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27 January, 2023





UK's Princess Anne visits Estonia  

(ERR)

“The UK's Princess Royal, Princess Anne, daughter of the late Queen Elizabeth II, met President Alar Karis on Tuesday during a working visit to Estonia.”

https://news.err.ee/1608862193/gallery-uk-s-princess-anne-visits-estonia





Princess Anne and Sir Tim Laurence visit UK troops in Estonia involved in NATO exercises

(Various sources)

“The Princess Royal and her husband, Vice Admiral Sir Timothy Laurence, visited The King’s Royal Hussars at TAPA Military Base in Estonia. The King’s Royal Hussars (KRH) is a Royal Armoured Corps regiment of the British Army to which the Princess has been Colonel-in-Chief since they formed in 1992. The regiment is part of Operation CABRIT, the codename for the UK’s deployment and its contribution to NATO’s enhanced Forward Presence.”

https://royalcentral.co.uk/uk/anne/princess-anne-visit-troops-in-estonia-involved-in-nato-exercises-186048/

https://www.goodhousekeeping.com/uk/lifestyle/a42684560/princess-anne-military-visit-estonia/

https://www.forces.net/royals/princess-anne-takes-tour-inside-challenger-2-battle-tank





Defence readiness exercise Okas (Quill)

(Eesti Valitsus | ERR)

“830 members of territorial defence units are expected to participate in the snap exercise. … 658 reservists from territorial defence units of the Pärnumaa, Saaremaa and Lääne districts, Territorial Defence Region West, Estonian Defence League, are ordered to participate in the exercise. In addition, 172 members of the Defence League are invited to the exercise by the commanders of districts.”

“There is no immediate security threat to Estonia.”

https://valitsus.ee/en/news/government-estonia-approved-defence-readiness-exercise-okas-territorial-defence-units

https://news.err.ee/1608863792/estonian-government-calls-okas-snap-exercise





“It is extremely important that President Putin does not win this war.” 

- NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg



____________


Thank you for all the kind emails and FB messages that came my way last week. I’m off of that powerful muscle relaxant and I was able to concentrate on this weeks’ newsletter. The messages were very much appreciated! - Aavo



EstoNews Blog:  https://estonewsoftheweek.blogspot.com/


EstoNews Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/EstoNews/


____________









Friday 27. January 2023



Putin plans new Ukraine push despite his losses. He is preparing for years of war

(Bloomberg)

“The Kremlin aims to demonstrate that its forces can regain the initiative after months of losing ground, putting pressure on Kyiv and its backers to agree to some kind of truce that leaves Russia in control of the territory it now occupies, according to officials, advisers and others familiar with the situation.”

"Even Putin can’t deny the weaknesses of the military that he’s spent decades building up after his troops lost more than half their initial gains in Ukraine, the people said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss matters that aren’t public. The persistent setbacks have led many in the Kremlin to be more realistic about their immediate ambitions, recognizing that even holding the current front line would be an achievement.”

“Putin is disappointed at how things are going but he isn’t ready to abandon his goals,” said Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of R.Politik, a political consultancy. “It just means that the route will be longer, more bloody and worse for everyone.” US and European intelligence officials question whether Russia has the resources for a major new offensive, even after mobilizing 300,000 additional troops last fall.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-27/russian-president-putin-plans-new-offensive-in-ukraine-as-he-girds-for-long-war





Bloomberg: Venemaa valmistub suurpealetungiks veebruaris või märtsis

(ERR | Delfi)

“Kremli allikate kinnitusel võib Venemaa püüda järgmist suuremat pealetungi Ukraina vastu veebruaris või märtsis, mis tähendab, et pealetungikatse proovitakse teha enne lääneriikide lubatud tankide Ukrainasse saabumist. USA ja Euroopa sõjaliste allikate sõnul võib praegune sõda kesta aastaid.”

https://www.err.ee/1608866237/bloomberg-venemaa-valmistub-suurpealetungiks-veebruaris-voi-martsis

https://www.delfi.ee/artikkel/120134826/kremli-allikad-venemaa-alustab-veebruaris-voi-martsis-suurpealetungi-et-soda-ukrainas-voita



“Venemaa võib täppismoonarünnakuid korraldada veel üle poole aasta.” - ERR





International media interest in Estonia has not waned

(ERR)

“Estonia's loud international voice is an increasingly important part of security. This is how Estonia convinces its allies to further support Ukraine as well as increase their presence here. For foreign countries to be interested in Estonia, however, it needs robust steps and messages — not tepid talking points, Media Adviser to the Government Helen Rits told ERR.”

"On a typical, quieter day, there are three or four inquiries," Rits said. "If the prime minister specifically has said something more important, or Estonia has done something more important, then 20-30 inquiries is indeed perfectly normal."

https://news.err.ee/1608865628/officials-major-foreign-interest-in-estonia-hasn-t-waned



“Välismaa suur huvi Eesti vastu vaibunud ei ole.” - ERR





Estonia ferry was not seaworthy - new probe reveals

(Estonian World | Yle | Reuters)

“It is the first time investigators have suggested the vessel was actually not seaworthy when it set off from Tallinn that stormy evening in late Sept. 1994.”

https://estonianworld.com/life/an-intermediate-report-the-ferry-estonia-was-not-seaworthy/

https://yle.fi/a/74-20014245

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/new-probe-into-estonia-ferry-sinking-reveals-construction-flaws-officials-2023-01-23/





The training area at Nursipalu, Võrumaa, will be roughly tripled in size

(ERR)

“The planned Nursipalu enlargement, which would see an existing training area triple in size to around 9,000 ha, is being done with the EDF and Estonia's defense in mind, rather than specifically for NATO allies.”

https://news.err.ee/1608866162/government-to-discuss-moving-forward-with-nursipalu-enlargement-next-week



“Valitsus arutab Nursipalu laiendamist uuel nädalal.” - ERR


“RMK peatab Nursipalu aladel lageraied.” - ERR





Venemaa andis Läti suursaadikule kaks nädalat riigist lahkumiseks

(Postimees)

“… ning süüdistas seda Balti riiki ‘täielikus russofoobias’.”

https://maailm.postimees.ee/7700555/venemaa-andis-lati-suursaadikule-kaks-nadalat-riigist-lahkumiseks





Niinistö: "Serious discussion" with Turkey’s Erdoğan lies ahead

(Yle)

“Finnish President Sauli Niinistö said that he has kept his counsel on the issue so as "not to give the impression that we are begging for something”. He also noted that Turkey's ratification of Finland's membership application is unlikely to happen until after the Turkish parliamentary and presidential elections, scheduled for 14 May. "It is beginning to look very much as if the Turkish presidential elections will take precedence and not much will happen before then," Niinistö said.”

