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23 February, 2018


✔︎ The Republic of Estonia will celebrate its 100th anniversary on Saturday, February 24, 2018
- Stenbocki maja
Autor/allikas: Aron Urb/EV100, Kaupo Kalda/EV100




_____________

Friday 23. 
February
_____________


✔︎ Ajalehed jutustavad: kaks kuud, mil sündis Eesti
(ERR)



✔︎ 1918: Three Pivotal Days
(ERR)

Part 1: 
'Estonian independence proclaimed in Pärnu Feb. 23'

Part 2: 
'Salvation Committee begins issuing orders Feb 24'

Part 3: 
'First blood spilled for sovereign Estonia Feb 25'




✔︎ The United Kingdom and Estonia’s achievement of independence
by Patrik Maldre
(Estonian World)
“… In the country’s period of need, new allies reached its shores – on 12 December 1918, a British fleet, led by Rear-Admiral Edwyn Alexander-Sinclair, arrived in Tallinn bringing guns, food, fuel and, perhaps most importantly, hope. It was in those momentous days that the modern Estonia-UK alliance was born."



- Arvamus: Vaenlane suruks meid tulega maha. Venemaa rünnaku võimalik stsenaarium
(Eesti Päevaleht)
"Ohuhinnang on põhjalikult muutunud. Sestap ei saa ka Eesti iseseisva kaitsevõime minimaalne operatiivajadus tulla kusagilt mujalt kui potentsiaalsest vaenlasest, tema jõududest ja vahenditest, mida võidakse meie vastu kasutada."

- USA tõigi võimsad õhutõrjeraketid Patriot Tallinna
(Delfi)

- Patriot air defense missile system presented in Tallinn
(ERR)




_____________

Eesti 100. sünnipäev
_____________


- Graafik: vabariigi aastapäeva paraadil osaleb üle 1100 mundrikandja
(Postimees)


- Kaitsevägi valmistub Vabaduse väljakul paraadi peaprooviks
(DElfi)


- Estonian communities around the world celebrate Estonia’s centennial
(Estonian World)


- Eesti 100. aastapäevaks valmis puhtast hõbedast postmark
(Pealinn)


- Who is our best-loved president?
(Postimees)


- 26 head Eesti asja
(Eesti Ekspress)


- Estonia's most important monuments decorated with hats and scarves
(ERR)


- Government grants Estonian citizenship to 100 people
(ERR)


- Toronto’s CN Tower to be lit up blue, black and white
(CN Tower)


- Vilnius to be lit up in Estonia's national colors
(ERR)


- Yle's broadcast tower to be illuminated with Estonia's flag colours
(Yle)




_____________

Thursday 22. 
February
_____________


✔︎ The Loss of the Baltics’ Independence: Options and Choices in 1939–40
by Magnus Ilmjärv
(Diplomaatia)
"Subduing the Baltic States was the result of a long process, not just the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact … Let us, however, explore the Baltic states’ foreign-, defence- and internal-policy options and choices in a situation where the Soviet Union and Germany had specified their spheres of interest in August and September 1939.”
Eesti keeles:



- Report: Assessing the Conventional Force Imbalance in Europe
The Russian Threat to NATO in the Baltics
(RAND)
"This report outlines how NATO and Russian force levels and capabilities have evolved in the post–Cold War era and what recent trends imply for the balance of capabilities in the NATO member states that border Russia in the Baltic Sea region."

- In Estonia, US Fighter Pilots Train for Next War With ‘One Hand Tied Behind Their Backs’
(Daily Signal)



- Narva jõe äärse patrullraja ehitamine läheb oodatust keerukamaks
(ERR)
"Idapiiri väljaehitamise raames soovib politsei- ja piirivalveamet (PPA) saada paremat ligipääsu ka Narva jõele."



- Kaljulaid kutsus eelmised riigipead lõunasöögile
(Postimees | Õhtuleht)
Toomas Hendrik Ilves, Kersti Kaljulaid, Lennart Meri






_____________

Munich Security Conference
_____________


- Three takeaways from the Munich Security Conference 2018
(CEPA)
“First, consensus on Russia is still solid. … The second salient point was that the transatlantic relationship is strained but intact. … The third was that Franco-German cooperation is now the big motor of European security. …"

- The U.S. Lacked Bravery and Leadership
(Foreign Policy)
"If you came to Munich looking for a call to action, you left empty-handed.”

- Witnessing the Collapse of the Global Elite
(The Atlantic)
“… the nicely tailored generation represented in Munich this year seemed baffled by the re-entry into history of today’s authoritarians and fanatics. One wonders whether the attendees possess the steel of the earlier generation that took part in World War II, and in the subsequent struggle with Communism. ...”
--
"Meanwhile, Russian oligarchs happily hobnobbed with Europeans looking to do business on the side.”

