear in the Baltics
(CEPA)
Pro-Kremlin media outlets use selective facts to claim that “ … the Russian-Belarus Ostrovets Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), situated less than 30 km from the Lithuanian—and the European Union—border, met international safety standards set by the International Atomic Energy Agency …”. In reality, it doesn’t.

- Russia’s Infamous ‘Troll Factory’ Is Now Posing as a Media Empire
(The Moscow Times)

- The Agency
(New York Times - June 2015)
"From a nondescript office building in St. Petersburg, Russia, an army of well-paid “trolls” has tried to wreak havoc all around the Internet …" 



EU: Turkey Can Forget About EU Membership
(World Affairs)
"Turkey will never become a member of the European Union, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel finally said so in public.”
"The notion that Turkey might conceivably fit inside the EU has always been a bit of a stretch, and it has been especially ludicrous since last summer when a botched coup attempt triggered a Stalinist spasm in Ankara. Within just a couple of weeks, Erdogan fired more than 20,000 private school teachers and almost 10,000 police officers. He suspended nearly 3,000 judges and arrested more than 10,000 soldiers. He canned tens of thousands of officials from the Ministry of Education and ousted 1,500 university deans. He closed more than 100 media outlets and suspended more than 1,500 officials in the Ministry of Finance. And from there, it only got worse."





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Wednesday 6. Sept.
_____________


- Security risk detected in Estonian ID cards
(Baltic Times | ERR)
"According to current information, this security risk has not materialized and nobody's digital identity has been thereby misused. … No actual identity theft has taken place. Cards issued before Oct. 16, 2014 use a different microchip and are not affected by the fault."
--
"The risk does not affect Mobile ID and ID cards continue to be functional."
--
"The scientists were not looking at the Estonian ID-card or even its technology, but rather at one of the chips manufactured by Swiss company Gemalto AG. While the chip in question has several applications, the lion’s share lie at the heart of Estonian ID-cards.”



- Ratas: jõuame iga tunniga ID-kaardi turvariski lahendusele lähemale
(ERR)


- Ilves: ühe identiteedi varastamisele kuluv raha ei ole seda väärt
(Delfi)
"Ma väga loodan, et me ei lange hüsteeriasse, mida kasutaksid ära need inimesed, kes tehnoloogiast midagi ei tea."


- Valimiskomisjon: e-hääletamine toimub
(ERR)
"Elektrooniline hääletamine toimub vastavalt seadusele," võttis komisjoni esimees Meelis Eerik vastu otsuse."

- Electoral committee: Online voting in October elections still on
(ERR)

Red faces in Estonia over ID card security flaw
(Financial Times - login required)
"International scientists have informed Estonian officials that they have found a security risk that affects almost 750,000 ID cards and that would enable a hacker to steal a person’s identity."



- KGB man in Manor Savisaar-election coalition
(ERR)
"The October local elections list of Savisaar’s Election Coalition and Active Tallinn includes former Soviet security officer Valeri Konovalov."



History: Soviets Recognize Baltic Independence, Ending 51-year Occupation of 3 Nations
(New York Times - 1991)





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Tuesday 5. Sept.
_____________


- U.S. Unprepared to deal with Russia in Europe
(Politico)
"A self-assessment by the 173rd Airborne Brigade is called ‘a real eye-opener’ to how some critical capabilities to deter Russia have eroded."

- U.S. small units are no longer as well trained as those of our allies
(Foreign Policy)

Why NATO Can’t Move Forces Like Russia Is About To
(Defense One)
"From mismatched rail lines to red tape, a host of obstacles show why NATO needs its own version of Russia's upcoming Zapad 2017 exercise.”

Defending the frontline
(CEPA)



Arvamus: Aeg lõpetada karuteene venelastele
(Postimees)



- Belgia hävitajad asusid Ämarist valvama Balti riikide õhuruumi
(ERR)
In English:



Finland: Growing old as a migrant
(Yle)
"Finland’s population of elderly immigrants is still relatively small, but that will change in the coming decades as larger numbers of migrants reach retirement age."



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Monday 4. Sept.
_____________


Britain to defend Nordic and Baltic states from Russia
(EU Observer)
"British foreign secretary Boris Johnson said in a statement on Monday the UK was a "reassuring presence" for allies facing "Russian antagonism”. He said the fact British soldiers had been sent to Estonia as part of a Nato force to deter Russia was a firm demonstration that Britain will always stand by its allies in the face of outside aggression, and a message to others that the unity that Nato provides and sustains will never be broken."

