Kremli tänane läbirääkimistaktika meenutab kunagise Nõukogude Liidu välisministri Andrei Gromõko kolme reeglit:
1) nõudke maksimumi ja ärge häbenege küsida. Nõudke seda, mis pole kunagi teile kuulunud.
2) esitage ultimaatumeid. Ärge hoidke kokku ähvardustega. Läänes leidub alati neid, kes on valmis läbi rääkima.
3) läbirääkimistel ärge taganege ühtki kriipsu. Nemad ise pakuvad teile osa sellest, mida küsisite. Ärge leppige sellega, vaid nõudke rohkemat. Nad on nõus ka sellega. Ja lõpuks olete saanud kolmandiku või koguni poole sellest, mida teil varem ei olnudki.”
- Peaminister Kaja Kallas poliitiline avaldus julgeoleku olukorrast 19.01.2022
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“Russian State Duma Vice-Speaker Petr Tolstoy said that Russia should restore the borders of the Russian Empire and said that the Baltic states and Finland would voluntarily “crawl back” to Russia within the next ten years. Tolstoy did not specify how the Kremlin would achieve this conquest.” - from an ISW Report, 13. Jan. 2022,
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“… it just takes my breath away to watch how Putin pulls this on the American establishment again and again: threaten to escalate—negotiate—pull back; threaten to escalate—negotiate—pull back. …”
- Alexei Navalny | Interview with Time
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Friday 21. January
President Karis: NATO ei naase 1997. a.
(ERR)
"Venemaa nõudmine "keerake ajalugu tagasi 1997. aastasse või muidu..." on poliitiline rünnak NATO vastu. Ja sellele rünnakule seisame me kindlalt vastu. … Karis viitas, et pärast 1997. aastat on NATO-ga liitunud Albaania, Bulgaaria, Eesti, Horvaatia, Leedu, Läti, Montenegro, Poola, Põhja-Makedoonia, Rumeenia, Slovakkia, Sloveenia, Tšehhi, Ungari ehk peaaegu pool NATO nüüdsest 30 liitlastest.”
—
"Ajaloo tagasikeeramine 1997. aastasse ehk NATO ittalaienemise eelsesse aega on mõeldamatu ja seda ei juhtu …”
https://www.err.ee/1608474170/karis-nato-ei-naase-1997-aastasse
“Estonia is planning to allocate an extra €380 million for defense.” - Postimees
Kallas välismeediale Lavrovi avaldusest: see on Venemaa propaganda
(Postimees)
“Kallase sõnul on vaja meeles pidada, et justnimelt Venemaa on riik, kes on loonud praeguse pingelise julgeolekuolukorra ning asunud ka seda lahendama.”
https://www.postimees.ee/7435864/kallas-valismeediale-lavrovi-avaldusest-see-on-venemaa-propaganda
“Lavrov: USA vastab Moskva nõudmistele järgmisel nädalal kirjalikult.” - Postimees
“Blinken, Lavrov exchange 'frank' views on Ukraine crisis.” - Deutsche Welle
Ukraina-vastased küberründed ja järeldused Eesti jaoks
(ERR)
“Riigivastased koordineeritud küberründed hübriidkonflikti osana oli miski, mida Eesti koges 2007. aastal. Tol ajal oli see uudne, aga nüüdseks on küberründed sõjaliste konfliktide tavapärases arsenalis, need muutuvad tehniliselt keerukamaks ja nende laiem kõrvalmõju tõenäolisemaks. … 13. jaanuari hilisõhtul tabas Ukraina valitsuse veebilehti ulatuslik küberrünnak.”
https://www.err.ee/1608474011/kaska-ja-hendre-ukraina-vastased-kuberrunded-ja-jareldused-eesti-jaoks
Annad Putinile sõrme, võtab terve käe
(Eesti Päevaleht Juhtkiri)
“Mullu 20. jaanuaril USA presidendiks saanud Joe Bidenist oodati võrreldes tülitekitava ja ettearvamatu Donald Trumpiga palju. Aga Biden pole imet teinud – meie siin Eestis näeme seda enim Venemaa kasvavast ülbusest Ukraina piiril ja NATO-le esitatud ultimaatumist.”
