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13 September, 2017



The Zapad 2017 show begins 14. September.


- Delfi: Zapad Teemaleht

- Õhtuleht: Zapad Teemaleht

- CEPA: The Road to Zapad

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✔︎ Decoding Zapad-2017
by Kalev Stoicescu
(International Centre for Defence and Security - Tallinn)
[An excellent analysis and summary by Mr. Stoicescu.]



✔︎ All quiet on the eastern front
(Politico - Europe)
"In Baltics, residents unperturbed by Russia’s Zapad military maneuvers.”
—
"An antiques shop owner in (Narva), who goes only by the name Natalia, also describes the town as “peaceful.” 
—
"From far away, the situation in Estonia or the Baltic countries seems worse than what it actually is, living here,” says Merilin Piipuu, who manages the Museum of Occupations in Tallinn, Estonia."
--
"Asked if he expects war to break out, Rokas Pukinskas, the spokesperson of the Lithuanian state border guard service, responds, “Absolutely not.”


"What is less known in the West is that there are actually two Zapad drills. There is the Belarus-Russia joint military exercise from September 14 to 20, mostly on the territory of Belarus. But at the same time there is a separate Russian exercise on Russian territory that we know very little of.” 
Map: Raam op Rusland

- Russia’s Military Drills Near NATO Border Raise Fears of Aggression
by Dr. Philip Karber
(The Potomac Foundation - August 2017)
“Recognizing the Russian Problem and NATO and US preparations ahead of Russia’s ZAPAD 2017 Exercise."
Also:




- Porošenko: Venemaa valmistub sõjaks
(Postimees)
"Ukraina president Petro Porošenko hoiatas, et sõjaline suurõppus Zapad näitab, kuidas Venemaa president Vladimir Putin valmistab vägesid ette sõjaks Ida-Euroopas …"



- USA kindral: USA väed jõuavad 24 tunniga igale poole maailmas
(ERR)
"USA transpordiväejuhatuse ülem kindral Darren McDew ütles visiidil Tallinnas, et tuleval nädalal algavaid Venemaa õppusi Zapad jälgitakse tähelepanelikult ja pingete leevendamiseks võiks Moskva olla oma tegevuses läbipaistvam. Kindral lisas, et erinevalt teistest riikidest suudavad USA väed olla 24 tunniga kohal igal pool maailmas."



- Why does the joint Russian-Belarusian military exercise Zapad 2017 cause concern?
(Raam op Rusland)
"What is less known in the West is that there are actually two Zapad drills. There is the Belarus-Russia joint military exercise from September 14 to 20, mostly on the territory of Belarus. But at the same time there is a separate Russian exercise on Russian territory that we know very little of. Belarus is responsible only for the planning of Zapad on its own territory and is not involved in the drills in Russia."



- Russia threatens Finland, Baltic states
by Petri Mäkelä
(Medium - login required)
"So far it has been confirmed that Russia is moving several VDV airborne units around … Strangest one so far has been the deployment of the Ryazan paratroopers into Olyanovsk, that is located far north near the Finnish border."
--
"In the Kaliningrad region Russian authorities have began a large scale call up of the reservists. Most reservists and even military aged men, that have not served before, were issued orders to report for service."
—
"There are also indicators that large parts of the 20th Combined Arms Army are moving towards the Leningrad region, that is the home for the 6th Army. The combined force would have most of the combat strength of three separate armies.”
—
"From the currently known deployments it certainly looks like the focus of the operations around Zapad 2017 will be aimed up north. In this scenario, there would be an invasion force capable of seriously threatening Finland via the Karelian isthmus, coupled with supporting forces in the north.”



- Zapadi puhul on võtmeküsimus Poola-Leedu piir
(ERR)
“… Venemaa suurõppuse Zapad 2017 valguses on Balti riikide julgeoleku võtmeküsimus Poola-Leedu piiril asuva Suwalki koridori turvalisus."



- Podcast: War Porn
Brian Whitmore, Mark Galeotti, Michael Kofman
(RFERL)
"It's saber-rattling! It's a psyop! It's Zapad!”


A Twitter parody account


- Grybauskaitė: Zapad on mõeldud Leedu hirmutamiseks
(Postimees)



- Zapad's goal is 'to frighten us'- Lithuanian president
(Baltic Times)
“… this is what the goal of the Zapad exercise is: to frighten us, to break our will to defend ourselves so that we are paralyzed and can do nothing in our state …"



- Russia to use "Zapad-2017" exercise to intimidate its neighbours
(Jane's Intelligence Weekly)
“… a key political objective of Zapad-2017 is for Russia to intimidate its eastern European neighbours with a display of its upgraded military capabilities."
--
"According to the Baltic States, the last Zapad-series exercise in 2013 involved 75,000 military personnel, six times higher than Russia disclosed."



