Russia planning potential sabotage operations in Ukraine
(Washington Post | Financial Times | CNN)
“We have information that indicates Russia has already prepositioned a group of operatives to conduct a false-flag operation in eastern Ukraine,” a U.S. official, who spoke on condition of anonymity under ground rules established by the Biden administration, said in an email. “The operatives are trained in urban warfare and in using explosives to carry out acts of sabotage against Russia’s own proxy-forces.”
—
https://www.ft.com/content/ac431782-62c6-4f3a-a08e-d832fc4ac2a1
—
https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/14/politics/us-intelligence-russia-false-flag/index.html
“Edward Lucas: Venemaa võib Ukrainast lõigata Mariupoli.” - ERR
“В Восточном военном округе началась внезапная проверка боевой готовности войск.” - Kremlin-Friendly TASS
NATO Rejects Russian Security Demands
(RFERL - 12. January)
“NATO had a "serious and direct exchange" with Russian officials on the Ukraine crisis and the alliance is ready to meet Kremlin envoys again to discuss European security, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said. Speaking on January 12 after meeting with a delegation from Russia as part of the NATO-Russia Council, Stoltenberg said the alliance would not agree to Moscow’s demands for a new security architecture in Europe but wanted to continue diplomacy.”
—
“Russian President Vladimir Putin has issued a series of demands for security guarantees in Europe, including NATO not accepting new members like Ukraine and Georgia and limits on allied deployments in Eastern European NATO members.”
—
“Stoltenberg reiterated that Ukraine has a right to decide its future security arrangements and that Russia had no right to veto NATO admitting new members.”
https://www.rferl.org/a/nato-russia-council-talks/31650372.html
“Jens Stoltenberg: NATO will never compromise on core principles for European security.” - Deutsche Welle
“Stoltenberg: NATO ja Venemaa erimeelsusi pole lihtne ületada.” - ERR
“After eight hours of discussions in Geneva, diplomats voice irreconcilable differences.” - Politico Europe
“NATO open to more talks with Russia amid Ukraine tensions.” - DW
“Brüsselis on tunda lääne ühtsust.” - ERR
“U.S. Says NATO Allies Are United.” - RFERL
“Russian and NATO officials say significant differences remain after Wednesday’s talks.” - New York Times
“EKRE MP: Estonia should not assist Ukraine at expense of own defense capability.” - Baltic Times
“Edward Lucas: Talks with Russia need to be on the West's terms.” - ERR
Cyberattack hits Ukraine as U.S. warns Russia could be prepping for war
(Various Sources - 14. January)
“Hackers – widely believed to be from Russia, which has a long history of carrying out cyber attacks against neighbouring states – left a message on the foreign ministry website which said: Ukrainians! … All information about you has become public. Be afraid and expect worse. It’s your past, present and future.”
—
—
https://www.intellinews.com/massive-cyberattack-takes-down-ukrainian-government-websites-231852/
—
https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/14/europe/ukraine-cyber-attack-government-intl/index.html
—
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukraine-russia-hacking-government-websites-1.6314821
Friday 14. January
Juhtkiri: Lääne moraalne võit
(Postimees)
“Lääne-Vene kohtumiste tulemuseks võib olla suhtumise muutus.”
“Selle märgiks on Soome ja Rootsi huvi NATO liikmelisuse vastu.”
“NATO ja EL on tunduvalt ühtsemad kui eelmise aasta lõpus.”
https://arvamus.postimees.ee/7429783/laane-moraalne-voit
“Fear of Russia Brings New Purpose and Unity to NATO, Once Again.” - New York Times, login may be required
 |
| Foto: Urmas Nemvalts | Postimees |
Marina Kaljurand: meiega ei juhtu kunagi nii nagu juhtus Ukrainaga
(Postimees)
“Euroopa parlamendi saadik Marina Kaljurand (SDE) arvab, et pärast viimastel nädalate peetud kohtumisi NATO ja Venemaa vaheliste pingete lõdvendamiseks, on kõik otsad lahti. Ta sõnas, et muidugi on hea kui diplomaadid suhtlevad, aga see ei välista veel sõja puhkemist Ukrainas. «Eks Venemaa delegatsioon sõitis pärast kolmapäevast kohtumist koju, kandis kõik Putinile ette ja küllap Putin siis otsustab, mida ta edasi teeb.”
