“Russia would like to see the Baltic Sea as its own, without NATO forces operating here.”
-Tony Lawrence, International Centre for Defense and Security,
during in interview with the Washington Examiner, 10. June 2020
“U.S. Department of Defense Statement, 29. June 2020.”
The US Troop Withdrawal: Politics Trumps Strategy
By Tony Lawrence, ICDS
“The Pentagon has released some details of its plan to withdraw forces from Germany. The headline figure is now 11,900 troops (coyly described by the Pentagon as “more than 11,000”) compared to the total of roughly 9,500 discussed when the plan was first announced in June. Of these, around 5,600 will be redeployed in Europe, mostly to Belgium and Italy, and around 6,400 returned to the US.”
—
“Both former Supreme Allied Commander Europe James Stavridis and former Commanding General US Army Europe Ben Hodges, for example, have characterised the plan as a gift to the Kremlin. Closer to home, Estonia’s Defence Minister Jüri Luik stated that “the US intention to reduce its permanent presence in Europe is not a positive development”. The plan was, unsurprisingly, welcomed by Russia. …”
https://icds.ee/us-troop-withdrawal-politics-trumps-strategy/
U.S. to have permanent troop presence in Poland as defence pact agreed
(Reuters)
“The United States will establish a permanent military presence in Poland as it deploys around 1,000 additional U.S. troops there, Poland’s Defence Ministry said on Friday.”
USA toob Saksamaalt ära ligi 12,000 sõdurit
(Postimees)
“USA viib Saksamaalt välja 11,900 sõdurit, kellest umbes 6,400 naasevad koju, ligi 5,600 aga saadetakse teistesse Euroopa NATO riikidesse.”
- “US to withdraw nearly 12,000 troops from Germany in move that will cost billions and take years.” - CNN
__________
Friday 31. July
__________
How Putin is Rehabilitating the Nazi-Soviet Pact
By Una Bergmane, FPRI
“Putin’s National Interest article comes in the ever-changing context of Russian and Soviet narratives about the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. But what is the impetus for Putin’s changing position? And what are the consequences of these claims for the Baltic states specifically? … Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia reacted to the Russian social media campaign by issuing a joint statement calling for a collective European effort to counter “disinformation campaigns and attempts to manipulate historical facts.” Finland was unsurprisingly silent: Having maintained its independence and sovereignty during the dark years of the Cold War, Helsinki tends to distance itself from the history debates between Moscow and the former Soviet bloc countries.”
https://www.fpri.org/article/2020/07/putin-rehab-nazi-soviet-pact/
Jaak Allik: piiritarast üle vaadates
(Postimees - paywall)
“Mõni aasta enne oma surma ennustas Vabadussõja- aegse Vene Loodearmee ülemjuhataja Nikolai Judenitš, et sõltumata sellest, kes on Venemaal võimul, ühendab Venemaa tulevikus Läänemere aastat ja nii läkski. Eesti rahva teadvusse jättis see
sügava trauma. Kuigi maailm on sajandiga tehnoloogiliselt totaalselt muutunud ja geopoliitilised jõujooned teisenenud, põhineb Eesti kaitse ja välispoliitika endiselt Judenitši sõnastatud ohul, kusjuures eeldatakse, et see oht realiseerub endisel.”
Jaak Aab tõmbas Vesterbacka tunneliplaanile kriipsu peale
(Ärileht)
“Minister viitas julgeolekuohule ja "ebaselgele" rahastusele.”
- “Estonia “set to reject” Chinese-backed plan to build tunnel to Helsinki.” - Global Construction Review
Pane Tähele: Nendest riikidest Eestisse saabujatel tuleb jääda karantiini
(Postimees)
“Eestisse saabudes peavad tulevast nädalast oma liikumisvabadust piirama Austraaliast, Kanadast ja Marokost reisijad. Liikumisvabaduse piirang ei kehti Eestisse saabudes reisijatele Gruusiast, Jaapanist, Lõuna-Koreast, Rwandast, Taist, Tuneesiast, Uruguayst, Uus-Meremaalt.”
https://www.postimees.ee/7030094/nendest-riikidest-eestisse-saabujatel-tuleb-jaada-karantiini
America Feels Like a Post-Soviet State
By Masha Gessen, The New Yorker
“I’ve been plagued by a nauseating sense of recognition lately. Story after story of the pandemic response in the United States reminds me of the country that I spent most of my professional life writing about: the Soviet Union and also the Russian state that was born after its collapse but which couldn’t shake many of its traits. …”
__________
Belarus
__________
Tens of Thousands Rally in Belarus Despite Pre-Election Crackdown
(Moscow Times)
“The rally came as Belarus authorities accused top members of the opposition of collaborating with Russian fighters to destabilize the ex-Soviet country. …”
- “Was Belarus’ Arrest of Russian Wagner Soldiers Staged in a Ploy to Postpone Elections?” - Daily Beast
- “What Were Russian Mercenaries Doing in Belarus?” - Foreign Policy
- “Lukashenko jailed election rivals and mocked women as unfit to lead.” - Washington Post
The Rise of Belarusian Oligarchs
By Tadeusz Giczan, CEPA
“A cash-strapped Lukashenka has been forced to look for new sources of revenue to keep the regime afloat.”
https://www.cepa.org/the-rise-of-belarusian-oligarchs
The eurozone’s gross domestic product fell 40.3% annually in three months
(Wall Street Journal | New York Times)
“… exceeding the U.S. economy’s 32.9% contraction. … However, recent statistics suggest Europe is having a “much bigger snapback and there are some indicators that it may be getting ahead [of the U.S.].”
