NATO võtab initsiatiivi
(Postimees Juhtkiri)
“Venemaa on tekitanud kõige tõsisema julgeolekukriisi Euroopas pärast Teist maailmasõda, ähvardades juba üle kahe kuu Ukrainat täiemahulise sõjalise agressiooniga. Seni on USA ja lääneriigid üksnes reageerinud Venemaa sammudele, nüüd on lõpuks asutud tegudele.”
Russian military move into Belarus poses risks to more than Ukraine
(Washington Post)
“The Baltic countries are warning their NATO allies that Russian military exercises underway in Belarus could lead to a permanent Russian troop presence in that Eastern European country, with alarming risks for the long-term security of the Western alliance. … They have called for additional NATO reinforcements along the alliance’s eastern flank to redress the imbalance.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/12/russia-baltics-nato-suwalki-gap/
ERR Valgevenes: “Lukašenko sõnul jäävad Vene väed riiki nii kauaks kui vaja.”
“Where Does Belarus Stand in the Russia-West Standoff?” - Carnegie Moscow
“Valgevenel on keeruline jääda Venemaa ja lääne vastasseisus erapooletuks.” - ERR
“Belarus’ risky balancing act with Russia and Ukraine.” - Politico
__________
Friday 18. February
Kallas kohtumisel Harrisega: meil on kindlus, et NATO kaitseb igat ruutmeetrit alliansi territooriumist
(Postimees)
“Peaminister Kaja Kallas kohtus reedel Müncheni julgeolekukonverentsil koos Läti presidendi Egils Levitsi ja Leedu presidendi Gitanas Nausėdaga USA asepresidendi Kamala Harrisega.”
“President Karis: sõjaoht Ukrainas on suurem kui nädal tagasi.” - ERR
“U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris met NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and leaders from three Baltic nations on Friday and said Russia must show it is open to diplomacy, while warning Moscow of severe consequences if it invades Ukraine.”
“Latvia urges West to keep talking to Moscow to make an attack more difficult.” - The Star
“Eesti soovitab vältida reisimist Ukrainaga piirnevatele aladele Venemaal.” - ERR
Kaitsevägi on täiendavate Suurbritannia sõdurite saabumiseks valmis
(Postimees)
“Ministeeriumi teatel jõuavad üksuse tehnika ja isikkoosseis Eestisse järgmiste päevade ning nädalate jooksul. Kaitseministeerium kinnitab, et Eesti on suurendatud liitlasvägede vastuvõtmiseks valmis. Täiendav Ühendkuningriigi pataljon paigutatakse Tapa sõjaväelinnakusse. Sealjuures kasutatakse 2020. aasta suvel valminud komplekteerimisala (RSOM), mis on just sellisteks puhkudeks rajatud. Komplekteerimisala juurde kuuluvad varustuse ja transpordivahendite ladustamise ala, majutus-, remondi- ja toitlustushallid, telkimisalad, kütuse ning ohtlike jäätmete käitlemise ala ning meditsiinikeskuse laiendus koos kopteriplatsiga.”
—
“Poolteist aastat tagasi rajatud komplekteerimisala rajati just seesuguste olukordade tarbeks, kus kriisitingimustes on vaja kiiresti suurendada sõdurite arvu ja tehnika hulka. See võimaldab paigutada Tapale tavapärasest tunduvalt rohkem sõdureid. Samuti on komplekteerimisala lühiajaliste õppuste baas.”
https://www.postimees.ee/7456907/kaitsevagi-on-taiendavate-suurbritannia-sodurite-saabumiseks-valmis
“'Shouldn't underestimate' importance of British Army's Estonia deployment.” - Forces Net
“Briti täiendav väekontingent asus Saksamaalt Eestisse teele.” - ERR
“Deployment of additional UK troops to Estonia confirmed.” - ERR
“Venemaa hoiatas USAd sõjaliste sammude eest, kui vägesid Ida-Euroopast ära ei viida.” - Postimees
“Ekspert: NATO võiks Balti riikidesse tuua 500-kilomeetrise ulatusega raketid.” - ERR
Estonia delivered it’s Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine
(Reuters)
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/estonia-sends-javelin-anti-tank-weapons-ukraine-2022-02-18/
Soome presidendi hinnangul tuleb kõige kiuste Kremliga kõnelusi jätkata
(Postimees)
“Soome presidendi Sauli Niinistö sõnul on olukord Läänemerel praegu üllatuslikult rahulikum või vähemalt vähem relvastatud kui varem.”
