The View From Finland
Major General Pekka Toveri and Colonel Peterri Kajanmaa
(RFERL)
“President Vladimir Putin has himself to blame … For years, Russia has said Finland shouldn't join NATO, but it's Finland's decision, [and that has] been good enough for Finland. But then in December [2021], when President Putin said that Finland can't join NATO and if Finland joins NATO there would be consequences, that was a direct threat, trying to force Finland's hand.”
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“From the politicians' point of view, they realized at that moment that someone else was trying to decide on behalf of Finland and that's not acceptable. It's not President Putin who says what Finland can and cannot do.”
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“Then [regarding] military power, [Putin's] forces are tied up in Ukraine…. Barring nuclear weapons, in conventional terms, they don't have anything with which they could seriously threaten Finland's independence and existence in such a way that they could force our hand, especially now that the United Kingdom and some other NATO countries will give us some assurances of military support if we are attacked.”
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“Finland shares a 1,340-kilometer land border with Russia. … 90% of that border is wilderness, it's just forest…no road, no network, no anything. Attacking with land forces across the border is mostly impossible…. They don't have any land force [to do that]; 80% of their combat-capable land forces are in Ukraine. The garrisons next to the Finnish border have been emptied…. They don't have anything.”
https://www.rferl.org/a/finland-russia-nato-analysis/31869756.html
“Finland's Prime Minister Sanna Marin met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.” - Yle
“Finns are prepared for trouble on road to Nato.” - Helsinki Times
“Finland Joining NATO Is A Game Changer and Russia’s Fault.” - 19fortyfive
The War Won’t End Until Putin Loses
By Anne Applebaum
(The Atlantic)
“The expression ‘off-ramp’ has a pleasing physicality, evoking a thing that can be constructed out of concrete and steel. But at the moment, anyone talking about an ‘off-ramp’ in Ukraine—and many people are doing so, in governments, on radio stations, in a million private arguments—is using the term metaphorically, referring to a deal that could persuade Vladimir Putin to halt his invasion.”
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“The first assumption is that Russia’s president wants to end the war, that he needs an ‘off-ramp’, and that he is actually searching for a way to save face and to avoid, in French President Emmanuel Macron’s words, further “humiliation.”
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“… ‘off-ramp’ remains the wrong metaphor and the wrong goal. The West should not aim to offer Putin an ‘off-ramp’; our goal, our endgame, should be defeat. In fact, the only solution that offers some hope of long-term stability in Europe is rapid defeat, or even, to borrow Macron’s phrase, humiliation. …”
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/05/why-ukraine-must-defeat-putin-russia/629940/
Friday 27. May
Arvamus: Punamonumendid peavad avalikust ruumist kaduma
(Postimees)
“Punamonumentide aeg Eestis on läbi saanud.”
—
[Red monuments must disappear from Estonian public space. More than 30 years have passed since the end of the Soviet occupation. It is high time to say goodbye to that period. The state should develop a workable policy to get rid of them.]
https://arvamus.postimees.ee/7532061/juhtkiri-punamonumendid-peavad-avalikust-ruumist-kaduma
US Non-Recognition of the Forcible Annexation of the Baltic Countries Remains as Important as Ever
By Paul Goble
“Many in the West believe that however valuable US non-recognition of the forcible annexation and occupation of the Baltic countries was in the past and may be in the present as a model for how the West should respond to Russia’s Anschluss of Crimea, it is no longer the case for the Baltic countries. … They are insisting instead that the basis of the claim that the Soviet Union occupied Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania was either statements by Nazi leaders or the product of Cold War propaganda and had no standing in international law. Such claims are simply wrong and must be dismissed. Otherwise, some in the Russian capital may use them as a new basis for aggression.”