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“Kas Bideni äsjane jutt, et Venemaa „väike sissetung” ei pruugigi USA ja NATO vastukäiku pälvida, oli sõnavääratus, realistlik hinnang NATO võimalustele või mingi kokkuleppe välja lobisemine? Sellised avaldused Ukraina kindlustunnet ei suurenda, Balti riikide oma samuti mitte.”
https://epl.delfi.ee/artikkel/95693841/juhtkiri-annad-putinile-sorme-votab-terve-kae
UK mulls sending 'hundreds' more troops to the Baltics
(ERR | The Times)
“The UK’s plans to bolster its contribution to the alliance’s missions in the region emerged as Liz Truss issued a personal warning to Putin to “step back from Ukraine before he makes a massive strategic mistake.”
https://news.err.ee/1608473651/uk-mulls-sending-hundreds-more-troops-to-baltics
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“Chief of the General Staff visits troops in Estonia.” - British Army
“Britid otsivad võimalusi Eestisse sõdureid juurde saata.” - ERR
“Estonia orders more than 500 Israeli-designed Spike missiles.” - JNS
“Danish Jets Prepare To Return To Nato’s Air Mission In The Baltic Sea Region.” - NATO
Võim ja Julgeolek: Eesti kaitseväe varjatud ajalugu
(Postimees)
“Sõjalisest valmidusest saab avalikult kõnelda vaid täisminevikus.”
Traditsiooniline jalgsirännak pani kuperjanovlased proovile
(Eesti Kaitsevägi)
“Kuperjanovi jalaväepataljon sooritas reedel täies koosseisus pea 18 kilomeetrise traditsioonilise jalgsirännaku Võrumaal.”
—
„Kuperjanovi jalaväepataljon on kergjalaväepataljon, mis tähendab, et võitleme peamiselt jalgsi. Kuigi hästi valitud marsuut ja raske kandem pakkusid täna piisava väljakutse, siis talvine ilm ja mõistlik tempo võimaldasid pingutust ka nautida. Eriti hea meel on A-jalaväekompanii miinipildujarühma üle, kes lisaks nõutule võttis kaasa ka miini- ja raskekuulipildujad ning näitas üles sitkust ja suurepärast ühtsust,“ ütles Kuperjanovi jalaväepataljoni ülem kolonelleitnant Indrek Sarap.”
https://mil.ee/uudised/traditsiooniline-jalgsirannak-pani-kuperjanovlased-proovile/
Ministeerium loodab laskemoona ostu lepingud sõlmida lähikuudel
(ERR)
“Hoolimata sõjaliste tarnete võimalikust venimisest seoses nõudluse suurenemisega maailmaturul loodab kaitseministeerium laskemoona ostu lepingud sõlmida lähikuudel.”
https://www.err.ee/1608473090/ministeerium-loodab-laskemoona-ostu-lepingud-solmida-lahikuudel
Baltics were given approval to send US-made weapons to Ukraine
(Politico | ERR)
“… a sign of renewed urgency among Western allies over the threat of a multi-front invasion by Russian forces. The Biden administration will also begin the process of shipping $200 million worth anti-armor missiles, ammunition and other equipment to Ukraine in the coming days.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/01/19/us-allies-ukraine-weapons-russia-invasion-527375
—
https://news.err.ee/1608471797/baltics-given-approval-to-send-us-made-weapons-to-ukraine
“Balti ministrid: annetatud relvastus tuleb kiiresti Ukrainale toimetada.” - ERR
“Balti kaitseministrid: relvad tuleb kiiresti Ukrainasse toimetada.” - Postimees
Putin’s New Attack Route Can Be Belarus
by Anna Nemtsova, The Daily Beast
“Vladimir Putin’s new stranglehold on Belarus means Ukraine is now vulnerable to attack from two sides. … The southern border of Belarus is less than a three-hour drive from Kyiv, Ukraine’s economic and political capital. … The cooperation got even closer on Wednesday when Russian troops landed in Belarus to hold joint anti-Ukraine military exercises close to the southern border. Kyiv is now effectively surrounded by hostile forces.”