China lashes out at Estonian spy agency after report alleges ‘strong-arm’ tactics from Beijing
(South China Morning Post)
“Estonia becomes second Baltic nation in the EU after Lithuania to become caught up in a spat with China.”
New large-scale energy efficient data center opens in Tallinn
(Estonian World)
“The building that cost nearly €40 million is the first of the three buildings to be built in the same area, all of which will contribute to the development of the Baltics’ e-commerce and digital societies …”
https://estonianworld.com/technology/a-new-large-scale-data-centre-opens-in-estonia/
“Greenergy Data Center’s website.”
Kaja Kallas: ‘There is a certain naivety towards Russia’
(Financial Times, paywall)
“Estonia has been on the frontline between Nato and Russia ever (since) it joined the army alliance in 2004. However the safety scenario within the Baltics and Europe … has been at its most tense in a long time after Russia massed troops on Ukraine’s border and in addition in Belarus, near the slender land border that ties the Baltics to the remainder of Europe.”
https://www.ft.com/content/098ba985-1284-46c6-9abe-f626fa9e47f0
EU unity is vexing Putin, Estonian prime minister Kaja Kallas says
(Politico Europe)
“In the last two weeks, both French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have met with Putin in Moscow in an effort to defuse tensions over Russia’s massive military build-up along Ukraine’s border. In each case, Kallas said, “we were consulted before those meetings took place and after.” And according to “different sources,” Kallas added, Russia was “negatively surprised because, even if they are having separate meetings, even behind closed doors, the talking points are still the same.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-unity-is-vexing-vladimir-putin-estonian-prime-minister-says/
“Putin "Clearly Enjoying Himself” - Estonian PM.” - NDTV
“Estonian intelligence: Russia believes world set to return to normalcy as Kremlin sees it.” - Baltic Times
Interview: Russia scholar Fiona Hill
(AP)
“Even if the U.S. succeeds in deterring Russian President Vladimir Putin from ordering a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, he will remain determined to bring Ukraine to heel and has “a whole host of options of things that he can do.”
Interview: Garry Kasparov
(The Bulwark Podcast)
“Putin Is a Merchant of Doubt.”
https://cms.megaphone.fm/channel/WWO9257218156?selected=WWO4022771445
Venemaa nõuab USA vägede lahkumist Ida-Euroopast. Kaja Kallas ütles et Venemaa nõudmine on absurdne
(ERR)
ERR küsis: “Venemaa mainis oma kirjas USA-le otseselt Balti riike, öeldes, et Ühendriikide väed peavad sealt lahkuma. See on muidugi vana jutt, kuid kuidas peaksime sellesse nõudmisse suhtuma?”
—
Kallas vastas: “Me peaksime sellesse nõudmisse suhtuma nii, nagu see on ehk (see on) absurdne nõudmine ja seda saavad kõik meie liitlased aru. Meie liitlased on kinnitanud meile nii üks-ühele kui kollektiivselt, et artikkel viis ja meie kollektiivne kaitse on ka nende asi. Nii et nad seisavad meie selja taga nagu üks mees.”
https://www.err.ee/1608503783/kaja-kallas-venemaa-noudmine-on-absurdne
—
https://www.err.ee/1608503588/venemaa-nouab-usa-vagede-lahkumist-ida-euroopast
“Ukraina mässulised süüdistavad valitsust suurtükirünnakus.” - ERR
“Mihkelson: Venemaa laiendas oma nõudmisi USA-le.” - ERR
“Kallas kohtub Münchenis Kamala Harrisega.” - ERR
“Москва отреагировала на ответ Вашингтона по гарантиям безопасности.” - Kommersant
Russia sending its newest tanks to Ukraine border
(Defense Blog)
“… almost 20 of Russia’s newest T-90M Proryv-3 (Breakthrough-3) main battle tanks were spotted in Kastornaya in the Kursk region, just 83 kilometers (51 miles) from the Ukrainian border. T-90M tanks, which were spotted near the Ukrainian border, are assigned to 1st Guards Tank Army of the Western Military District, stationed in Mosrentgen, Novomoskovsky Administrative Okrug of Moscow.”