—
“Russian Ruble Tumbles Amid Bleak Economic Data.” - Moscow Times
__________
Thursday 30. July
__________
Mida Roosevelt Stalinile Baltimaade kohta tegelikult ütles?
Rein Ruutsoo, Eesti Päevaleht
“Venemaa suursaatkonna avaldatud „stenogrammi” tõepärasus on kaheldav.”
PDF:
Estonian Government recommends avoiding international travel
(ERR)
“Urmas Reinsalu said: "We are facing the fact that the virus is at a growth stage worldwide, and in many European countries. It is important to repeat the warning on any kind of travel, which is still valid in Estonia. The virus is at its growth stage internationally; based on the amount of new cases, there is a higher probability of getting infected [than before]."
https://news.err.ee/1118977/government-recommends-avoiding-international-travel
- “Baltic virus numbers: Largest spread in Lithuania, numbers increase slower in Estonia, Latvia.” - BNN
- “EU Borders Closed to Russians Until Mid-August.” - Moscow Times
Metsakalmistul mälestati president Pätsi küüditamist
(Pealinn)
“30. juulil 2020 möödus 80 aastat päevast, mil Nõukogude okupatsioonivõim viis Eesti Vabariigi esimese valitsusjuhi ja esimese presidendi Konstantin Pätsi koos pereliikmetega Kloostrimetsa kodutalust Venemaale. …”
http://www.pealinn.ee/tagid/koik/fotod-metsakalmistul-malestati-president-patsi-kuuditamist-n256296
__________
Wednesday 29. July
__________
Võrumaal algasid piiriehitustööd
(Pealinn)
“… mille käigus ehitatakse välja piiritaristu 23,5 kilomeetrisele piirilõigule Eesti-Läti-Venemaa kolmikpunktist Luhamaa piiripunktini.”
http://www.pealinn.ee/tagid/koik/vorumaal-algasid-piiriehitustood-n256199
“Border construction works begin in SE Estonia.” - Baltic Times
Ukraine’s treatment of Soviet monuments
(Politico-Europe)
“In Ukraine, statues of communist leaders had a clear political purpose: They were reminders of a shared Soviet history, which Russia continued to use to wield influence and preserve its dominance over its former satellite state well after independence. When Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula in 2014 and started to fuel violent pro-Russian uprisings in eastern Ukraine, these symbols of Russian power became stark reminders of Ukraine’s ongoing struggle for sovereignty.”
—
“In 2015, the Ukrainian government adopted legislation that formally equated the Soviet regime with Germany’s wartime Nazi regime, and ordered all symbols of both ideologies to be removed from streets across the country. According to the Ukrainian National Remembrance Institute, some 2,400 communist monuments were taken down between 2015 and 2020. …”
https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-soviet-monuments-what-the-west-can-learn/
Why The EU Has Changed Forever
(Le Monde via Worldcrunch)
“Indeed, the European Union is now a state. Not a so-called superstate replacing the 27 member states that make it up, but a state that includes them. We could say that the EU is now 28 states: the 27 separately plus the 27 together as one. Finally, the European state represents Alexandre Dumas' famous saying from The Three Musketeers: "One for all, all for one." The novelty that allows us to recognize Europe as a state comes from the fact that the EU will issue treasury bonds to finance a brand new part of its budget, which it calls the "recovery plan," amounting to 750 billion euros.”
https://worldcrunch.com/world-affairs/why-the-european-union-has-changed-forever
“The European Union after the lockdown.” - Warsaw Institute
__________
Monday 27. July
__________
Viirus nakatab kiiremini, kui Eesti suudab liikumispiiranguid kehtestada
(Õhtuleht - paywall)
“Kui varasematel nädalatel sai rääkida üksnes sellest, kuidas ühes või teises Euroopa riigis tõstis koroonaviirus uuesti pead, siis nüüd saab rääkida tõusutrendist Euroopas tervikuna. Muutused võivad olla nii kiired, et Eesti kaitseks mõeldud liikumispiirangud jäävad viirusest kaugele maha.”
- “Sweden split on coronavirus immunity.” - Politico
Estonia is “One of six affordable spots around the globe to work from home”
(New York Post)
“Estonia is launching a “Digital Nomad Visa” which “allows remote workers to live in Estonia and legally work for their employer or their own company registered abroad.”