https://yle.fi/a/74-20015023



“Sweden's "worst nightmare" — being left outside the Nato military alliance — could also be bad news for Finland.” - Yle 


“We believe they are ready: US on Sweden, Finland candidacy for NATO.” - Helsinki Times





European Commission opens 5 infringement procedures against Estonia

(ERR)

“… awaiting action on improving air quality, protecting Natura 200 sites, preventing the dissemination of terrorist online content and sexual abuse of children, and restricting hate speech.”

https://news.err.ee/1608864740/european-commission-opens-5-infringement-procedures-against-estonia





Estonia Requests German permission to export cluster munitions (!) to Ukraine

(ERR | Yahoo News)

“Over 100 countries have signed the convention that prohibits the use of this kind of artillery shells, but neither Estonia nor Ukraine were among them. Berlin would have to give a go-ahead because the cluster shells Estonian armed forces have at their disposal were procured from Germany, which has since ceased their production. “We'll have to see what agreements between our forces we reach with Ukraine,” Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur said.”

https://news.err.ee/1608864767/estonia-weighing-giving-ukraine-cluster-munitions

https://news.yahoo.com/estonia-requests-german-permission-export-023200152.html





Volunteers fear for migrants’ lives at Lithuanian border

(LRT)

“Some have been missing for months.”

https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/1876549/some-have-been-missing-for-months-volunteers-fear-for-migrants-lives-at-lithuanian-border





Tanks, timing and training: Ukraine’s new battlefield challenges

(Politico Europe)

“Western battle tanks could be a game changer, but only if there is proper training and if they arrive soon.”

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-russia-war-volodymyr-zelenskyy-vladimir-putin-germany-us-tanks-timing-and-training-ukraines-new-battlefield-challenges/







Thursday 26. January



‘The Tallinn Pledge’ For Ukraine

(Reuters | ERR | Coffee or Die)

“On Jan. 19, representatives from nine NATO countries — not including the US — gathered at Tapa army base in Estonia and pledged “the delivery of an unprecedented set of donations including main battle tanks, heavy artillery, air defense, ammunition, and infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine’s defense.”

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/european-states-estonia-pledge-weapons-ukraine-2023-01-19/

https://www.coffeeordie.com/tallinn-pledge-nato

https://news.err.ee/1608856520/estonia-uk-nine-other-countries-meet-pledge-more-military-aid-to-ukraine



“Fmr. Estonian President on Estonia’s 'more aid faster' approach to Ukraine.” - MSNBC


“Joint Statement – The Tallinn Pledge.” - UK Gov. - updated 23. Jan





Mighty Baltics Lead the NATO Pack

By Marija Golubeva and Francis Harris

(CEPA)

“It is too rarely mentioned that some European alliance members are giving the greatest amount of aid.”

https://cepa.org/article/mighty-baltics-lead-the-nato-pack-with-aid-to-ukraine/





Erdogan says Sweden should not expect support for NATO bid after Quran burning

(Radio Sweden)

“Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has condemned the burning of a Quran during a protest outside the Turkish embassy in Stockholm.”

https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/erdogan-says-sweden-should-not-expect-support-for-nato-bid-after-quran-burning



“Türgi katkestas kolmepoolsed kõnelused Soome ja Rootsi NATO-liikmesuse üle.” - ERR


“Hundreds Protest In Afghan City Against Koran Burning In Sweden.” - RFERL


“Turkey Says It's 'Meaningless' To Restore NATO Dialogue With Sweden, Finland.” - RFERL


“Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson urged everyone in Sweden to realize how serious the current security situation is.” - Radio Sweden


“Swedish society does not see Turkey's objections to its membership in NATO as an insurmountable obstacle.” - The Baltic Times


“Claim: Russian military intelligence operation in Sweden blocking NATO membership bid.” - Lansing Institute





Finland calls for a 'time-out' in heated NATO talks with Turkey

(BBC)

“A series of controversial protests in Sweden, including the burning of a Quran, have angered Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in recent days. As Turkey is already a member of Nato, it can block applications to join. Mr Haavisto said that the demonstrations had put a "brake on the progress" on negotiations.”

“Turkey said the Swedish government's decision not to prevent Rasmus Paludan, a politician from the Danish far-right Stram Kurs (Hard Line) party, from burning a copy of Islam's holy book in public was "completely unacceptable”. Talks between the countries have stalled over a number of issues - including Turkey's demands that the Nordic nations deport those it views as terrorists - and look to be on hold until after Turkish elections in mid-May.”

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64261617



“With Sweden’s bid stalled, Finland may decide to go alone.” - Foreign Policy


“Podcast: Will Finland join Nato without Sweden?” - Yle


“Sweden-Turkey Spat Means Finland Might Take Unilateral Route.” - Spiegel


“Karis reiterates country's support for Finland NATO accession.” - ERR


“Turkey cancels Finland, Sweden meeting after Stockholm protest.” - Yle


“Anti-Turkey protesters toying with Finland and Sweden's security.” - Yle


“Finnish President Niinistö visits Ukraine.” - Helsinki Times


“Interview: Prime Minister Sanna Marin.” - MSN/CNN


“Turkish anger at Sweden over Qur'an burning complicates Finland's NATO bid.” - CBC





Denmark: An important part of ensuring defense in Baltic Sea area

(Baltic Times)

“… Estonian Minister of Defense Hanno Pevkur said at a meeting with his Danish counterpart Jakob Ellemann-Jensen. … Denmark has also decided to send a significant part of its artillery capability to Ukraine, a total of 19 CAESAR self-propelled howitzers.”

https://www.baltictimes.com/estonian_defmin__denmark_important_part_of_ensuring_defense_in_baltic_sea_area/



“Tapale tankid toonud Taanil ei jagu neid Ukrainale annetamiseks.” - Postimees


“Denmark calls for mandatory military service for women.” - The Straits Times





Ameerikas sündinud ja kasvanud Karl räägib puhtalt eesti keelt ja juhib Chicago Eesti kooli

(Eesti Päevaleht - video)

“Konstantin Pätsi adjutandi lapselaps on Chicagos asuva Eesti kooli direktor. Noormehe laitmatu eesti keele järgi ei oskaks arvatagi, et ta pole päevagi Eestis elanud.”

https://epl.delfi.ee/artikkel/120132794/eestlased-usas-ameerikas-sundinud-ja-kasvanud-karl-raagib-puhtalt-eesti-keelt-ja-juhib-eesti-kooli





Time Is on Ukraine’s Side, Not Russia’s

By Phillips Payson O’Brien

(The Atlantic, 14. Jan)

“Many NATO leaders now believe not only that Ukraine can outlast the Russian invaders but also that it must. Anything but a complete Ukrainian victory will offer some validation for depraved Russian fighting tactics. It would encourage Putin to test the resolve of other nations that share borders with Russia or were once under Soviet domination. In recent days Norway, Finland, the Baltic states, Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia have all promised continued support for Ukraine. These donors do not believe that NATO membership alone will protect them from Russian military interference; their security now hinges on Putin’s Russia being vanquished.”