—
“Euroopa Parlamendi saadik Jaak Madison (EKRE) selgitas, et Venemaa pani ette tingimused, mida ta tahab saavutada, ise teades, et see on saavutamatu. Ta lausus, et kui Venemaa räägib uute NATO liikmete välistamisest, siis ei räägi ta ju ainult Ukrainast vaid ka Soomest ja Rootsist ja kui Venemaa nõuab, et lõpetataks NATO vägede paigutamine meie riiki ja meie naabrusse, siis see jutt viib meid tagasi aastasse 1997. «Kui NATO sellega soostuks, tähendaks see NATO lõppu, aga see oli lihtsalt venelaste poolne provokatsioon,» sõnas ta.”
https://tv.postimees.ee/7429490/marina-kaljurand-meiega-ei-juhtu-kunagi-nii-nagu-juhtus-ukrainaga
“Eesti esindaja OSCE-s hindas neljapäevast kohtumist lootustandvaks.” - ERR
“Lavrov kordas Venemaa julgeolekunõudmisi ja ähvardusi.” - ERR
Kollektiivne Putin ja kollektiivne lääs
(Diplomaatia)
“Kollektiivne Putin – kaeblev, auahne ja vaenulik Venemaa – sündis samal päeval, kui Nõukogude Liit suri. Tänapäeval elatub ta ähvardamisest ja selle viljade lõikamisest. Kodanikuühiskonna hävitamine Venemaal ja Ukraina ähvardamine on ühe medali kaks eri külge. Ukraina sõltumatus ja lääne julgeolek on samuti ühe medali kaks eri külge, kinnitab Venemaa oma viimaste nõudmistega.”
https://diplomaatia.ee/kollektiivne-putin-ja-kollektiivne-laas/
Estonian President Karis: NATO will fight for every square centimeter
(ERR)
"In the past weeks and months NATO has proven its value in this regard, allies have remained strong and united. NATO stands between us and the world in which stronger nations decide the fate of smaller ones behind their backs. This was a world of secret protocols and spheres of influence, robbing scores of European nations of their sovereignty, their very right to exist. Nobody wants it back," he said.”
https://news.err.ee/1608464681/estonian-president-nato-will-fight-for-every-square-centimeter
Poola meedia: relvajõudude varustuse andmebaas lekkis internetti
(ERR)
“Poola relvajõudude varustuse andmebaas, milles on info rohkem kui 1,7 miljoni ühiku kohta pliiatsitest ja riietusest kuni relvastuse ja varuosadeni, lekkis internetti, kirjutas veebiväljaanne onet.pl reedel.”
https://www.err.ee/1608466718/poola-meedia-relvajoudude-varustuse-andmebaas-lekkis-internetti
Opinion: The West must not cave to Russian coercion on Ukraine
(Deutsche Welle)
“The security guarantees demanded by Moscow from NATO are completely unacceptable. Russian President Vladimir Putin is using the draft US-Russian security agreement presented in December to blackmail NATO over the possible accession of Ukraine and Georgia, just as he is trying to blackmail the alliance over stationing troops in Poland and Hungary. NATO cannot let Putin dictate whom it will admit and where it will station its units on NATO territory. …”
https://www.dw.com/en/opinion-the-west-must-not-cave-to-russian-coercion-on-ukraine/a-60427537
Crowded Pond: NATO and Russian Maritime Power in the Baltic Sea
(FPRI Baltic Bulletin)
“No doubt, Russia has sought to capitalize on the strategic location of Kaliningrad Oblast. Along its coast, Russia has deployed at least one Bal mobile coastal defense battery and one K-300P Bastion-P mobile coastal defense battery. Given that the former is normally equipped with 32 Kh-35 (SS-N-25) anti-ship missiles and the latter with eight 3M54 Kalibr (SS-N-27) anti-ship missiles, together they could launch salvos of 40 missiles at NATO forces sailing across the Baltic Sea. Meanwhile, Russia has stationed in Kaliningrad at least two squadrons of Su-24 attack and Su-27 fighter aircraft, collectively capable of launching as many as three or four dozen more anti-ship missiles.”