https://defence-blog.com/russia-sending-its-newest-tanks-to-ukraine-border/
“How Threatening is Russia's Upgraded T-90 Tank?” - Warrior Maven
“Putin to oversee Saturday’s nuclear drills during standoff over Ukraine.” - Reuters
“Belarus says it could host nuclear weapons if threatened.” - CBS News
Thursday 17. February
Estonia’s Anett Kontaveit is destined for even greater things this year
(Tennis World)
“If Anett Kontaveit is able to translate her incredible indoor winning streak into bigger prizes on the WTA calendar, she will join an elite group of female players who went on to do the same. Those players include Steffi Graf, Monica Seles, Lindsay Davenport, Justine Henin and Jana Novotna …”
Secretary Blinken’s Meeting with Estonian Foreign Minister Liimets
(US Embassy - Georgia)
“… They also noted the upcoming 100-year anniversary, in July, of U.S.-Estonia diplomatic relations and expressed readiness to deepen our cooperation further in the next 100 years of our partnership.”
https://ge.usembassy.gov/secretary-blinkens-meeting-with-estonian-foreign-minister-liimets/
Secretary Antony J. Blinken on Russia’s Threat to Peace and Security at the UN Security Council
(US Department of State Transcript)
“We don’t know precisely how things will play out, but here’s what the world can expect to see unfold. … First, Russia plans to manufacture a pretext for its attack. This could be a violent event that Russia will blame on Ukraine, or an outrageous accusation that Russia will level against the Ukrainian Government. … Second, in response to this manufactured provocation, the highest levels of the Russian Government may theatrically convene emergency meetings to address the so-called crisis. … “
—
“Next, the attack is planned to begin. Russian missiles and bombs will drop across Ukraine. Communications will be jammed. Cyberattacks will shut down key Ukrainian institutions. After that, Russian tanks and soldiers will advance on key targets that have already been identified and mapped out in detailed plans. We believe these targets include Russia’s capital –Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, a city of 2.8 million people. …”
Are Russia’s demands on NATO violating its promise to respect Lithuania's security?
(LRT)
“On July 29, 1991, the then Russian President Boris Yeltsin and Lithuanian leader Vytautas Landsbergis signed a treaty on Vilnius-Moscow relations. Article Two of the treaty declared that “the contracting parties recognise each other’s right to independently exercise their sovereignty in the field of defence and security in forms acceptable to them […] through collective security systems”. In other words, this provision recognised Lithuania’s right to choose its own security guarantees, including the possibility of joining collective security and defence organisations of its choice.”
Finland Is a Valuable Security Contributor, NATO or Not
(CEPA)
“Given Russia’s recent military build-up near Ukraine and the debate on Finland’s possible NATO membership, it’s easy to forget that Helsinki is already intimately tied to the West. … Even so, a NATO membership application seems unlikely.”
https://cepa.org/nato-or-not-finland-is-a-valuable-security-contributor/
Finns’ views of NATO affected by concerns about reaction from Russia
(Helsinki Times)
“If the political leadership of Finland declared that Nato membership is in the best interests of the country, 43 per cent of the public would be in favour of the membership, reveals a survey commissioned by Helsingin Sanomat. More than a quarter (27%) of the respondents would oppose and 30 per cent would remain uncertain about joining.”
Interview: Finnish President Niinistö on Putin and the Ukraine Conflict
(Spiegel)
“It’s totally impossible for me to guess what Putin wants. In December, I wrote the following in my journal: At first, I thought that Ukraine is just the bait for the Kremlin, and the catch is on the general demands towards the U.S. and NATO. But maybe, in the end, Russia also wants to eat the bait. I now think it may have more to do with Ukraine. I think the implementation of the Minsk agreement is a key issue for Russia.”