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/01/russia-ukraine-weapon-production-nato-supply/672719/





Saksamaa saadab Ukrainale 14 tanki

(ERR)

“Berliin lubas ka teistel riikidel varustada Ukrainat Leopard 2 tankidega.”

https://www.err.ee/1608862136/saksamaa-saadab-ukrainale-14-leopard-2-tanki



“Kaitseekspertide hinnangul on Ukrainal plaan erinevate tankide kasutamiseks.” - ERR


“USA saadab Ukrainale 31 Abramsi tanki.” - ERR





The West finally commits tanks to Ukraine. It took a lot of arm-twisting

(Yahoo News)

“The story of how the U.S. and its allies coaxed, finessed and convinced the Germans to release the Leopards.”

https://news.yahoo.com/us-germany-tanks-ukraine-russia-abrams-leopards-015218778.html



“Germany’s Ukraine tank decision.” - BBC


“Why the US flipped on sending tanks to Ukraine.” - AP


“Ukraine faces logistics hurdles ahead of tank deliveries.” - Washington Post


“European allies will send about 80 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.” - Politico


“Finland to take part in international effort to deliver tanks to Ukraine.” - Helsinki Times





This Is What M1 Abrams Tanks Will Bring To The Fight In Ukraine

(The Drive | Washington Post)

“The Abrams has encountered Russian-supplied tanks going back to Operation Desert Storm in 1991.”

“The battles such as 73 Easting, Battle of Medina Ridge, Battle of Norfolk, and Battle of Kuwait International Airport gives you a good example of what the Abrams is capable of doing to Russian tanks, up to at least back then the T-72, which is currently used in Ukraine, along with the older T-64.”

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/this-is-what-m1-abrams-tanks-will-bring-to-the-fight-in-ukraine

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/01/25/m1-abrams-tanks-ukraine/



“Russian Soldiers Ask: 'We Have Nothing To Fight With. Why Should We Go Up Against Tanks With Only Machine Guns?” - RFERL


“Russia plays down West’s move on tanks.” - AP


“Putin Lackeys Lose Their Minds Over Ukraine Getting Battle Tanks.” - Daily Beast


“'Toothless' Leopards and 'battered' Abrams: Russian TV mocks Nato tanks promised to Ukraine.” - The Guardian


“US Abrams tanks need separate supply chain on Ukraine's frontline.” - Forces Net





"Esimene stuudio": Helme ja Kallas vaidlesid julgeoleku üle

(ERR)

“Reformierakonna juht Kaja Kallas ja Eesti Konservatiivse Rahvaerakonna (EKRE) esimees Martin Helme vaidlesid neljapäeva õhtul ETV saates "Esimene stuudio" julgeolekuteemadel.”

https://www.err.ee/1608865025/esimene-stuudio-helme-ja-kallas-vaidlesid-julgeoleku-ule








Wednesday 25. January



Estonia Sending All Of Its 155-mm Howitzers to Ukraine

(The Defense Post)

“The package, previously reported to be worth 113 million euros ($122 million), is expected to boost Kyiv’s defense capabilities amid continuing Russian aggression.”

“Estonia currently operates 24 NATO standard FH-70 towed howitzers. Apart from the howitzers, Tallinn will send thousands of 155-mm artillery shells and hundreds of Karl-Gustaf anti-tank grenade launchers.”

“Estonia’s defense minister Hanno Pevkur assured its people that the decision to send its 24 FH-70s to Ukraine would not affect the country’s national defense because Tallinn is transitioning to K9 self-propelled howitzers produced by South Korea.”

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/01/24/estonia-sending-howitzers-ukraine/



“Estonia buys 12 more howitzers amid ‘lessons from Ukraine’.” - Defense News


“USS Roosevelt arrives in Tallinn, Estonia.” - U.S. Navy press release


“The UK deploys Chinook helicopters to Estonia.” - Estonian World


“Estonian military support to Ukraine to increase to more than 1% GDP.” - ERR





Russia, Estonia expel ambassadors amid ‘destroyed’ relations

(AP | ERR | Reuters | AlJazeera | Deutsche Welle)

“Russia and Estonia on Monday were expelling the ambassadors from each other’s countries in a tit-for-tat move, saying that their diplomatic missions will be headed by charges d’affaires as relations between the countries sank to a new low over Ukraine. … The Russian Foreign Ministry summoned Estonian Ambassador Margus Laidre and ordered him to leave the country by Feb. 7.”

“The statement issued by the ministry said that Estonia’s diplomatic representation from now on will be downgraded to a charge d’affaires that heads the European Union country’s mission in Moscow. The ministry said that the move was made in retaliation for Estonia’s “new unfriendly step to radically reduce the size of the Russian Embassy in Tallinn.”

https://apnews.com/article/estonia-tallinn-business-67182f99b4eaae30d1fd41d12da8fa48

https://news.err.ee/1608859871/russia-to-expel-estonian-ambassador

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-downgrades-relations-with-nato-member-estonia-expels-envoy-2023-01-23/

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/23/moscow-expels-estonian-envoy-downgrades-ties

https://www.dw.com/en/russia-estonia-expel-ambassadors-amid-destroyed-relations/a-64488424





Levada küsitluse kohaselt peavad venelased Balti riike Venemaale ohtlikeks

(ERR)

“Venemaa elanikud hindavad oma riigi suhteid Eesti ning Läti ja Leeduga keskmisest negatiivsemaks ja peavad neid Venemaa suhtes vaenulikeks ja ohtlikeks maadeks. Eesti suhtes on venelaste hoiakud siiski pisut positiivsemad kui Läti ja Leedu suhtes, selgub Moskvas tegutseva Levada keskuse korraldatud arvamusuuringust, mille tellis Eesti välisministeerium.”

https://www.err.ee/1608862592/levada-kusitluse-kohaselt-peavad-venelased-balti-riike-venemaale-ohtlikeks





Survey claims that Russians see the Baltic states as a threat

(BNN | LRT)

“A survey commissioned by the Foreign Ministry of Estonia and conducted by the independent organization Levada Center shows that Russian citizens consider Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia to be hostile countries.”