—
[The article mentions a one-bedroom modern apartment for $250,000 in Tallinn and a 3 bedroom rental in Vana-Tallinn for$2,000 per month.]
https://nypost.com/2020/07/25/6-gorgeous-affordable-spots-around-the-globe-to-work-from-home/
- “Ärimees müüb Võru linnas eksklusiivset villat.” - Postimees
- “Võrumaa metsade vahel müüakse mõnusat suvilat.” - Kodustill
Maritime Security Issues in the Baltic Sea Region
(FPRI)
“NATO as a whole is unprepared for Russian aggression at sea. Given the economic and strategic importance of the Baltic Sea itself to the Baltic states and NATO, this situation must be remedied. By strategizing procurements, crisis response, and coastal defense, the long-standing condition of “sea blindness” can be reversed.”
https://www.fpri.org/article/2020/07/maritime-security-issues-in-the-baltic-sea-region/
“NATO approves Polish / Baltic States’ defense plan.” - Lithuanian Tribune
Ameeriklane leidis kodukraavist 70 aastat vana eestikeelse kirja
(Eesti Ekspress)
“USA-s Charlestoni linnas tänavalt leiti 70 aastat tagasi kirjutatud eestikeelne kiri.”
Or
__________
Russia
__________
Tens of thousands of Russians are protesting in the streets
(Christian Science Monitor)
“Some 4,000 miles from Moscow, protesters in Khabarovsk see the charges against their governor as political and demand that he stand trial at home.”
- “The Specters of Past Protests Haunt the Khabarovsk Uprising — and the Kremlin.” - Brian Whitmore, CEPA
Former Kremlin insider recounts Putin’s moves to retain power
(Reuters)
“Since at least 2006, former Kremlin adviser Sergei Pugachev told Reuters, Putin has been grappling with the question of succession. Once known as the Kremlin’s banker, Pugachev played a key role in Putin’s rise 20 years ago. His business interests spanned military shipyards, coal and construction, and he sat as a senator in parliament’s upper chamber. Today he is in deep conflict with his former allies, accused by Russian authorities of bankrupting the bank he co-founded, a charge Pugachev denies. He fled to Britain and then France, where he currently lives, after London’s High Court in 2014 ordered his assets frozen at Russia’s request.”
- “July Brings Sweeping Crackdown in Russia.” - The Warsaw Institute
Russia’s Parade for Troubled Naval Fleet
By: Pavel K. Baev, Jamestown Org.
“Last Sunday (July 26), Russia’s Navy Day, 46 combat ships led by the newly built frigate Admiral Kasatonov produced a picture-perfect presentation on the Neva River; and the nuclear submarine Orel, on a special visit from the Northern Fleet, was the star of the parade at the nearby Kronstadt naval base.”
—
“The contemporary Military-Maritime Fleet (Voyenno-Morskoy Flot—VMF) is not in good shape, and most of its major surface combatants, including its only aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov, are in need of an overhaul. Meanwhile, Russia’s main dry dock sits at the bottom of the Barents Sea after an accident in October 2018, and a new one will not be built anytime soon …”
https://jamestown.org/program/russia-stages-parade-for-troubled-naval-fleet/
“Russia's Navy Day parades in pictures.” - BBC
KGB Man to the End
By Anne Applebaum, The Atlantic
“The origins of Putin’s worldview—and the rise of Russia’s new ruling class.”
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/09/catherine-belton-putins-people/614212/
Stalin’s Man at the New York Times
(Wall Street Journal)
Discussion of the film ‘Mr. Jones’, a “film that explores the monstrous Soviet horror and the cover-up by a New York Times Pulitzer winner of the Holodomor, the famine that befell Ukraine in the years 1932-33.”
https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/stalins-man-at-the-new-york-times-11595867217
How Muscle Works in Moscow
(Foreign Policy - 14. June)
“Understanding “krysha,” the word that explains why Russian life is all about having the right kind of protection.”
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/06/14/krysha-putin-russia-how-muscle-works-in-moscow/
Siberia is in flames: Climate change hits home for Russia
(Christian Science Monitor)
“Siberia may be best known for being cold. But this summer, large parts of it are in flames – a state of affairs that Russian scientists say is a byproduct of climate change, and is likely to end up accelerating the process.”
The Crimean Drought
By Dr. Victor Madeira, CEPA
“Russia is dangling a return of Donbas territory to Ukraine under special conditions in return for water for Crimea, two-thirds of which is suffering from severe drought. Russia already spends £4 billion a year on both territories and the drought is adding to sanctions pressure.”
—
“Neither Crimea nor Russia can afford a third-straight dry winter. Crimea’s immediate priority is easing water shortages until the end of August and peak tourist season, though sanctions and now COVID-19 have left businesses there on life support. Since 2014, Crimean exports have plunged 28-fold, imports 35-fold and tourism has halved.”
—
“With Putin’s power reconfirmed by the ‘referendum,’ he cannot hide as easily from coronavirus and economic recession: as both worsen, so will his ratings. Domestic unrest will grow so Putin will look to deflect attention by targeting neighboring countries. Belarus, Ukraine, and Moldova have upcoming elections that could tempt Russian action under cover of … (September’s Kavkaz [Caucasus]–2020 military exercise).”
__________
_______
____