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2022/05/us-non-recognition-of-forcible.html
Defending Estonia – Siil 2022
(Joint Forces)
“Siil 2022 is being conducted all over Estonia, with the main action taking place on the island of Saaremaa, in the southern region between and north of the Varga/Võru axis, and on the Keskpolügoon (Central Training Area) of the Estonian Defence Forces.”
https://www.joint-forces.com/exercise-news/54185-defending-estonia-exercise-siil-2022
“Kolonelleitnant Uku Arold: oleme valmis infolahinguteks kõigis erialastes relvaliikides.” - Postimees
“Military vehicle convoys on the move in Estonia during Siil exercise.” - ERR
“US and Finnish navies conducted a manoeuvre exercise in the Baltic Sea.” - Twitter
“Tallinna sadamas seisab suur USA mereväe dessantlaev USS Kearsarge.” - Postimees
“USS Kearsarge arrives in Tallinn, concludes Hedgehog 2022.” - US Navy
“Kearsarge Conducts Operations in the Baltic Sea.” - DVID
“Estonia and Latvia held joint defense exercises in northern Latvia.” - ERR
“NATO allies fire MLRS and HIMARS rocket systems.” - Joint Forces
“Kalle Laanet: The best deterrent against Russia is NATO's presence in Estonia.” - ERR
“With artillery drills over the Baltic Sea, Colorado National Guard helps show the U.S. commitment to Europe.” - Colorado Public Radio
“US Air Force displays equipment at Kuressaare Airport.” - ERR
“RAF Lossiemouth joins Nato allies for training exercises in Lithuania and Estonia.” - The Press and Journal
“Major Estonian Defense Forces exercise SIIL kicks off.” - ERR
“Swedish Officials Ask Pentagon to Increase U.S. Naval Presence in Baltic Sea.” - USNI
Henry Kissinger advocated that Ukraine should cede territory to Russia
By David Aaronovitch, The Times
“In Davos on Monday the 98-year-old Henry Kissinger was speaking on the subject of Ukraine. He advocated that Ukraine should cede territory to Russia to end the war by returning to the “status quo ante”. This would involve Ukraine accepting the Russian occupation of Crimea and agreeing to Russian de facto annexation of two provinces which are still fiercely contested.”
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“Telling Ukraine it must surrender land to Russia reflects an outdated realpolitik that will only fuel future conflict.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/kissingers-immoral-stance-only-helps-putin-3fnfzsxcv
“Latvia's foreign minister compared Kissinger to Neville Chamberlain.” - Twitter
“Lithuanian President calls statements about giving part of Ukraine to Russia unacceptable” - Delfi
“Zelenskiy Slams Kissinger, Compares Him to Appeasers of Hitler.” - Transitions
“Henry Kissinger is wrong. Vladimir Putin deserves nothing less than defeat.” - The Telegraph
“Opinion: Now is not the time to seek a deal with Putin.” - Washington Post
Vladimir Putin and Henry Kissinger shaking hands in 2007 - Credit: Epa/Sergei Chirikov
Thursday 26. May
Opinion: Nato’s next chief should come from Estonia
By Edward Lucas, The Times
“Baltic leaders understand far better than most westerners the expansionist threat of Russia. … Estonians, like their Latvian and Lithuanian neighbours, are not afraid: they are used to living in Russia’s shadow. But they do worry about the squishiness of some western leaders. … But seen from Estonia, pandering to Putin is more dangerous than provoking him.”
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“The insights and expertise of allies such as Estonia should be central to that. They know their giant eastern neighbour far better than we do. They were right when we were wrong. Nato will be looking for a new secretary-general next year. It has never had a female leader, nor one from eastern Europe. I think (Kaja) Kallas would be an admirable successor …”
Narva: The Estonian border city where Nato and the EU meets Russia
By Frank Gardner, BBC
“Narva is a strange place, almost an aberration. … To a first-time visitor it feels like a classic Cold War frontier. Two giant fortresses face each other on opposing sides of the river, with the international border running down the middle.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61555691
Russia Cannot Respond to NATO’s Northern Expansion
(CEPA)
“The Kremlin’s response to the announcement by Finland and Sweden that they plan to join NATO has surprised some. Russian opposition to such a move is long-established and warnings late last year seemed quite menacing. …. Putin said that the expansion of the alliance poses no immediate threat to the Russian Federation, since it has no problems with these countries.”