“Respondents to the survey were asked about Russia’s relations with its western neighbors, Belarus received the most positive rating, while Finland and Sweden remained roughly in the middle of the rating scale. Regarding Estonia, in different age groups and also depending on the place of residence, the opinion was a little different, but in any case, it was more inclined to a negative assessment.”
https://bnn-news.com/survey-russians-see-the-baltic-states-as-a-threat-242369

https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/1874870/russians-consider-baltics-a-threat-survey



“Rising diplomatic tensions as Baltic states clash with Moscow over Ukraine.” - MSN


“Estonia and Latvia remove Russian ambassadors as tensions rise.” - Politico Europe


“Russia and Russians – a diplomat’s insights.” - Eesti Elu, subscription





Lithuania-Belarus border: 

'There are bodies in the forest’

(Euronews)

“Sienos Grupe, a Lithuanian humanitarian organisation, has collected a list of around 30 people, whose families lost contact with them on Europe’s eastern frontier. … Known as Europe’s forgotten migration crisis, Lithuania, Poland and Belarus have pushed migrants back and forth across each other’s frontiers since 2020, in a situation likened to ping-pong. Vilnius and Brussels accuse Minsk of weaponising migration -– inundating the EU’s border with migrants as a form of hybrid warfare – while Lithuanian border guards have been repeatedly accused of violently pushing migrants back into Belarus.”

“In the meantime, people suffer.”

https://www.euronews.com/2023/01/25/there-are-bodies-in-the-forest-missing-migrants-worry-activists-on-lithuania-belarus-borde





Estonia declares 2023 the Year of the Sauna

By Sten Hankewitz

(Estonian World)

“… there will be events throughout the year, organised by the Estonian Rural Tourism Organisation, to celebrate the country’s rich sauna culture; the European Sauna Marathon is back following a two-year pandemic break.”

https://estonianworld.com/life/estonia-declares-2023-the-year-of-the-sauna-the-sauna-marathon-is-back/





Eesti kuulutas 2023. aasta sauna-aastaks

(Järva Teataja, 2. jaanuar)

“Maalehe päringul ning Ehitusregistri andmetel on Eestis ~100,100 sauna. Seega keskmiselt on Eestimaal ühe sauna kohta 13,3 elanikku. Kõige enam on saunasid Harjumaal, kokku 47,700, järgnevad Tartumaa 16,000 ja Pärnumaa 8,600 saunaga. Saun on olnud eestlaste põhiõigus.”

https://jarvateataja.postimees.ee/7682099/2023-on-eestis-sauna-aasta



“Sauna-aasta 2023.” - Eesti Maaturismi Ühing


“Estonia boosts Ukrainian soldiers’ morale with mobile sauna.” - The Mayor


“European Sauna Marathon returns to Estonia after two-year break.” - ERR





Movie Review: ’Smoke Sauna Sisterhood’

(Screen Daily)

“Director: Anna Hints. Estonia. 2022. 89 minutes.”

“Set amidst changing seasons of sunny summers and icy winters, the film explores a phenomenon steeped in ritual and tradition. Leaves are gathered and softened to create the brooms that are used to whack bodies, stimulate blood flow and remove toxins. Salt is rubbed into the flesh. The women break into song and incantation seeking to “sweat out all the pain, sweat out all the fear”. The cabin is sometimes used to smoke meats that are then consumed at their communal gatherings.”

“Director Anna Hints has clearly developed a a strong bond of trust with the women. Few names are mentioned, some faces are never seen, but there is no sense of an outsider looking in, instead a feeling of someone in harmony with her subject. …”

https://www.screendaily.com/reviews/smoke-sauna-sisterhood-sundance-review/5177764.article



“Movie Review: Intimate Estonian Documentary ‘Smoke Sauna Sisterhood’.” - Paste Magazine


“Interview: Anna Hints, Director of ‘Smoke Sauna Sisterhood’.” - Cineuropa








- Putin’s War -



Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment - 26. Jan.

(ISW)

“Russian forces launched another massive series of missile and drone strikes across Ukraine on January 26.”

“A recent altercation between Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and former Russian officer Igor Girkin is exposing a new domain for competition among Russian nationalist groups for political influence in Russia.”

“Putin continued his campaign against critical and opposition voices by cracking down on several major opposition media outlets.”

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-26-2023





The Political Considerations Behind Russia’s Military Command Chaos

(Jamestown Org.)

“All these turbulent appointments demonstrate that the Kremlin embodies a lack of trust in its own military generals and, tries to delegate responsibility for disastrous decisions in Ukraine directly to them. Meanwhile, this command chaos also demonstrates how the last generation of Soviet officers appeared to be unprepared for modern conventional warfare. Being mostly young lieutenants and captains, these officials decided to stay in military service during the 1990s and suffered from the lack of training, temporary absence of salaries, low standards of living and fought in the bloody Chechen wars, as their colleagues started new careers. Their education is mostly limited to experience during the war in Afghanistan and their own professional development. And besides the five-day war against Georgia in 2008, their tactical expertise is limited to the asymmetric campaigns in Chechnya, Ukraine (2014–2015) and Syria. Thus, their ability to “survive” more than two decades of President Vladimir Putin’s governance means they prioritize total personal political loyalty, indoctrination and even resentment toward Soviet practices, rather than developing real professional competences. Even so, the Kremlin continues to doubt the political loyalty of its military generals.”

https://jamestown.org/program/the-political-considerations-behind-russias-military-command-chaos/





Is there hope for Russia after Putin?

By Mark Galeotti

(Engelsberg Ideas)

“Quite how and when Vladimir Putin will lose power is unclear, but the inevitable event will offer Russia another opportunity to break with its Soviet past.”

“It is perhaps a mark of Vladimir Putin’s apparent endurance — after 22 years directly and indirectly ruling Russia — that there is such an appetite for claims of his imminent departure. He has blood cancer or pancreatic cancer, and will be dead within six months (we’ve been hearing such tales for years now). He will shortly be toppled by a palace coup. He is about to anoint a successor. And yet he remains stubbornly in place.”

“Nonetheless, he is now 70 years old, is dogged by persistent suggestions of health issues (if not necessarily the fatal ones so often suggested), and perhaps most importantly, has dragged Russia into a disastrous war that will define its relationship with itself and the outside world for at least a generation. While it is impossible meaningfully to predict quite when and how Putin will leave office, the only certainty is that he will, somehow and some day. What then, though?”

https://engelsbergideas.com/essays/is-there-hope-for-russia-after-putin/





Russia’s Fifth Column in Ukraine Is Alive and Well

(Foreign Policy)

“A year after the invasion, Ukraine is riddled with Russian collaborators and sympathizers.”