Finnish President Sauli Niinisto Knows Putin Well. And He Fears for Ukraine
(New York Times, paywall)
“As the threat of a new Russian invasion of Ukraine grew, the European head of state with the longest and deepest experience dealing with Vladimir V. Putin fielded calls and doled out advice to President Emmanuel Macron of France and other world leaders desperate for insight into his difficult neighbor to the east.”
—
“‘What do you think about this about this, what about this, or this?’ That’s where I try to be helpful,” said Sauli Niinisto, the president of Finland, as the harsh light gleaming off the snow and frozen bay poured into the presidential residence. “They know that I know Putin,” he added. “And because it goes the other way around Putin sometimes says, ‘Well, why don’t you tell your Western friends that and that and that?’”
“As Finland Watches: From Alignment To Alliance?” - War on the Rocks
“Every day without an invasion is a win for diplomacy.” - Yle
On the Edge of a Polish Forest, Where Some of Putin’s Darkest Fears Lurk
(New York Times via The Seattle Times)
“A U.S. missile facility in Poland is at the heart of an issue animating the Kremlin’s calculations over whether to go to war against Ukraine. … for President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, the military base in Poland, and another in Romania, are evidence of what he sees as the threat posed by NATO’s eastward expansion — and part of his justification for his military encirclement of Ukraine.”
—
“The Pentagon describes the two sites as defensive and unrelated to Russia, but the Kremlin believes they could be used to shoot down Russian rockets or to fire offensive cruise missiles at Moscow.”
—
“Aegis Ashore in Poland on Target for 2022.” - US Dept. of Defense
“The Aegis Weapon System at Redzikowo, Poland.” - US Missle Defense Agency, June 2021 news release
How Diplomats Can Prevent War in Ukraine
(Foreign Policy)
“The immediate roots of the current crisis can be traced to two distinct diplomatic failures. First, the Soviet Union’s collapse created a vacuum in much of Eastern Europe, and no new security structure was negotiated to replace it. Instead, NATO expanded into most, but not all, of the former Soviet-controlled spaces with the enthusiastic backing of former Warsaw Pact members, Soviet republics, and Western governments during years when Russia was relatively weak. The question of what to do with the other lands on Russia’s western periphery was never resolved; there has never been a “political settlement concerning the post-Soviet space,” in the words of historian Serhii Plokhy.“
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/02/17/diplomacy-war-ukraine-russia-crimea/
“After 30 Years of Peace, Ukraine Crisis Shakes Europeans.” - New York Times
Wednesday 16. February
Eerik-Niiles Kross: kas täna on 1. september 1939?
(Postimees)
“2. septembril 1939 kirjutas Postimees, et Eesti ei ole puudutatud Euroopa kriisist. 1. septembri varahommikul oli alanud Teine maailmasõda. «Meie ümbruses on kõik rahulik ja vaikne. Pole mingit mõistlikku põhjust arvata, et see seisukord muutuma peaks. Pinevuse pesa, millest juttu oli, asub meist kaugel ja meie ei ole olukorrast puudutatud. ... meie tahame eemale hoiduda igasugusest rahvusvahelisest kokkupõrkest /…/ kuna selleks ei ole mingit vajadust. Riigi sise-elu voolab harilikku rada. Rahvas nii maal kui linnas teeb rahulikult oma tööd.» Baaside lepinguni oli siis 26 päeva.”
—
“1. septembri õhtul 1939 toimus ka kõrgemate sõjaväelaste nõupidamine kaitseväe juhataja Johan Laidoneri juures, kus arutati Saksamaa rünnakut Poola vastu. Laidoner oli selle lõpetanud tõdemusega, et oht Balti riikidele on suur. «Uus in inimsoo draama on alanud, keegi ei tea ega oska ette näha, millega see lõpeb, kuid üks on kindel – sõjast tuleb välja uus, teine maailm, mis ei ole sarnane olemasolevale. …”
Salme tuulepargis murdus tuulik
(ERR)
“Teisipäeva õhtul murdus Saaremaal Salme tuulepargis Oleg ja Andres Sõnajalale kuuluv 60 meetri kõrgune elektrituulik pooleks. Inimesed kannatada ei saanud.”
https://www.err.ee/1608502058/galerii-salme-tuulepargis-murdus-tuulik
Heightened tension puts Nordic Region on NATO’s radar
(Norden Org.)