“War games also planned near borders of Nato members Poland and Lithuania.” - The Guardian
“Belarus To Hold Military Drills With Russia In February.” - RFERL
“Ukraine: how an armed conflict could play out.” - The Conversation
“Venemaa ja Valgevene korraldavad veebruaris ühisõppuse.” - ERR
“Venemaa saadab Valgevenesse kaks raketisüsteemide S-400 divisjoni.” - ERR
Kristi Raik: Bideni esinemine võis anda Venemaale lisajulgustust
(ERR)
"Ma arvan, et võimalus [Vene rünnakuks] oli niigi kõrge. Aga see [Bideni esinemine] kinnitas seda, et läänes on kõhklusi ja vaidlusi selle üle, kuidas Venemaad heidutada ja kuidas reageerida uuele rünnakule. Nii et osana laiemast pildist võis eilne Bideni esinemine anda Venemaale lisajulgustust.”
https://www.err.ee/1608472826/raik-bideni-esinemine-vois-anda-venemaale-lisajulgustust
“Prime Minister: Biden, Macron statements on Ukraine ‘worrying’.” - ERR
“Biden words may have encouraged further Russian aggression.” - ERR
“Kallas Bideni ja Macroni avaldustest: see on muret tekitav.” - ERR
“Stoltenberg: Bideni öeldu ei tähenda Venemaale rohelise tule näitamist.” - ERR
Thursday 20. January
Inside Estonia’s approach in fighting Russian disinformation
(PBS NewsHour - 1/15/2022)
“Russian disinformation is rife in countries formerly ruled from Moscow. Special Correspondent Simon Ostrovsky visited Estonia, which is trying a different approach.”
Or:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JUx-1iPKmc8
“How To Support A Globally Connected Counter-Disinformation Network.” - War on the Rocks
As Russia flexes its muscles in the Baltic, Sweden prepares for the worst
(Euronews)
“In farm outbuildings on Gotland Island, a Swedish rapid reaction force of 150 military personnel is settling in on the largest island in the Baltic Sea. Deployed hurriedly from northern Sweden, the troops and their equipment arrived on a C-17 transport plane and a ferry over the weekend in response to Russia’s naval sabre-rattling in the region and deployment of 100,000 troops on its border with Ukraine. …”
Sweden Re-Opens Defense Divisions in Västernorrland
(High North News)
“The Västernorrland Regiment is the fifth out of six military divisions to be re-established in order to strengthen the Swedish defense’s presence in all Sweden.”
—
“The re-establishing of the Västernorlanld Regiment with the Jämtland Marine Corps (I 21) is one out a series of extensive initiatives taken within the framework of Sweden’s most recent long-term plan for the Armed Forces, which was adopted in December 2020.”
https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/sweden-re-opens-defense-divisions-vasternorrland
“Russia Lacks the Ships, the Bases, the Personnel and the Need for a New Arctic Fleet.” - Paul Goble, Window on Eurasia
“Days of sightings of drones over key Swedish sites including nuclear plants.” - BBC
What does Putin want?