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/01/17/russia-ukraine-war-collaborators-sympathizers-putin/





A Russian graveyard reveals Wagner’s prisoner army

(Reuters)

“A rapidly expanding cemetery in a southern Russian village offers insight into the convicts who are fighting - and dying - for the secretive mercenary army of Wagner Group.”

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/ukraine-crisis-russia-graves-wagner/



“Bipartisan reps introduce bill to designate Russia’s Wagner Group as foreign terrorists.” - The Hill





Fear and Frustration in Moscow as Air Defense Systems Deployed

(The Moscow Times)

“At least five anti-aircraft missile systems have been spotted across Moscow in recent weeks, appearing in parks and on top of buildings as the Ukraine war — now in its 11th month — creeps closer to the Russian capital.”

“They include what looks to be a Pantsir-S1 surface-to-air system on the roof of the Defense Ministry headquarters a few kilometers from the Kremlin and a S-400 anti-aircraft system near the Timiryazevskaya metro station in the north of the capital. The installation of these systems amid fears that Ukraine, supplied with advanced weaponry from its Western allies, could be capable of targeting Moscow.”

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/01/24/fear-and-frustration-in-moscow-as-air-defense-systems-deployed-a80027





The Russian army in 2023

By Pavel Luzin

(Riddle)

"The Kremlin is sparing no effort to at least partially restore the capability of its armed forces, which continue to shrink amidst heavy fighting. In recent months, neither the large-scale enlistment of prisoners, nor mass conscription, nor supplies of Iranian-made drones, nor command reshuffles coupled with nuclear blackmail have enabled Russia to turn the tide of war in its favour or improve its foreign policy standing.”

“Nevertheless, the Russian authorities clearly intend to continue the war at any cost in order to at least improve their foreign policy status. … By the end of 2023, the Russian command expects to have 521,000 contract soldiers, ‘taking into account the replacement of draftees in the groups of troops and the manning of new formations’.”

“… we can cautiously assume that an army of 1.5 million soldiers is a bureaucratic fantasy designed to secure, among other things, increased war-related salaries paid to soldiers and to mask the total amount of compensation paid to the wounded and the families of those killed, which would otherwise reveal the real death toll to society.”

https://ridl.io/the-russian-army-in-2023/




Opinion: Germany’s Leopard-2 Tanks Will Help Crush Russia

(The National Interest)

“The German decision to send tanks to Ukraine is a turning point. It is now clear that Vladimir Putin signed the death warrant of his regime in invading Ukraine.”

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/germany’s-leopard-2-tanks-will-help-crush-russia-206149



“First Leopards Will Arrive To Ukraine In 3 Months.” - Ukrainian News


“Putin Lackeys Lose Their Minds Over Ukraine Getting Battle Tanks.” - The Daily Beast


“U.S. will supply M1 tanks to Ukraine, as Germany approves Leopards.” - Washington Post


“The M1 Abrams Is the Right Tank for the Job in Ukraine.” - Foreign Policy


“Swarm of Tanks Is Just the Start of Putin’s New Nightmare.” - The Dail;y Beast




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13 January, 2023


Estonia Announces Plan To Seize Russian Assets And Deliver Them To Ukraine

(RFERL | Estonian World Review | others)

“… the Estonian government moves ahead of other EU countries in an effort to elaborate the legal framework that will help Ukraine get the frozen Russian assets to rebuild the country after the Russian-Ukrainian war is over. The legal procedure is supposed to come by the end of January, according to Mihkel Tamm, a spokesman for Estonia’s foreign ministry.”

“Estonia’s anti-money-laundering authority estimates that frozen funds in Russian-owned accounts in the country amount to almost €20 million.”

https://www.rferl.org/a/estonia-russian-assets-ukraine/32217353.html

https://www.eesti.ca/estonia-moves-ahead-of-eu-with-plans-to-seize-frozen-russian-assets/article59886

https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/01/10/estonia-to-introduce-legal-blueprint-for-handing-ukraine-seized-russian-assets-bloomberg/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-09/estonia-to-move-ahead-of-eu-with-plans-to-seize-russian-assets

https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/news/estonia-tells-russia-to-reduce-number-of-employees-at-its-embassy-in-tallinn/



“Expert: Seizure of frozen Russian assets would undermine international law.” - ERR


“Opinion: Freeze—Don’t Seize—Russian Assets.” - Foreign Policy





Euroopa Komisjon tunnustas Eesti kava võtta kasutusele Vene külmutatud varad

(Postimees | ERR)

“Välisminister Urmas Reinsalu (Isamaa) lausus Postimehele, et varade külmutamise küsimus on Eestile väga oluline. Ent asi ei ole mõistagi selles, kui palju muudavad Eestis külmutatud Vene varad olukorda Ukraina sõjas. Neid varasid on siin umbes 20 miljoni euro jagu, Eestile on eelkõige tähtis aga luua pretsedent, et riigid üldse saaksid seda teha, toonitas Reinsalu. «Selle sammuga kutsume riike üles sama tegema. Kutsume ka Euroopa Komisjoni leidma üleeuroopalist lahendust,» lisas Reinsalu.”

https://www.postimees.ee/7690497/euroopa-komisjon-tunnustas-eesti-kava-votta-kasutusele-venemaa-kulmutatud-varad

https://www.err.ee/1608849292/euroopa-komisjon-tervitas-eesti-algatust-vene-varade-konfiskeerimiseks





‘They really can’t poke in the Baltics.’

Putin running out of options in global pressure campaign 

(The Hill)

“Steven Pifer, an expert with Brookings, told The Hill that the Kremlin is likely being careful to not make sure its saber-rattling doesn’t turn into something they’re not prepared to take on.”

“In terms of bellicose actions on the conventional level, it’s really hard for me to see what the Russians could do,” Pifer said. “They really can’t poke in the Baltics. The last thing the Russian general staff wants now would be to have to take on NATO in a conventional fight. So I just think that their options are pretty limited.” 

"All three experts The Hill spoke to predicted Putin would play the waiting game rather than take new, potentially disastrous, risks.”

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3809871-putin-running-out-of-options-in-global-pressure-campaign/




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Friday 13. January 2023



40 aastat Euroopa Parlamendi esimesest resolutsioonist Balti riikide toetuseks

(Postimees)

“Nelikümmend aastat tagasi, 13. jaanuaril 1983 võttis Euroopa Parlament Otto von Habsburgi eestvedamisel vastu resolutsiooni okupeeritud Balti riikide toetuseks. Algatatud resolutsioon oli vastus 45 Eesti, Läti ja Leedu kodaniku avalikule kirjale ehk Balti apellile, milles mõisteti hukka Molotovi-Ribbentropi pakt ja nõuti Balti riikide iseseisvuse taastamist.”