- EU: Storm clouds over Munich
(Politico-Europe)
“To the Brink -Lennart Meri and Back?” was the vaguely hopeful motto of this year’s Munich Security Conference, the pre-eminent annual gathering of defense and security policymakers. “Gloom and Doom” would have been a more apt choice."





_____________

Latvia Bank Crisis
_____________


- Latvia scrambles to limit bank scandal fallout
(Deutsche Welle)
"Latvian bank is accused of funneling billions to North Korea while the country's top bank official is alleged to have taken bribes."

- Latvian financial supervisor sees no 'panic' over ABLV bank
(Reuters)

- Latvia Signals Russia May Be Interfering in Banking Crisis
(Bloomberg | others)
"The banking crisis engulfing the tiny nation of Latvia has turned into a potential diplomatic incident, with a statement from Riga that points the finger at Moscow."

- Kremlin Covertly Promoting Regime Change in Latvia, Riga Security Official Warns
By Paul Goble
(Jamestown)
"Moscow is making use of familiar tactics it has employed elsewhere to try to tip the outcome against the pro-Western parties that have dominated Latvian politics for the last 25 years. The Russian government is backing pro-Moscow political factions who, at a minimum, will drop Riga’s efforts to linguistically integrate the ethnic-Russian minority into the Latvian nation and work to improve relations between Latvia and the Russian Federation."





_____________

Wednesday 21. 
February
_____________


- 100 aastat Eesti majandust
(Diplomaatia)
"Eesti on jõudnud maailma jõukaimate riikide hulka, kuid tee sinna pole olnud lihtne."

- 100 Years of the Estonian Economy




- Estonia: A world leader in digital technology
(Business Times - Singapore)
"The majority of Estonia's workforce is multilingual and provides high value-add. The country recently ranked first in Europe for entrepreneurial employee activity and competitiveness. … Owing to a two-decade commitment to IT, Estonia is the world's most advanced digital society and a recognised leader in digital skills, infrastructure and legislation."

- Estonia Will Set Up Data Embassy in Luxembourg
(Transitions)



- Finland women claim bronze with win over Russians
(Reuters)
"Finland beat the Olympic Athletes from Russia 3-2 on Wednesday to claim the bronze medal in women’s Olympic ice hockey."



- Deep Fakes: A Crisis for National Security, Democracy and Privacy?
(Lawfare)
"Fueled by artificial intelligence, digital impersonation is on the rise. Machine-learning algorithms (often neural networks) combined with facial-mapping software enable the cheap and easy fabrication of content that hijacks one’s identity—voice, face, body. Deep fake technology inserts individuals’ faces into videos without their permission. The result is “believable videos of people doing and saying things they never did.”
—
"Deep fakes raise the stakes for the 'fake news' phenomenon in dramatic fashion. … as fake videos become widespread, the public may have difficulty believing what their eyes (or ears) are telling them—even when the information is quite real." 

- Fabricated video: can we preserve our shared reality?
(Christian Science Monitor)



- Estonia trying to lure Latvia's doctors
(Latvian Broadcasting)
"We're not looking only at Latvia [for guest doctors]. Now doctors can work everywhere. We can't say we'd like to hire a gynecologist or radiologist from Latvia. But our hospital is ready to admit all doctors of these trades. Of course it all depends on the experience and the doctor itself," said hospital head Tarmo Bakler."



✔︎ Russia: A Political Renewal in the Russian Army
(Intersection)
"Political officers in the military had disappeared along with the Soviet Union. Now they are back again. The government’s aim is greater ideological control over the command structures of the nation’s armed forces, especially in light of any potential internal unrest.”




_____________

Tuesday 20. 
February
_____________


- Putin soovis Eestile 100. sünnipäevaks õnne 😱
(Delfi)
"Venemaa president V. V. Putin saatis Eesti presidendile Kersti Kaljulaidile õnnitluse rahvusliku pidupäeva, Eesti Vabariigi iseseisvuspäeva puhul ja soovis Eesti kõigile elanikele õnne, heaolu ja kõike kõige paremat,” öeldakse täna Venemaa saatkonna levitatud teates.”
—
[Putin wished the Estonian people prosperity, well-being, and the best of everything.]



- Bank of Estonia introduces 'Estonia 100' commemorative €2 coin
(ERR)



- An interview with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg
(Foreign Policy)
The Secretary-General reiterated that if Russia did in the Baltics what it did in Ukraine
it will trigger a response from the whole alliance, "because NATO is there to defend and protect all allies against any threat."



- Mattis: "NATO Remains our Number-One Alliance"
(National Interest)
“… at the end of the day, despite the early rhetoric from the Trump Administration, the NATO alliance is more or less conducting business as usual."