https://www.fpri.org/article/2021/12/crowded-pond-nato-and-russian-maritime-power-in-the-baltic-sea/
Rootsi tõstis Vene dessantlaevade tõttu sõjalist valmisolekut Gotlandil
(ERR)
“… kuna sel nädalal sisenesid Läänemerele kolm Vene Põhjalaevastiku dessantlaeva.”
“Between Russia, Sweden, and NATO: Finland’s defence of “sovereignty equality”. - ECFR
Opinion: EU Must Stop Moaning on Ukraine and Prepare for a Refugee Crisis
By Toomas Hendrik Ilves, CEPA
“The problem is that seven, going on eight years of “deep” and “grave” concern over the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014; Russia’s destruction of a civilian airliner, killing nearly 300 people on board; and the constant attacks on Ukrainians from their own soil by Russian proxies in the Donbas, the EU has done nothing to justify a place at the top table. It has been reactive — mainly through expressions of concern — and has become something of a joke. As for actually playing a role to end conflict on its own continent that has killed far more than 14,000 people, it has done nothing.”
—
“Ukraine’s security crisis, however, is not — in the infamous words of UK Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain in 1938, "a quarrel in a faraway country, between people of whom we know nothing". Ukraine borders directly on four EU member states — Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Bulgaria – as well as a fifth, Romania via a sea border. True, these are Central or East European members of the EU, but their security concerns are no less urgent. …”
https://cepa.org/eu-should-prepare-for-ukraine-refugee-crisis/
NATO / US warns of ‘real risk of conflict’ as talks with Russia over Ukraine end
(The Guardian)
“The US delegation leader, the deputy secretary of state, Wendy Sherman, said she had heard nothing in Brussels that differed from the Kremlin position laid out at bilateral talks in Geneva, demanding a guaranteed end to Nato expansion and a withdrawal of alliance troops in formerly Soviet bloc countries that joined the alliance after 1997.
Those proposals remained unacceptable to the US and all Nato allies, Sherman said. She also pointed out that there were still more than 100,000 Russian troops deployed close to the Ukrainian border, some of which had carried out exercises with live ammunition in recent days.”
—
“We were basically saying to the Russians: some of the things you put on the table are non-starters for us. We are not going to agree that Nato cannot expand any further. We are not going to agree to go back to 1997,” she told reporters. “Together, the United States and our Nato allies made clear we will not slam the door shut on Nato’s open-door policy, a policy that has always been central to the Nato alliance.” Stoltenberg called the day’s meeting a “defining moment for European security”, but said “significant differences” remained.”
“How Russia’s Military Is Positioned to Threaten Ukraine.” - New York Times
“OSCE chair warns 'risk of war' highest in 30 years.” - Deutsche Welle
“Russia ratchets up pressure on Europe, says ‘no grounds’ for further talks on security amid heightened tensions.” - Washington Post
Estonian Politics: Coalition coming apart at the seams
(ERR)
“… opposition party Isamaa's leader Helir-Valdor Seeder said Friday. Seeder said that parliament should as a result look at options for a new alignment, amid soaring energy prices and attempt to mitigate their worst effects.”
https://news.err.ee/1608466415/isamaa-leader-coalition-coming-apart-at-the-seams
 |
| Deutsche Welle - January 2022 |
Thursday 13. January
NATO’s Jens Stoltenberg: There will be no armed attack against Estonia
By Sten Hankewitz, Estonian World
“… just because together we represent 50% of the world’s military might. And our unity is our greatest strength and standing together is the best way to deter any aggression against any NATO ally, including Estonia,” he added.”