[Forty years ago, on January 13, 1983, the European Parliament adopted a resolution in support of the occupied Baltic states. The initiated resolution was a response to the open letter of 45 citizens of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in which they condemned the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact and demanded the restoration of the independence of the Baltic states.]

https://arvamus.postimees.ee/7689788/piret-tarto-40-aastat-euroopa-parlamendi-esimesest-resolutsioonist-balti-riikide-toetuseks





Russia says Russophobia is the basis of Estonian politics

(BNN)

“The press secretary of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Maria Zakharova, announced on Wednesday, the 11th of January, that hatred towards Russia in Estonia is at the level of political doctrine, and gave indications that Estonia wants to satisfy «overseas curators». Presumably, Zakharova is referring to the United States or Great Britain.”

https://bnn-news.com/russia-russophobia-is-the-basis-of-estonian-politics-241961



“Maria Zakharova: 'Russophobia' official Estonian doctrine.” - ERR





Soome lahe idaosa keskkonnaseisund valmistab teadlastele muret

(Novaator)

“Soome laht on Läänemere üks enam reostunud piirkond. … Soome lahte suubuvad mitmed jõed, näiteks Neeva ja Narva jõgi. Kuna Soome lahe veevahetus on võrreldes teiste Läänemere piirkondadega märksa nõrgem, koguneb sinna palju ohtlikke aineid. Piirkonda mõjutab ka inimtegevus: Soome lahes on suured sadamaalad ja tihe laevaliiklus, mistõttu jõuab sinna naftasaaduste jääke.”

https://novaator.err.ee/1608844192/soome-lahe-idaosa-keskkonnaseisund-valmistab-teadlastele-muret





Estonia's Tax System: Simple, Efficient, and Transparent

(National Review)

“Estonia's Plain and Simple Tax Policy.”

https://www.nationalreview.com/2023/01/estonias-plain-and-simple-tax-policy/





Putin’s Next Big Idea: Have Belarus Invade Ukraine?

(19fortyfive)

“Colonel Roman Voloschuk of the 104th Territorial Defense Brigade revealed how the Ukrainian military has performed military drills in three secret locations in the northwestern regions of Ukraine recently.”

“Voloschuk described how the Ukrainian military is preparing for a possible assault from Belarus. “They can try, but we’re ready for them. We’ve prepared, every turn and every junction has been dug up. There will be colossal resistance from every building,”

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/01/putins-next-big-idea-have-belarus-invade-ukraine/





Ukraine: We are a de facto member of Nato alliance

(BBC)

“Oleksii Reznikov said he was sure Ukraine would receive long-sought weapons, including tanks and fighter jets, as both Ukraine and Russia seemed to be preparing for new offensives in the spring.”

"This concern about the next level of escalation, for me, is some kind of protocol," Mr Reznikov said. "Ukraine as a country, and the armed forces of Ukraine, became [a] member of Nato. De facto, not de jure (by law). Because we have weaponry, and the understanding of how to use it."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64255249




          

Ukrainas haavata saanud Leedu vabatahtlikud peavad ravi omast taskust kinni maksma

(Postimees)

“Mitmekümnest Ukraina sõtta suundunu Leedu vabatahtlikust mõned on saanud rindel haavata, kuid avastanud koju naastes, et peavad ise maksma kinni meditsiinikulud ja taastusravi ning Leedu ringhäälingu LRTga rääkinud Kiievi allikate sõnul pole mingeid märke, et Vilnius oleks valmis omasid aitama.”

https://maailm.postimees.ee/7690425/ukrainas-haavata-saanud-leedu-vabatahtlikud-peavad-ravi-omast-taskust-kinni-maksma








Thursday 12. January



Estonia expels 21 Russian diplomats

(Estonian World Review | Moscow Times)

“Estonia's foreign minister Urmas Reinsalu announced the expulsion of 21 Russian diplomats and embassy staff in order to reach parity between diplomatic personnel between Russia and Estonia on Wednesday. The number of positions at Russia's embassy in Tallinn and Estonia's diplomatic mission in Moscow would now be equal, the foreign ministry added. The expelled individuals have been given until the end of the month to leave Estonia.”

https://www.eesti.ca/estonia-expels-21-russian-diplomats-and-staff/article59892

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/01/11/estonia-announces-expulsion-of-21-russian-diplomatic-staff-a79922



“Estonia expels more Russian diplomats in model for EU.” - EU Observer


“Estonia: recalling the Russian ambassador would be a clear signal.” - BNN





Estonia tells Russia to reduce the number of diplomats in Tallinn

(Reuters | ERR | BNN)

“… by February, the Baltic country's foreign ministry said on Wednesday. It said in a statement Russia should cut the number of diplomats to eight, equivalent to the number of Estonian diplomats in Moscow. The Russian embassy in Tallinn lists 17 diplomats on its website.”

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/estonia-tells-russia-reduce-number-diplomats-tallinn-2023-01-11/

https://news.err.ee/1608846436/estonia-tells-russia-to-reduce-embassy-staff-by-half

https://bnn-news.com/estonia-demands-to-reduce-the-number-of-employees-in-the-russian-embassy-241905





How allied Sweden and Finland can secure Northern Europe

(Atlantic Council)

“(NATO should) use the accession of Sweden and Finland to create an ambitious deterrence-by-denial “bubble” over Northern Europe. Such a strategy does not merely include military capabilities but must be underpinned by civil robustness and resilience that stretch across NATO territory. Operationally, allies in Northern Europe should prepare to assume greater responsibility as first responders in case of a severe security situation, below or at the level of Article 5. For this to succeed, political cooperation and agenda setting must intensify among Northern European allies.”

“… NATO has been too passive, not taking sufficient advantage of its strengths to assure capacity to operate within its own territory. So far, NATO’s response has been to increase presence in peacetime in the air and the waters affected, and to invest in capabilities that could “break the bubble” in case shooting started. This needs to change, as the aim expressed in the strategic concept is to “deny any potential adversary any possible opportunities for aggression.” NATO should reflect on the fact that Russia uses A2/AD strategy as part of its comprehensive approach to deterrence. If NATO could do the same, a new form of strategic balance could be established, which would serve to stabilize and prevent military conflict from breaking out.”