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“The truth is that the government is unable to develop a meaningful response.”
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“Those military reinforcements that do occur in the Baltic region will be predictable and limited. Threats of a military response, as in many other cases, are aimed at an internal audience to demonstrate Russian power. From NATO’s point of view, Russia will be unlikely to produce any surprises.”
https://cepa.org/russia-cannot-respond-to-natos-northern-expansion/
“Twenty Years of Putin Playing the West in 3 Minutes.” - NYT Opinion
Press briefing: Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson and Prime Minister Kaja Kallas
ERR | Youtube
“Kallas is in Sweden for a two-day official visit together with representatives of Estonian businesses and met with Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson in Stockholm. Following the two prime ministers' statements, a journalist asked whether NATO member state Turkey's concerns regarding Sweden and Finland's accession bids were "valid concerns" or rather bargaining tools.”
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"I can't speak for Turkey; I can only speak for Estonia," Kallas replied. "And of course in NATO, we have 30 allies, and different allies have different times to reflect and really address the concerns that they have. For us, we had already done the thinking regarding Sweden and Finland, and there were no questions. But I guess in some countries it just takes a longer time. For us, the accession process was approximately ten years; for you, it's going to be much, much shorter, so I am certain that we we will overcome all the obstacles on the way.”
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1c6tX1R5D84
“Andersson: Rootsi ei rahasta ega relvasta terroriorganisatsioone.” - Postimees
“Remarks by Prime Minister Kallas at the opening of Estonian-Swedish business seminar.” - Eesti Valitsus
“Lt. Gen. Martin Herem, commander of the Estonian defense forces, took part in a meeting of EU and NATO chiefs of defense in Brussels.” - Baltic Times
“Estonian President Alar Karis talks to Al Jazeera from the World Economic Forum in Davos in Switzerland.” - Al Jazeera video
Welcome to the 21st-century Cold War
(Foreign Policy, 2. May)
“Russian President Vladimir Putin made four major miscalculations before he launched his invasion of Ukraine. He overestimated Russian military competence and effectiveness and underestimated the Ukrainians’ will to resist and determination to fight back. He was also wrong in his assumption that a distracted West would be unable to unite politically in the face of the Russian attack and that the Europeans and the United States’ Asian allies would never support far-reaching financial, trade, and energy sanctions against Russia.”
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“But he did get one thing right: He correctly estimated that … the non-Western world would not condemn Russia or impose sanctions. On the day the war broke out, U.S. President Joe Biden said the West would make sure that Putin became a “pariah on the international stage”—but for much of the world, Putin is not a pariah.”
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/05/02/ukraine-russia-war-un-vote-condemn-global-response/
“Fiona Hill: The future of Russia’s war.” - Chicago Council on Global Affairs
“If Ukraine loses war, we will be next - Latvian defense minister.” - The Baltic Times
“Pentagon Seeks Out Swedish Tech Partnerships.” - National Defence Magazine
Wednesday 25. May
Peaminister Kaja Kallas mõistis Savisaare raiesoolo hukka
Ülle Harju, Postimees
“Raiesurve Eesti metsadele peab vähenema ja alustama peaks riigimetsadest,” kordas Kaja Kallas reformierakonna ja keskerakonna koalitsioonileppes sisalduvat lubadust. “Keskkonnaministeeriumi fookus peaks olema sellel, kuidas muuta meie metsade majandamine jätkusuutlikuks ning tagada Eesti kliimaeesmärkide täitmine.”
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Keskkonnaminister Erki Savisaar teatas eile, et tõstis nii tänavust kui järgneva nelja aasta riigimetsa raiemahtu, lagedaks raiutaks varem plaanitust 2300 hektari võrra rohkem.”
https://www.postimees.ee/7530940/peaminister-kaja-kallas-moistis-savisaare-raiesoolo-hukka
Kaliningradlased on keset EL-i lõksus, lahkumine on keeruline ja kallis
(Postimees, paywall)
“Vene logistikakonsultant Aleksei Bezborodov … ei usu, et lääs kehtestaks mingid eraldi sanktsioonid Kaliningradile. Ta ei näe õigustust Kaliningradi eristamisele välismaailmast, rääkimata piiramisest. Venelase sõnul oleks Kaliningradi eristamine sama, nagu Venemaa Balti laevastik sulgeks näiteks Soome lahel mingi mereala ega lubaks laevu läbi. Bezborodovi peamine sõnum on, et kui EL paneks Kaliningradi täielikku isolatsiooni, maksaks Venemaa kindlasti kätte.”