https://estonianworld.com/security/nato-head-there-will-be-no-armed-attack-against-estonia/
Baltic Citizens Worry They’re Next on Russia’s Menu
(Foreign Policy)
“It has been a turbulent few months in the Baltics. … The migrant crisis sparked by the Russian-backed dictator Aleksandr Lukashenko on the Belarusian borders (especially with Poland but with Lithuania and Latvia, too), the potential of escalation of conflict in Ukraine, and even the chaos and brutal crackdown happening in Kazakhstan right now serve as a grim reminder that “business as usual” just isn’t a valid survival strategy for the Baltic states at this point. Focusing on collective security in the region, taking threats seriously, and taking care of military budgets are necessities.”
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/11/baltics-russia-aggression-collective-security-ukraine/
“Vseviov: liitlassuhted annavad Eestile julgeolekukindluse.” - ERR
“Venemaa survestab Läänt oma nõudmistele vastama.” - ERR
Estonian president calls for more NATO troops to defend against Russia threat
(Politico-Europe)
“… following talks with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg on Thursday, President Alar Karis said that Vladimir Putin’s deployment of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border is a cause for concern and that NATO should waste no time in upping its defenses.”
—
“We want more NATO troops in Estonia,” Karis said, adding that he welcomed a recent decision by Denmark to increase its military presence in Lithuania, with fighters being deployed this month under the NATO banner. “We need a strong presence to make sure we are not going to be attacked,” he said, “only for defense purposes.”
—
When pressed on the likelihood of Moscow invading Estonia, Karis struck a cautious tone. “You never know. If you look back at history there are surprises,” he said. “Every time a situation like this emerges — like now in Ukraine — questions like this come up.”
—
“NATO defense ministers are set to review tensions with Russia in a meeting planned for mid-February.”
NATO Secretary General with the President of Estonia: Press conference transcript and video
(NATO)
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_190740.htm
(NATO Video)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cVyzIakRrUs
Baltics in talks to increase NATO troops on their soil
(Swiss Broadcasting)
“Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, once ruled from Moscow, have been members of both NATO and the European Union since 2004, and have long sought more NATO involvement.”
—
"Of course, we are discussing with our allies to increase their presence here to act as a deterrent," Estonian premier Kaja Kallas told Reuters in a video interview from Tallinn, without giving any details. "If you look at the map, the Baltic states are a NATO peninsula and therefore we have our worries".
EKRE on võtnud oma eesmärgiks Eesti kaitsetahte lõhkumise
(Postimees Arvamus)
“EKRE on võtnud oma eesmärgiks laiema Eesti kaitsetahte lõhkumise. Muudmoodi ei ole võimalik ratsionaalselt seletada, miks kutsutakse meie kõige olulisema liitlase presidenti «närakaks», mõnitatakse Soome peaministrit, töötatakse vastu välisoperatsioonidesse panustamisele ning liitlaste abistamisele. Kutsudes mereväge «pähklikoorteks, mis seisavad kai ääres», ei kohku Mart Helme tagasi ka igapäevaselt teenistuses olevate kaitseväelaste pühendumuse alavääristamise ees. See on riigikogu liikme poolt absoluutselt lubamatu tegevus.”
“Kuidas seletada lastele tänast julgeolekuolukorda?” - Postimees
Vene erukindrali hinnangul jäi Venemaa ja NATO kohtumine tulemusteta
(Postimees)
“Venemaa ja NATO kohtumine Brüsselis jäi ootuspäraselt tulemusteta ja kumbki pool oma seisukohtade juurde, ütles kolmapäeval Vene kaitseministeeriumi rahvusvaheliste lepingute osakonna kunagine juhataja ja erukindralleitnant Jevgeni Bužinski.”