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/how-allied-sweden-finland-can-secure-northern-europe/



“Estonian defense chief: Russia will attack if it knows we cannot fight back.” - ERR


“Zelenskyy and Karis talk for first time in new year.” - Yahoo


“The number of Ukrainian refugees reaching Estonia has begun to fall – from 8,000 in October to under 3,500 in December.” - ERR





Sweden says Turkey asking for too much over NATO application

(Reuters, 8. Jan)

"Turkey both confirms that we have done what we said we would do, but they also say that they want things that we cannot or do not want to give them," Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson told a defence think-tank conference in Sweden.”

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/swedish-pm-says-cannot-meet-all-turkeys-demands-nato-membership-support-2023-01-08/



“Sweden insists NATO membership talks with Turkey progressing well.” - Politico Europe





Nearly half of Europeans say their standards of living have 'already' declined as crises mount 

(Euronews)

“The cost-of-living crisis triggered by the Ukraine war, the energy crunch, surging inflation and the coronavirus pandemic has become the greatest worry for European Union citizens, according to a new Eurobarometer that shows 45% of respondents are currently having "some" or "a lot" difficulties with their personal income. The poll speaks of a "polycrisis mood" across the continent.”

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2023/01/12/nearly-half-of-europeans-say-their-standards-of-living-have-already-declined-as-crises-mou





74 % of Europeans support EU’s backing for Ukraine, poll finds

(Politico Europe)

“Almost as many — 73 % — said they agreed with the EU’s financial, military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine as well as sanctions against Russia, just as member countries are considering whether to speed up their military support for Ukraine.”

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-war-europe-support-74-percent-polls/









Wednesday 11. January



Nursipalu harjutusväli juba laieneb – läheb teeninduslinnaku ehituseks

Ülle Harju, ajakirjanik

(Postimees)

“Ala on valitud seetõttu, et see asub Tsiatsungõlmaa lasketiiru läheduses, on lähedal Võru Taara linnakule ning asub olemasolevale harjutusväljale lähedal,» põhjendas RKIKi harjutusväljade portfellijuht Elari Kalmaru.”

“Ettevõtmisega on kiire: juba 6. veebruariks peavad huvitatud ettevõtted tegema hinnapakkumise. Hanke võitja peab koostama projekti ning vähem kui 1,5 aastaga rajama Võru linna külje alla teeninduslinnaku koos ümbritseva välisruumi ning linnaku toimimiseks vajalike trasside ja ehitistega. Lisaks Tsiatsungõlmaa alale (kokku ligi 32 hektarit) hõlmab teeninduslinnak ka ümbritsevaid Võrumaa metskonna metsi. Uude linnakusse rajatakse 15 hoonet kogupindalaga ligi hektar (100 x 100 m).”

https://www.postimees.ee/7688274/nursipalu-harjutusvali-juba-laieneb-laheb-teeninduslinnaku-ehituseks





The Irreversible Change in Belarus

By Anna Nemtsova

(The Atlantic)

“Belarus opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya discusses how the war in neighboring Ukraine is affecting her own people’s bid for freedom.”

“Lukashenko is under severe pressure from Putin to play a more active part in Moscow’s “special military operation” in Ukraine. In recent weeks, military analysts have noted a buildup of forces in Belarus that might presage a renewed assault over the border into northern Ukraine. Tsikhanouskaya, meanwhile, has become a sort of roving international ambassador for her country, working to raise the profile of Belarus’s fight for democracy and human rights, which is in many ways similar to that of its Ukrainian neighbor.”

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2023/01/sviatlana-tsikhanouskaya-belarus-russia-lukashenko-putin/672666/



“Belarus Also Wrestling with Brain Drain Problem.” - Paul Goble





Estonia firmly supports the democratic aspirations of the Belarusian opposition

(Baltic Times | ERR)

“Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Reinsalu and Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya attended a public webinar on democracy in Belarus, with Reinsalu expressing support to the democratic aspirations of the people of Belarus and underlining that more pressure must be put on the Lukashenko regime.”

https://www.baltictimes.com/estonian_formin__we_must_continue_isolating_lukashenko_regime__step_up_sanctions/

https://news.err.ee/1608845590/estonian-fm-calls-for-continued-isolation-of-belarus-lukashenko-regime



“Journalists from Belarus' top news outlet go on trial.” - Washington Post


“Belarus: 32 journalists are currently behind bars, awaiting trial or serving their sentences.” - ABCNews





Receiving a parcel in Estonia from outside the EU is treated as an offence

By Sten Hankewitz

(Estonian World - 7. Jan)

“The Estonian postal and customs system deliberately makes receiving parcels from outside of the EU difficult – and for no other reason than ‘because it is so’.”

https://estonianworld.com/opinion/sten-hankewitz-receiving-a-parcel-in-estonia-from-outside-the-eu-its-treated-as-an-offence/





Latvia and Estonia discuss joint air defense

(Latvian Broadcasting)

“Latvian Defense Minister Ināra Mūrniece met with Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur during a working visit to Tallinn.”

https://eng.lsm.lv/article/society/defense/latvia-and-estonia-discuss-joint-air-defense.a491071/





Estonian Air: A Fleet History

(Simple Flying)

“A former national carrier of Estonia operated a small but unconventional fleet of aircraft.”

https://simpleflying.com/estonian-air-fleet-history/





The Arsenal of Democracy Is Back in Business. Sales to NATO almost doubled

(Foreign Policy)

“The three Baltic countries on NATO’s vulnerable eastern flank—Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia—all pursued plans to procure the types of U.S. long-range rocket and missile systems that helped Ukraine turn the tide of the war against Russia in recent months. The State Department approved a plan to sell up to six HIMARS rocket launchers to Estonia in July under its foreign military sales program, in a deal worth around $500 million. It approved a similar sale to Lithuania in November. A U.S. deal to sell HIMARS to Latvia is expected to be announced in early 2023, according to several U.S. and European officials familiar with the matter.”

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/12/29/arms-sales-united-states-nato-russia-ukraine-war-the-arsenal-of-democracy-is-back-in-business/





Levada Center Director: “Russians Have Little Compassion for the Ukrainians”

(Spiegel)

“Interview with Lev Gudkov, the scientific director of the Levada Center, the only independently operating opinion research institute in Russia. When Gudkov surveyed the mood among people in Russia shortly after the war began, it was a watershed moment, he says. At the time, 68 percent of respondents supported the attack on Ukraine. Ten months later, the picture he paints is even bleaker.

https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/opinion-researcher-lev-gudkov-russians-have-little-compassion-for-the-ukrainians-a-066c08c6-60f4-48e1-853a-d2b3d67bd6b8








- Putin’s War -



Like the Bolsheviks in 1917, Putin has Destroyed Russia, Leaving It Much Like Hitler’s Germany in 1944

By Leonid Gozman, Paul Goble

“Russia was destroyed once before, by the Bolsheviks in 1917, Gozman says; and it took decades of often painful effort to come back. What is happening now is “something very similar.” Before this year, Russia was associated with both good and bad things; but now it is associated in the minds of the world only with the bad just like Hitler’s Reich.”