(BBC)
“Russia's president has long argued the US broke a guarantee it made in 1990 that Nato would not expand further east. "They simply deceived us!", he complained at last month's news conference. Interpretations differ over what exactly was promised to the then-Soviet leader, Mikhail Gorbachev. But it is clear that Mr Putin believes the guarantee was made.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60061300
“When Putin Loved NATO.” - Foreign Policy
“It’s Time To Treat Putin Like an Adversary, Not a Partner.” - Spiegel
Ukraine and the Danger of Human Miscalculation
(National Interest)
“Russian President Vladimir Putin’s threat to invade Ukraine and President Joe Biden’s threat to sanction Russia in response cast into high relief the danger of human miscalculation in causing a war neither side wants. Each side may miscalculate what the other may do, and each other’s options are asymmetrical to the other’s. That Putin has leaned so far forward makes it hard for him to back down without anything to show for his saber-rattling.”
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/ukraine-and-danger-human-miscalculation-199579
“Biden peab Venemaa sissetungi Ukrainasse tõenäoliseks.” - Postimees
“President clarifies comments from Wednesday on Ukraine-Russia.” - The Guardian
“Ukraine’s President Zelensky hits back at Biden comments.” - BBC
“Biden lays bare Nato divide over Russian aggression against Ukraine.” - The Guardian
“Herem: Venemaa võib ajutiselt osa Ukraina territooriumist hõivata.” - ERR
“Fear and defiance on Ukraine’s frontline: ‘We don’t like dictators here’.” - The Guardian
“Ukraine warns Russia has 'almost completed' build-up of forces near border.” - CNN
“US accuses Russia of conspiring to take over Ukraine government.” - The Guardian
“As the U.S. and Russia Talk Ukraine, Where’s Europe?” - Foreign Policy
Wednesday 19. January
Peaminister Kaja Kallase poliitiline avaldus julgeoleku olukorrast
(Vabariigi Valitsus)
“Venemaa on esitanud nõudmised NATO laienemise peatamiseks. Samuti on Venemaa esitanud nõudmised NATO laienemise tagasipööramiseks ja NATO kollektiivkaitse meie regioonist sisuliselt kaotada. Kuuleme nüüd sõnaselgelt seda, millele oleme ise pikka aega osundanud. Venemaa eesmärk on taastada poliitiline ja sõjaline mõjuvõim oma naabrite üle.”
“Kallas: We must not fall into the trap of Russia’s proposals.” - Vabariigi Valitsus
Millal puhkeb sõda? Vastab kaitseväe juhataja Martin Herem
(Postimees)
“Pinged Venemaa ja Ukraina vahel kasvavad ning üha enam räägitakse Eestist umbkaudu tuhande kilomeetri kaugusel puhkeva relvastatud konflikti võimalikkusest. Sõda Venemaa ja Ukraina vahel peab tõenäoliseks ka Eesti kaitseväe juhataja kindralleitnant Martin Herem.”
https://www.postimees.ee/7433739/millal-puhkeb-soda-vastab-kaitsevae-juhataja-herem
Riigikaitse saab erakorraliselt 380 miljonit eurot
(Postimees)
“Eesti tõstab lähiaastatel erakorraliselt, 380 miljoni euro jagu, kulutusi laiale riigikaitsele, et suuta tegutseda kiiremalt ja tõhusamalt nii sõjaliste kui ka hübriidohtude vastu, kinnitas täna riigikogu ees poliitilise avalduse teinud peaminister Kaja Kallas.”
https://www.postimees.ee/7433821/riigikaitse-saab-erakorraliselt-380-miljonit-eurot
“Peaminister Kallas: plaanime erakorraliselt lähiaastatel eraldada 380 miljonit eurot lisaraha Eesti julgeoleku tugevdamiseks.” - Eesti Valitsus
Mihkelson ärgitab kaitsekulutusi tõstma 2,5 protsendile
(Postimees)
“Mihkelson cited Lithuania as a good example, whose defense spending will rise to 2.5 percent by 2030. "I think that now that Estonia is reviewing the basics of security policy, it is the right time to create a political consensus," Mihkelson encouraged, adding that the development of Baltic air defense requires more attention.”