“NATO peasekretär pärast kõnelusi Venemaaga: “Venemaa on agressor, mitte Ukraina”. - Postimees
“NATO 1. alalise miinitõrjegrupi ülemaks sai Eesti mereväe ohvitser.” - ERR
Lithuanian citizens accuse Mikhail Gorbachev of 1991 war crimes
(Euronews)
“Their lawsuit relates to deadly clashes in Vilnius in January 1991 after the Baltic country declared its independence. During the attack, 14 unarmed civilians were killed and more than 700 people were injured. Ahead of the 31st anniversary of the clashes, relatives of the victims have renewed their calls for justice. The families have accused Gorbachev of controlling the Soviet army and failing to prevent an "international crime”.”
Putin’s Military Options
(ISW)
“Putin will very likely deploy Russian troops into Belarus this winter. He has set all the necessary informational and military conditions to do so and is likely simply waiting for what he judges to be the right moment. Such a move could dramatically increase the challenge NATO faces defending the Baltic States from future Russian attack because it would put Russian mechanized units on both sides of the narrow Suwalki Corridor through which NATO supplies and reinforcements to the Baltic States must run. It would also set conditions for future threats to invade Ukraine along an axis that would enable Russian troops to envelop Kyiv from the west. And it would put additional Russian troops on the Polish border, increasing the threat to NATO’s eastern flank.”
—
“Putin and Russian officials are actively setting informational conditions to move Russian troops overtly into occupied Donbas. Russian forces are already covertly there, to be sure. An overt deployment would let Putin bring in much more combat power that would pose a more immediate and serious threat to unoccupied Ukraine. Military conditions are likely already set both in occupied Donbas and among the troops that would deploy there. …”
https://www.understandingwar.org/report/putins-likely-courses-action-ukraine-part-2
Full Report:
Marju Lauristin: It saddens me that EKRE has given the elite a bad name
(ERR)
“Lauristin described as worrying the trend where intellectuals are criticized for becoming alienated from the people in a situation where political parties have privatized the country.”
https://news.err.ee/1608463742/lauristin-it-saddens-me-that-ekre-has-given-the-elite-a-bad-name
Russia Talks Show No Sign of a Quick Resolution on Ukraine Crisis
(Foreign Policy)
“U.S. and allies bat down Russian proposals to halt NATO expansion.”
Summer 2021 – the hottest in Europe’s history of meteorological observations
(BNN)
“It is mentioned that the concentration of green house gas in 2021 continued growing, which is backed by provisional analysis of satellite measurements. New records of carbon dioxide and methane concentrations were observed as well.”
Putin is Threatening a War. Are Russians Willing to Fight It?
(Politico)
“Russians largely believe Putin is right about Ukraine and NATO. But it’s not clear whether they are willing to go to war. … “What normal person wants a war?” Kristina Kostova, 38, a mother of two, responded when asked about her thoughts on Ukraine. “We love Ukrainians. As for our political differences, maybe they will affect us, but we don’t want any part in this conflict,” she said. “There won’t be a war,” her husband, Mikhail, added, and then struck a typically Russian note of fatalism: “And if there is, then it’s out of our hands anyway.”
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/01/12/russia-ukraine-putin-war-526967
Wednesday 12. January
Opinion: Why threatening Putin with sanctions over Ukraine won’t be enough
By George Will, Washington Post
“At a nearly four-hour news conference last month, Putin seemed to object even to missile-interceptor systems, which are definitionally defensive, in Poland and Romania, both NATO members. His multiplying demands amount to control of Ukraine’s foreign policy. And the neutering of NATO: He demands an end to NATO “military activity” in Eastern Europe, including in member states such as Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.”
—
“The E.U. should help hasten Ukraine’s compliance with criteria for membership, and NATO should move significant military assets closer to Ukraine. The United States and NATO, says Secretary of State Antony Blinken, have an “unwavering commitment … to Ukraine’s territorial integrity.” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg says that although Ukraine is not a member, it “is a partner, a highly valued partner.” Prove it.”