- Zapad 2017: The Information War (for now)
(OSW)
"Russia treats the Zapad strategic exercises, which have been held every four years since 2009, as part of its information war with the West each time. However, whereas between 2009 and 2013 the propaganda impact of the reports about the exercises was largely local, limited mainly to the three Baltic states and Poland, as a result of the Russian aggression towards Ukraine and the three years and counting of war in the Donbas in 2017, it has now become one of the main factors affecting the relations of Russia with all the North Atlantic Alliance …”
—
"Russia’s use of the Zapad-2017 exercises as the starting point for a military operation – the occupation of Belarus, a strike at Ukraine or even blocking the Suwalki Gap (which the exercises’ political scenario, disclosed on 29 August, might suggest), and the possible amputation of the three Baltic states from the rest of the NATO area – should be considered as extremely unlikely …"



- Saksamaa hinnangul võtab Zapadist osa hoopis 100,000 sõdurit
(Postimees)
"Vaieldamatult on tegu venelaste jõudemonstratsiooniga,» ütles Saksa kaitseminister Ursula von der Leyen ELi kaitseministrite kohtumise raames Tallinnas ajakirjanikele."



- Moskva: Berliini väide Zapadi mahu kohta on üllatav
(ERR)

- France, Germany Denounce Russia's Strategy Of 'Intimidation,' Dispute Size Of War Games
(RFERL)
"We will monitor the [Zapad 2017] activity closely and we are vigilant but also calm, because we don't see any imminent threat against any NATO ally," Jens Stoltenberg said during a visit to a NATO contingent in Tapa, Estonia.” 



- Russia showing off 'power' says Germany's Ursula von der Leyen
(Deutsche Welle | Warsaw Institute)
"Around 100,000 Russian soldiers will take part in the upcoming Zapad 2017 drill, despite Moscow's claims that the drill will only have 12,700 participants."
—
- China Quietly Looms Over Zapad Exercises
(The Diplomat)
"Russia may be entertaining provocative action with the exercise, but anything Russia could do would undermine China’s economic interests in the region and, by extension, Russia’s relationship with its so-called strategic partner."



- Three experts answer three questions about Zapad 2017
Joerg Forbrig | Janusz Bugajski | Jaroslav Naď
(Visegrad Insight)



- Once Putin’s War Games Begin in Belarus, Will He Ever Leave
by Anna Nemtsova
(The Daily Beast)



- Is Lukashenka Worried about the Loyalty of the Belarusian Siloviki?
By Paul Goble
(Window on Eurasia)
"Over the last week, (Belarusian President Alyaksandr) Lukashenka has increased salaries, pensioners, and benefits for the military and the police by as much as 40 percent, a move that means the recipients will have an additional reason for loyalty to him since the increases will bring their standard of living close to Russian counterparts …”
—
"Nikolay Statkevich, a leader of the Belarusian opposition, says that “for the Belarusian army, the Russian president [Putin] is more authoritative than his Belarusian colleague [Lukashenka]” and that such a balance of attitudes makes the upcoming exercise even more dangerous than it otherwise might be …"



- Military expert Starykov: Zapad-2017 war games in Belarus designed to demonstrate Russia’s military power
(Euromaidan Press)
“(Military expert Oleh) Starykov claims the greatest danger for Ukraine is aviation training drills carried out by Russian pilots."
--
“Russia fears a global strike. The Kremlin really believes that NATO countries are preparing a global strike that will destroy Russia in a matter of minutes….so Moscow has to show the USA that it can respond. Russians believe there are three wars. The first war is the war with Ukraine; the second involves preparations for a nuclear war, and the third war is aimed at combating terrorist operations. If we look at Zapad-2017 more closely, aviation drills carried out by Russian pilots would be dangerous for our country. We need to close the northern zone.” concluded Starykov.




- Zapad military exercise kicks off in one week
(TV Infoservice)
"The maneuvers have caused an unprecedented stir in the European press. Over the past 9 months, they have been mentioned about 800,000 times. Experts point out the media hype comes as no surprise. The drills take place against the backdrop of a difficult military and political situation in the region."
--
"The total number of personnel participating in the Zapad 2017 drills is 12,700 people. About 10,200 military will be involved in the maneuvers in the territory of Belarus."
--
"NATO experts, as well as a number of observers from Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Ukraine, Estonia, Sweden, and Norway are expected to arrive in Belarus. A record number of representatives of foreign media will attend the exercise, too. At the moment the Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs is processing about 270 appeals from foreign media."
https://www.tvr.by/eng/news/obshchestvo/rovno_nedelya_ostalas_do_nachala_ucheniya_zapad_2017/





- Minsk struggling to reassure its neighbors about the West-2017 military exercises
(Belarus Digest)

 [A March 2017 article reported that Zapad would be "smaller than anticipated".]



- No interest from Western partners in objective information on Zapad 2017
(Belsat)
"One of the journalists asked whether Belarus' efforts to ensure the openness of the military exercise were successful. “These efforts would be successful if our western partners did not attempt to artificially create tensions, if they had a genuine interest in obtaining the objective information about the exercise. We must regretfully state that there is no genuine and real interest.”



- Russian ‘polite people’ detain Belarus activist
(Belsat)
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