- UK remains committed to Nordic, Baltic defense after Brexit
(ERR)

- Study reveals average 75% of Europeans trust their national army
(RFERL - Graph)



Opinion: Germany should take initiative against Russian meddling
(ERR)
"It was now up to Germany and Angela Merkel to decide if Russian president Vladimir Putin would be challenged "in a serious enough way" to make him stop disrupting Western democracy, Ilves wrote in a contribution to the Financial Times."

- Merkel must stand up to Putin over the hacking of democracy
by Toomas Hendrik Ilves
(Financial Times - login required)

- Ilves kannustab Financial Timesis Merkelit Putinile vastu astuma
(ERR)



- Lessons Learned on Frosty Roads Help Estonian Kaia Kanepi Gain Traction at U.S. Open
(New York Times)
"Kanepi was on the verge of quitting the sport at the end of last year …"







_____________

Ukraine -
_____________


Putin’s threat: "Other conflict zones" may be attacked if U.S. gives lethal aid to Kyiv
(UNIAN)

Rumor: New "little green men" up and ready
(UAZMI)

- Ukraine Accuses Russia of the Unthinkable: Terror Attacks Against Its Own People
(Observer)
"Vasyl Hrytsak, Ukraine’s secret service chief, gave an interview jam-packed with bombshells about the nasty SpyWar between Kyiv and Moscow. That clandestine struggle is an appendage to the low-boil conflict being waged in Eastern Ukraine between Ukrainian forces and “rebels” who are in fact the Russian military. …"



- Russia's controversial Crimea bridge 
(BBC)


- Recent images from the Kerch Strait show work moving apace to connect Russia with the annexed Crimean Peninsula
(RFERL)
"The Kerch Strait is a notoriously difficult place to build, with undersea mud volcanoes, seismic activity, and drifting ice floes in winter. Some Western analysts have forecast the "collapse" of the Kerch Bridge project." 


- Russia’s illegal Crimean Bridge construction will cost Ukraine
(Kyiv Post | BNE)
"When completed by 2019, the 19-kilometer, $3 billion span will cross the Kerch Straight and connect the Russian mainland with the illegally seized peninsula."
--
"Part of the problem is the new railway bridge section is too low to allow big ships through and so will significantly constrain access to the Azov sea for many Ukrainian ships, potentially causing a loss of up to 43% of traffic for the Mariupol Sea Port, the study found." 


- Dutch companies help build bridge to occupied Crimea, violating sanctions
(Euromaidan Press)


- Closure of Kerch Strait Is Russia’s Latest Attack on Ukrainian Sovereignty
(Daily Signal)


- Russia's bridge link with Crimea moves nearer to completion
(The Guardian)


- Does Putin’s $4 Billion ‘Super Bridge’ Into Europe Violate Law?
(Vocativ)




_____________

- Russia -
"Trust No One"
_____________


- Facebook Blocks 470 Fake Accounts Linked to Russian 'Troll Factory’
(Moscow Times)

- Facebook Admits Russia-Tied Election Ad Buy
(MSNBC | Facebook)
[Ads, posts, etc. are being tied to the infamous St. Petersburg “troll factory”.]
"Our analysis suggests these accounts and Pages were affiliated with one another and likely operated out of Russia."

- Facebooki teatel on ilmselt Venemaalt ostetud tuhandeid USA-sse suunatud lõhestavaid poliitilisi reklaame 
(Delfi)
"Facebook andis oma andmed üle ka Venemaa väidetavat sekkumist USA eelmise aasta presidendivalimistesse uurivale eriprokurörile Robert Muellerile, teatas allikas. Facebook esitas reklaamide koopiad ja andmed nende ostjate kohta."

- Russian Facebook accounts spent $100,000 on election ads
(Deutsche Welle | RFERL)
"Between June 2015 and May 2017, 470 accounts bought ads touting fake or misleading news or directed users to pages with such content. The 3,000 ads did not specifically reference the election, a candidate or voting, but they did allow the amplification of "divisive messages" on issues such as immigration, race and gay rights, according to Facebook."




Twitter: Robotrolling
(NATO StratCom COE - Riga)
“Two in three Twitter users who write in Russian about the NATO presence in Eastern Europe are robotic or ‘bot’ accounts. Together, these accounts created
84% of the total Russian-language messages. The English language space is also heavily affected: 1 in 4 active accounts were likely automated and were responsible for 46% of all English-language content."
--
"Of the four states considered—Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland—Estonia has disproportionately frequently been targeted by bots, whereas Poland and Lithuania have seen the least automated activity."

- What to Expect When You're Expecting Bots
(CEPA)



- The Gerasimov Doctrine
(Politico-Europe)
"Russia’s new chaos theory of political warfare."

- The Value of Science Is in the Foresight
(Military Review)
[Valery Gerasimov’s writing as mentioned in the above article.]



- Three Instructive Russian Anniversaries
(Paul Goble)

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