Pro-Russia Agent Accused of Wreaking Havoc in Ukraine’s port city of Odessa
By Anna Nemtsova, The Daily Beast
“According to security officials who spoke with The Daily Beast, the agent was part of a Russian intelligence-affiliated group which identifies itself as “The Free City of Odessa.” The group is reportedly based in Odessa’s neighboring territory of Transnistria, a breakaway state where hundreds of Russian troops are stationed. The Free City of Odessa had recently published a video of camouflaged and masked guerrilla fighters firing guns at a photo of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. In the video, the members called for locals to “wake up and free NATO-occupied and Washington-controlled” Ukraine.”
—
“Odessa, which was founded by Russian Empress Catherine the Great in 1794, has been a vital strategic point for Russia over the years. On Monday, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov warned NATO against flying planes over Odessa’s port, which is less than 300 miles away from Crimea, demanding the alliance meet Russia’s demands. “If this doesn’t happen… we very much don’t want to have a situation where NATO countries, led by the U.S., make that kind of mistake and once again act to undermine their own security and the security of the whole European continent,” Ryabkov said at the press conference in Geneva.”
Voters in Finland set to decide on the biggest healthcare reform in decades
(Euronews)
“The reforms are a flagship policy for prime minister Sanna Marin’s Social Democrat-lead coalition, and usher in sweeping and difficult changes that have eluded previous governments …”
The Great Siberian Thaw
(The New Yorker)
“Russia’s permafrost contains microbes, mammoths, and twice as much carbon as Earth’s atmosphere. What happens when it starts to melt?”
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/01/17/the-great-siberian-thaw
Tuesday 11. January
Luik: Putin peab lähiajal otsustama, mis teed Venemaa läheb
(ERR)
“Eesti suursaadik NATO-s Jüri Luik ütles kolmapäeval pärast NATO-Vene nõukogu kohtumist, et juba lähiajal peab Venemaa president Vladimir Putin otsustama, kas läheb välja sõjalisele konfliktile või jätkab diplomaatilist arutelu.”
https://www.err.ee/1608463898/luik-putin-peab-lahiajal-otsustama-mis-teed-venemaa-laheb
“Estonia's NATO ambassador: Nothing extraordinary will be decided this week.” - ERR
Will Poland’s Border Emergency Become Permanent?
(Foreign Policy)
“Even though the number of crossing attempts has diminished over the last few weeks, Polish authorities will maintain the current security restrictions through at least March and have formally commissioned the construction of a permanent barrier along the border with Belarus.”
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/11/poland-belarus-border-migration-lukashenko-emergency-permanent/
Belarus trade with Baltics actually increased
(RFERL)
“While Lithuania is one of the harshest critics of hard-line leader Alyaksandr Lukashenka, the small Baltic state continues to cash in on trade with Belarus -- along with other EU nations and companies, despite several rounds of Western sanctions.
Lithuanian companies continue to ship Belarusian potash products, a key ingredient in fertilizer, through its rail network and port of Klaipeda to markets in the EU and elsewhere, despite the Belarusian state-run potash giant, Belaruskali, being sanctioned. The continuing trade with the Lukashenka regime has sparked a scandal in Lithuania, with even calls for the government to step down.”
https://www.rferl.org/a/belarus-sanctions-eu-trade-booming/31647286.html
Swedish Foreign Minister: Joining NATO Is Up to Us
(Foreign Policy)
“Sweden’s top diplomat underscored that Moscow has no right to dictate which countries can apply to join the trans-Atlantic military alliance.”
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/07/swedish-foreign-minister-ann-linde-nato-finland-russia/
“Soomel ja Rootsil ei ole kiirteed NATO-sse.” - Diplomaatia
Punitive Psychiatry Spreading in Russia
(Window on Eurasia)
“Soviet-style punitive psychiatry in which people engaged in political dissidence are confined in psychiatric hospitals against their will is spreading across Russia less because of a specific order from above but as a result of the power of bad examples, Aleksey Pryanishnikov says. … officials in various regions see how easy it is to use psychiatric confinement against their opponents when officials in another region do so and they move to copy it.”
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2022/01/punitive-psychiatry-spreading-in-russia.html
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