The Spooky Soviet Pilots’ Cemetery near Amari Air Base
(Sofrep)
“In the secluded stretch of the Estonian forest lies the final resting place of Soviet-Estonian fighter pilots who were killed during the Cold War era. What’s striking and eerily unique about this burial place was that the graves were not marked with tombstones or crosses but with aircraft tail fins.”
Opinion: Some conservatives oppose Sweden and Finland joining NATO. They’re wrong.
(Washington Post)
“Conservatives (in the US) who oppose extending NATO northward make a few simple arguments. Some contend that the two countries would not significantly add to the alliance’s strength. Others argue it would be an unnecessary provocation to Russia, which strongly opposes the expansion. They also note that Finland shares an 830-mile border with Russia, which could increase the chance of conflict. None of these arguments should be blithely ignored, but the balance of factors weighs in the opposite direction. …”
Finland and Sweden begin talks with Turkey over Nato objections
(Yle)
“Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has accused the two Nordic nations of "protecting terrorists" and issued a list of demands that must be met before talks can proceed. The list included measures related to the alleged protection of members of the PKK and its Syrian offshoot, the YPG, which Turkey has designated as terrorist organisations.”
https://yle.fi/news/3-12461939
“Turkey in NATO: Disruption as a Policy.” - Carnegie Europe
“NATO bid reignites Sweden’s dispute with Turkey over Kurds.” - Politico
“It’ll take weeks of talks to resolve Nato dispute between Finland, Turkey.” - Helsinki Times
“Finland froze €80m in Russian assets.” - Helsinki Times
“The Case for Nordic and NATO Realism.” - Project Syndicate
Läänemere jääkatte hääbumine laseb tormid rannikut rüüstama
(Novaator)
“Läänemere idarannikut kaitsnud merejää moodustub temperatuuritõusu tõttu hiljem, mis laseb sügistalvistel tormidel üha kauem rannikut räsida. Märkimisväärselt on kasvanud randa jõudnud laineenergia hulk just Soome lahe ääres, viitab hiljutine uuring.”
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“Soome laht jääb nende kahe äärmuse vahepeale. ... Keskmiselt püsib seal merejää praegu kaks kuud. Juba 1°C õhutemperatuuri tõus võib lükata Läänemere piirkonnas aga jääkatte moodustumist edasi kuni paar nädalat. Tüüpiliselt on see langenud ligilähedaselt kokku piirkonna kõige tuulisema ja tormiderikkama ajaga.”
https://novaator.err.ee/1608607729/laanemere-jaakatte-haabumine-laseb-tormid-rannikut-ruustama
Paper: Effect of ice cover on wave statistics and wave-driven processes in the northern Baltic Sea
(Boreal Environment Research)
“Sea ice and its extent are highly susceptible to rising temperature. An increase in winter air temperature by 1°C over the Baltic Sea reduces the ice season's length by 1–2 weeks and the ice-covered area by 2.5% of the basin area. The current climate change has led to a shorter ice season in the Arctic and milder (ice) winters in the Baltic Sea. The ice season duration has decreased by 10–30 days per century in the southern Baltic proper in the period 1896–1993. …”
Underwater 3D laser scanning of wreck of Estonia ferry begins
(Baltic Tim,es)
“The Estonian Safety Investigation Bureau on Monday started 3D laser scanning of the wreck of the ferry Estonia that sank in the Baltic Sea while en route from Tallinn to Stockholm on Sept. 28, 1994. The purpose of the 3D laser scanning is to make a point cloud of the wreck of the ferry Estonia and its immediate surroundings, with the help of which a 3D model of the wreck will be created later.”