            “Not only is there no Russia, there is no Russian army, and there is no Russian president either, the politician says. “Everything tht we build since the late 1980s has been destroyed. There is no Russian culture.” Instead, there is “an emptiness” that references to Russian classics of the past cannot fill.”

http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2023/01/like-bolsheviks-in-1917-putin-has.html





‘Hellish’ battle for Soledar symbolises state of Russia’s war in Ukraine

(The Guardian)

“Fall of saltmining town would be propaganda coup for Kremlin but analysts say scale of casualties make it a pyrrhic victory.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/13/hellish-battle-soledar-symbolises-russia-war-ukraine



“Russian War Chiefs Squabble Over Credit for Allegedly Capturing Town.” - The Daily Beast


“Russia is touting a rare military victory, but Ukraine disputes that claim.” - NPR


“Russia Claims Win, Analysts Say Capture of Soledar Is ‘Pyrrhic Victory’.” - The Moscow Times


“Ukraine has rejected claims by Russia of a rare battleground success.” - RFERL


“What the Disaster in Ukraine Has Done to the Kremlin—and to Russia.” - Foreign Affairs





Report: Russia’s Anti-Putin Underground

By ‘The Popular Front’

“Anti-Putin Russian partisans began to launch sabotage operations against Kremlin infrastructure inside their country. After almost one year of war, these cells in Russia have grown exponentially. From Moscow to Vladivostok, there have been more than 80 confirmed anti-government attacks in the past 12 months.”

“To document Russia's anti-Putin underground first hand, journalists met with two members of one of the most well organised Russian partisan groups.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1u1lXr1vShI



“Meet the dissident Russians living the nightmare from which it is impossible to wake up from.” - CNN





Venemaa uus sihtmärk on kaardid, kus Krimm kuulub veel Ukrainale

(Postimees)

[It may soon become a crime in Russia to print maps where Crimea and other parts of Ukraine are not depicted as Russian territory.]

https://wallstreetjournal.postimees.ee/7690289/wsj-venemaa-uus-sihtmark-on-kaardid-kus-krimm-kuulub-veel-ukrainale





Russia replaces general in charge of Ukraine war in latest military shake-up

(The Guardian | 19fortyfive | Moscow Times)

“Russia has appointed Valery Gerasimov, chief of the general staff, as its overall commander for the war in Ukraine, in the latest of several major shake-ups of Moscow’s military leadership during the stumbling invasion of its neighbour. In a statement, the defence ministry said that Gerasimov’s appointment constituted a “raising of the status of the leadership” of the military force in Ukraine and was implemented to “improve the quality … and effectiveness of the management of Russian forces”.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/11/russia-replaces-general-in-charge-of-ukraine-war-in-latest-military-shake-up?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2023/01/yikes-putin-just-dumped-his-top-commander-in-ukraine/

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/12/vladimir-putin-military-reshuffle-more-about-politics-than-a-change-of-strategy

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/01/12/russias-war-leadership-reset-signals-power-struggle-among-top-brass-experts-a79926





Putin’s shake-up of Russia’s commanders won’t quell infighting

(Politico Europe)

“After only three months as overall commander of Russia’s war, General Sergei Surovikin has been replaced by his boss, Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, the country’s most senior soldier. Colonel General Alexander Lapin was promoted to chief of the general staff of the ground forces. Both Western security analysts and pro-war Russian military veterans, however, are skeptical this game of musical chairs will trigger any game-changing tactics or help restore momentum to the Russian campaign. Surovikin will continue as Gerasimov’s battlefield deputy.”

“They see the shake-up as largely political, and a sign of infighting in the Kremlin, with the defense ministry trying to reassert control of the management of the war and to curb the growing influence of paramilitary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the mercenary Wagner Group.”

https://www.politico.eu/article/putins-reshuffle-russia-commanders-quell-infighting/





The brutal methods of Russia’s Wagner Group

(The New Statesman)

“Since its founding Wagner has been deployed as a shadow arm of Russian foreign policy – used to prop up Kremlin allies around the world, always conveniently deniable and difficult to conclusively link to Putin. Wagner mercenaries turned up wherever there was a war in which the Kremlin had a stake. They have reportedly been deployed on battlefields in Ukraine, South Sudan and the Central African Republic. Wagner has been linked to several atrocities in Africa, such as a March 2022 massacre in the Malian town of Moura, in which government forces and Wagner soldiers allegedly murdered over 300 people during a campaign against Islamist rebels. The group also fought in support of Bashar al-Assad’s forces during the Syrian Civil War.”

https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/ukraine/2022/11/brutal-methods-russia-wagner-group-vladimir-putin



“The Russian history of destruction.” - Novaya Gazeta Europe





Opinion: It’s High Time to Prepare for Russia’s Collapse

By Alexander J. Motyl, Rutgers University

(Foreign Policy, 7. Jan.)

“(Policymakers) should avoid repeating the mistakes of the past, such as trying to help a clearly dying Soviet Union survive and prioritizing the needs of Russia over those of its neighbors.”

“The countries along Russia’s border - from the Baltic states to Central Asia - will be key to containing whatever instability takes place within Russia. They will also be key to helping the Russian Federation’s newly independent successor states stabilize and behave with moderation.”

“Seen in this light, continued strong Western support for Ukraine—and eventually for a free Belarus and key countries like Kazakhstan—is the best guarantee that the aftershocks will be minimized if Putin’s empire comes to an end.”

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/01/07/russia-ukraine-putin-collapse-disintegration-civil-war-empire/





Russia’s capitulation as its saving grace

Opinion by Leonid Gozman

(Novaya Gazeta Europe, 14. Dec, 2022)

“The war started by Vladimir Putin has no rational or achievable goals. This war is not about trying to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO … This war is solely about destroying Ukraine: as a state, as a culture, as a nation. Putin does not like Ukraine: that’s just how it is. He never tried to hide his goals either.”

“We have grounds to believe that destroying Ukraine is just an intermediate goal. It should be followed by another war aiming to subjugate the entire Western (European, Christian) civilisation to Putin. … This is why this war cannot end with the signing of treaties or with reaching a compromise between the warring sides, as most wars in history do. Ukraine cannot agree with the condition that demands it to cease to exist as a state.”

https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2022/12/14/russias-capitulation-as-its-saving-grace-en



“Opinion: Putin Has No Red Lines.” - New York Times




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