https://www.postimees.ee/7434023/mihkelson-argitab-kaitsekulutusi-tostma-2-5-protsendile
“Mihkelson ärgitab kaitsekulutusi tõstma 2,5 protsendile.” - Postimees
Estonia could get a nuclear power plant
(Postimees | ERR)
“… Prime Minister Kaja Kallas (Reform) and Minister of Economic Affairs and Infrastructure Taavi Aas (Center) agree but remain cautious when talking about nuclear power.”
https://news.postimees.ee/7433537/estonia-could-get-a-nuclear-power-plant
—
https://news.err.ee/1608470909/estonia-could-get-a-nuclear-power-plant-says-prime-minister
Estonia aims to stabilise electricity prices
(Euractiv)
“The government discussed the situation on the electricity market and identified problems and tasks to address them on 13 January, Kallas said. These include accelerating the analysis of the need for a nuclear power plant in Estonia and quickly solving the problems surrounding the connection of renewable energy capacity to the grid. To obtain cheaper electricity in Estonia from the Nordic countries, a third connection between Estonia and Finland, the Estlink 3 underwater pipeline, is planned to be established by 2030.”
https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/short_news/estonia-aims-to-stabilise-electricity-prices/
Putin Making Impossible Demands to Set Stage for War
By Paul Goble, Window on Eurasia
“Putin’s demands on the West are ones he knows the West will not agree to, thus giving him in his eyes justification for military action against Ukraine at a time when the West is weak, Ukraine is growing in strength, and his own generals don’t want to be called back a second time in a year, Konstantin von Eggert says.”
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2022/01/putin-making-impossible-demands-to-set.html
It Took Red Army ‘Almost a Decade’ to Subdue Western Ukraine after 1945
(Window on Eurasia)
“The director of the Center for Ukrainian Research at the Institute of Europe at the Russian Academy of Sciences, Viktor Mironenko, argues that unfortunately Kremlin policy now is being formulated by people who don’t remember the past and are operating on illusions about the strength of Russian arms and the weakness of Ukraine.”
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2022/01/it-took-red-army-almost-decade-to.html
NATO Insiders Fear Attack on Ukraine via Multiple Fronts
(Spiegel)
“… fears are now circulating within NATO that Russian forces could use their recently increased presence in the Mediterranean, the North Atlantic and the Arctic to strike on a broad front – even targeting NATO member states. The sources said that massive disinformation campaigns and cyberattacks are also to be expected.”
Tuesday 18. January
Putin is 'looking at a legacy' and wants to control 'the Russian-speaking parts of the Baltic and the Balkans'
(GB News)
“Tobias Ellwood, chair of the Commons Defence Committee, has told GB News that Vladimir Putin may invade 'Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia' if the West don't stop Russia taking Ukraine.”
“Opinion: Putin to Ukraine - ‘Marry Me or I’ll Kill You’.” - New York Times
West Must Avoid Russian ‘Trap’ in Talks, Estonian Premier Says
(Bloomberg)
“Russia’s negotiating tactics amount to “blackmail,” said Kaja Kallas, the Estonian premier, using some of the most hawkish language of an EU member state leader.”
Cold Response 2022: 35,000 soldiers from 26 countries on military exercise in Northern Norway beginning in March
(High North News)
“Cold Response is a Norwegian-led winter exercise held every two years with NATO allies and partner countries. This year's large-scale edition is added to March and early April. Confirmed participants are 23 NATO countries - out of a total of 30 members in the alliance - as well as Finland and Sweden as partner countries. In addition, large parts of the Norwegian total defense will be in swing in the coming months. In the north, the exercise will take place from Bodø to Porsangermoen - primarily between Nordkjosbotn and Narvik, both along the E6 and the coast.”
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“This will be the largest exercise under Norwegian leadership conducted in Norway since the 1980s”, says Spokesperson Preben Aursand at the Norwegian Joint Operation Headquarters.”
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