https://www.baltictimes.com/underwater_3d_laser_scanning_of_wreck_of_estonia_ferry_starts/
Europe accepts Putin’s demands on gas payments to avoid more shut-offs
(Washington Post)
“European energy companies appear to have bent to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s demand that they purchase natural gas using an elaborate new payment system, a concession that avoids more gas shut-offs and also gives Putin a public relations victory while continuing to fund his war effort in Ukraine.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/05/24/eu-russian-gas-putin-rubles/
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Putin’s War
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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment: 26. May 2022
(ISW)
[ISW produces excellent, detailed, open-source intelligence analysis.]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-26
Putin’s Pivot to a ‘Really Big War’
(The New Yorker)
Interview with Andrei Soldatov, an expert on the Russian intelligence bureaucracy, on how Vladimir Putin’s security state operates.
“(Putin) is actually out of options. He’s quite limited. He got himself in a big war, and right now the military is finally quite convinced that they are fighting a really big war, not just some limited conflict. So what’s he going to do? He needs to vow to keep going in Ukraine. And he understands that he’s fighting a conventional army, not a group of Nazis. And the military thinking is that in this big war, the Russian Army is on the losing end, because the Ukrainian Army is a completely mobilized army that actually claims it can call on hundreds of thousands more in reserves. The Russian Army is still largely a peacetime army.”
https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/putins-pivot-to-a-really-big-war-in-ukraine
“Putin’s Hopes to Exhaust Ukraine with a Long War Almost Certainly for Naught, Eidman Says.” - Paul Goble
“Occupied Ukrainian Territories Switch to Russian Area Code.” - Moscow Times
“Elite Kremlin troops ‘poorly equipped’ for Ukraine war.” - The Times
“Kremlin Won’t Declare Mobilization Because that Wouldn’t Bring Victory but Only Intensify Popular Discontent.” - Paul Goble
“Russia uses Orwellian propaganda news vans in Mariupol.” - The Guardian
“Russians Trust Regime Media Less and Independent Internet More.” - Paul Goble
“Along Ukraine’s northern border with Russia, fears of a new invasion.” - Washington Post
“Stop letting Russia define the terms of the Ukraine crisis.” - The Guardian
“This Is Not Just 'Putin's War' And Russians Should '100 Percent' Feel Guilty.” - Russian Analyst Vladislav Inozemtsev, RFERL
“Putin made ‘big strategic mistake’ in Ukraine, says NATO chief.” - Washington Post
“With power increasingly centralized in the Kremlin, don’t look for Moscow’s empire to fracture anytime soon.” - Foreign Policy
“Vene parlament tühistas sõjaväega liitumise vanusepiiri.” - Postimees
“Putin signs decree to make it easier for residents of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions to get Russian passports.” - The Guardian
“Russia tries to rebound in Ukraine as prospects for victory fade.” - WP
Putin Is Going to Lose His War
(Foreign Affairs)
“The world should prepare for instability in Russia.”
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ukraine/2022-05-25/putin-going-lose-his-war
Russia Forced to Re-activate 50-Year-Old T-62 Tanks For Ukraine War
(The Drive)
“Numerous Cold-War era Russian T-62 tanks have been photographed at Melitopol railway station in southeastern Ukraine near the current front line. … The new development comes after rumors had spread that the Russians were pulling a number of the T-62s out of long-term storage. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Russians have 10,000 tanks and 8,500 armored vehicles in storage - although that number doesn't take into account their material condition - with about 2,500 of those being T-62s as estimated by a Stratfor analysis.”
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russia-deploys-50-year-old-t-62-tanks-to-ukraine-front
The ‘real face of Russia’: the women taking a dangerous stand on St. Petersburg's streets
(The Guardian)
“As the women protest Putin's invasion of Ukraine, reactions are varied from passersbys: some stop to whisper their gratitude, others castigate them as traitors. St Petersburg’s anti-war protesters want to send a message to those ‘who are still silent’.”
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