“We’ve seen significant Russian military rearmament in the Baltic, with the deployment of new modern weapon systems.” - Jens Stoltenberg
https://www.norden.org/en/news/heightened-tension-puts-nordic-region-nato-radar
“Estonian civilians prepare for action in case Russia attacks.” - Deutsche Welle video
“Defense minister: No direct Russia threat to Estonia, but risk rising.” - ERR
“Estonia’s president warns of Russian hybrid warfare.” - Financial Times
“Europe's military threat will rise if Russia invades Ukraine, Estonia's foreign spy agency warns.” - Sky News
“NATO boss Stoltenberg says Russian threat is ‘new normal’.” - Politico
“Fears Putin will invade Lithuania, Latvia & Estonia in ‘Hitler-style’ land grab." - The Sun (tabloid)
“Russia 'likely' to launch 'limited' attack against Ukraine - Estonian intelligence.” - Reuters via Jerusalem Post
“Russia aims to ward off NATO in the event of a Ukraine invasion.” - Washington Post
“UK will double the number of troops in Estonia as part of NATO mission.” - Reuters
“U.S. spy planes are keeping Putin’s buildup in the open.” - Foreign Policy
“Statement by NATO Defence Ministers on the situation in and around Ukraine.” - NATO
“U.S. and NATO say Russia is building up troops near Ukraine, not withdrawing them.” - Reuters
“Russia and Belarus training ‘for a conflict with NATO,’ Estonia says.” - Washington Examiner
“Russians scoff at Western fears of Ukraine invasion.” - AP via NPR
“Threat of More Economic Sanctions May Not Deter Vladimir Putin.” - The New Yorker
A Full-Scale Invasion of Ukraine ‘Would Mean the End of the Current Russian Regime’ - Putin Won’t Risk That
By Paul Goble
“Vladislav Inozemtsev says … while Putin very much wants to join Belarus to Russia, steps in that direction will lead to a social explosion in Belarus that “will be much more massive and decisive than the ones in August of last year” concerning the presidential election Alyaksandr Lukashenka stole.”
—
“In the course of an extensive interview, Inozemtsev makes a number of other observations about the reasons behind the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the prospects for Russia if it does not cease to be an empire.”
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2022/02/a-full-scale-invasion-of-ukraine-would.html
“How Russian media outlets are preparing an attack on Ukraine.” - DW
The Russian people would lose badly from Putin’s war
(Foreign Policy)
“A war with Ukraine would bring nothing good for Russia, no matter how it plays out. Neither Ukraine itself nor its accession to NATO poses a threat to Russia. A stable and effective democracy in Ukraine threatens the Russian regime, but that’s quite another question. A war would bring Russia enormous human losses, a sharp deterioration in its economic position, an exacerbation of all social problems, total isolation, and the transformation of the country into a military encampment.’
—
“Tragically, none of this means a war can’t happen—for reasons linked to the psychology of Russian President Vladimir Putin and his cronies. But don’t make the mistake of thinking that the Russian people themselves want this war—or that they wouldn’t also be victims of it. The Russian government and Putin personally have been unable to accept reality: the existence of an independent Ukraine. …”
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/02/15/putin-west-russia-ukraine-war/
How Russia’s neighbours are turning against Putin
(The New Statesman)
“Putin is right that his country’s neighbours are turning away from Russia. But he is wrong about the cause: the blame lies not with Nato, but with his own belligerence.”
—
“Survey the picture today, travelling anti-clockwise around the Russian border, and a remarkable sweep of alienation emerges. Start with the Baltic states. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania pivoted quickly to the West after the fall of the Soviet Union, and joined the EU and Nato in 2004. For years they did not host Nato troops, but that changed after Russia’s assault on Ukraine in 2014, when the alliance deployed a deterrent “enhanced forward presence” in all three states. “Paradoxically, since Vladimir Putin’s arrival in the Kremlin 20 years ago, Russia’s ability to influence or even destabilise the Baltic states has decreased,” writes the foreign policy expert Una Bergmane. To the north, Sweden and Finland, long proud of their neutrality, are now considering whether to join Nato – another defensive reaction to Putin’s aggression.”
https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2022/02/how-russias-neighbours-are-turning-against-putin
Tuesday 15. February
Margus Tsahkna: täna ei ole õige aeg Eesti-Vene piirilepingust rääkida
(Postimees)
“Välisminister Eva-Maria Liimets (Keskerakond) kinnitas riigikogus peetus välispoliitilises ettekandes, et valitsus on endiselt seisukohal Eesti-Vene piirilepingu ratifitseerimise vajalikkuses. Endine kaitseminister Margus Tsahkna (Eesti 200) toetab pikemas plaanis lepingu ratifitseerimist, aga täna ei ole tema hinnangul õige aeg seda dialoogi elustada. «Olukorras, kus Venemaa rikub brutaalselt kõikvõimalikke rahvusvahelisi kokkuleppeid, tundub see kohatu,» leidis ta Postimehe otsesaates.”
Välisluureamet: Hiina saatkond kogub Eesti kodanike isiklikke e-posti aadresse
(ERR)
“Hiina saatkond on pidevalt kogunud Eesti kodanike isiklikke e-posti aadresse, et neid vajadusel ära kasutada, kirjutatakse välisluureameti aastaraportis. Hiina strateegiliste eesmärkide saavutamisel mängib senisest veelgi olulisemat rolli läbikaalutud meediasõda.”
Everyone in Estonia must be prepared for outbreak of war in Ukraine
(Baltic Times | Estonian World | BNN)
“During a Cabinet meeting on security on Monday morning, members of the Estonian government were briefed on the latest developments related to the Ukraine crisis, and it was stated that although there is no direct military threat to Estonia, the spill-over effects of the war must be taken into account in the fields of cyber and internal security, energy and economy, along with the possibility of there being war refugees.”
https://www.baltictimes.com/pm__everyone_in_estonia_must_be_prepared_for_outbreak_of_war_in_ukraine/
—
—
Kaja Kallas: We haven’t seen any real de-escalation in Ukraine yet
(Estonian World / CNN video)
“Well, we believe it when we see it, but we don’t see it yet,” Kallas said of the supposed Russian pullback. “Russia has done this military buildup around Ukraine already [for] months. They had the military exercise called ‘Zapad’. Zapad means the West in Russian and they actually exercised how to attack the West.”
—
“It has been going on for months, so nothing happens in a few days or a few hours. …”
“Scepticism over Russian claim that troops are withdrawing from border.” - Euronews
Ukraine's Great Famine memories fuel resentment of Kremlin
(BBC)
“Resentment of Moscow in Ukraine has deep historical roots. In the Great Famine of the 1930s, as many as four million Ukrainians died during the forced collectivisation of farms by Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin. … Ukraine calls the deaths of an estimated four million people in the famine of 1932-33 the Holodomor - killing by starvation.”
—
“As all nations know, memory is a powerful weapon. The story of the Holodomor is central to Ukraine's idea of itself as a country that defies Russian domination.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60353677
“Scholz, Zelenskiy play down talk of NATO membership for Ukraine.” - Politico
“Ukraine says government websites and banks were hit with denial of service attack.” - NPR
“3 decades of turmoil bring Ukraine to perhaps its greatest crisis.” - NPR
“Russia’s parliament urges Putin to recognize separatist republics in Ukraine.” - Politico
“Putin Won’t Ever Let Ukraine Be Finland.” - Foreign Policy
“Dispatch from Kyiv: Fear, Frustration, and Fatalism.” - The Bulwark
“Ukraine's oligarchs fleeing the country.” - Intellinews
And Finally:
MS Estonia: Two Swedish documentary makers face new trial for exploring the 1994 wreck
(Euronews)
“An appeals court ruled on Tuesday that two men should be tried again for disturbing the site of the shipwreck. … Director Henrik Evertsson and analyst Linus Andersson had filmed the shipwreck using a remote-controlled submarine in September 2019. … The two men were originally acquitted of violating Swedish law, as they had used a foreign German-flagged vessel to film the site. But an appeal's court ruled on Tuesday that the Estonia Act should apply …”
__________
_______
____