_____________

Monday 19. 
February
_____________


- Valitsus soovib Eesti idapiiri täielikku väljaehitamist
(Lõuna Leht)
"Eesti piir peab olema kaitstud, hoitud ja valvatud, sõltumata esialgse kuluprognoosi vigadest. Julgeoleku tagamine on alati olnud riiklik prioriteet, kus ei saa teha järeleandmisi,“ ütles peaminister Jüri Ratas. „Eesti idapiiri ehitus peab igal juhul jätkuma."



- Eesti hakkab saatma ohu-SMSe, kaalub ühisvarjendeid
(Postimees)
"Rahva õigeaegseks teavitamiseks tuleks riigis luua SMS-hoiatuste süsteem, kaaluda sireene ning ehitada nullist üles võime elanikke suures mahus evakueerida, pakutakse värskelt valminud elanikkonnakaitse kontseptsioonis."

- Estonia to adopt warning SMS system and weighs shelters
(Postimees)



- Eesti e-riik Kremli meedia hambus
(Propastop)
"Eesti e-edust on Lääne ajakirjanduses palju juttu, kuid Kremli meedia on eelistanud sellest teemast rõhutatult vaikida. Küllap on ignoreerimise põhjuseks see, et Eesti kohta soovitakse ülal hoida vaese agraarmaa propagandakuvandit."
--
"Seegi kord ei jõudnud e-teema kaugele areneda. Jutujärje võttis üle eksperdina esinenud “valve-eestlane” Dmitri Linter. Ta demonstreeris stuudios oma Eesti ID-kaarti, viitas läinudaastasele turvaveale, nimetas selle põhjal kogu e-riiki kollapsiks. Tema sõnul olla Eesti digiriik üleüldse NATO küberkaitsekeskuse poolt algatatud projekt, mille eesmärgiks siinsete valimiste manipuleerimine “režiimile” ja USA-le soovitud suunas …"

- Estonian E-state in the clutches of the Kremlin media
(Propastop)
"According to Dmitri Linter, the Estonian digi-nation overall is a NATO cyber defence initiated project, whose purpose was to manipulate the local elections „regime“ towards the desired direction of following the USA."



- Estonia calls for EU to spend more for defense in border states
(Reuters | EU Observer)
"Estonian President Kersti Kaljulaid said her country was already spending 2.2 percent of economic output on the military and could not afford to spend more, although there were additional military needs. “Our little country cannot do more than it is already doing,” she told Reuters in an interview at the Munich Security Conference. “But more needs to be done in our region.”
--

- Baltics propose increasing member states’ contributions to EU budget after Brexit
(BNN)
"In the context of Brexit, talks about the next EU budget will be an especially major challenge – not just because the departure of the United Kingdom will leave a big hole in funding, but also because the referendum there has proven the necessity to increase efforts towards overcoming the most important challenges – migration, defence and free movement, especially for young people. All of these priorities will require additional finances.” - European Council President Donald Tusk 





_____________

Sunday 18. 
February
_____________


- Can Ukraine Win Its War on Corruption?
(Foreign Affairs)



- Kopterijuht joonistas lennukaardile juubelitervituse
(Postimees)

- Allied aircraft to fly over Estonia's centenary military parade
(ERR)



- Finland: Sámi women trying to keep their native Skolt language alive
(PRI)
"Tiina Sanila-Aikio isn’t your everyday president. The 34-year-old is the head of the Sámi people in Finland, the only indigenous population recognized in the European Union. She is also the creator of the world’s first Skolt-language rock albums. Skolt is a Sámi language spoken by just 300 people."
--
"Although the Sámi population numbers at least 75,000, their languages are dying out. The Sámi are made up of nine different tribes across Norway, Sweden, Russia and Finland and speak various dialects. The lack of Sámi language education means young Sámis are growing up not speaking their mother tongue."



- What Is Vladimir Putin Up To?
(Bloomberg)
“... there's a danger he may turn back to Eastern Europe.”




_____________

Russia
“Trust No One"
_____________


- Generation P: Stories of teenagers who have lived a lifetime under Putin
(The Moscow Times)



- Psyop: Russia celebrates Red Army's 100th anniversary in Ivangorod
- History Is the Future: Russia in Search of the Lost Empire
(Carnegie Moscow Center)
"Andrei Kolesnikov, in his review of books by Shaun Walker, Masha Gessen, and historian Serhii Plokhy, analyzes the authors’ view on the phenomenon of the influence of the past on the present and future of Russia.”



- How Putin meddles in Western democracies
(The Economist)
"And why the West’s response is inadequate."



- Who are the Russians indicted for interfering in the 2016 U.S. presidential election?
(Meduza)
"The most recognizable name on the list of Russians belongs to the catering magnate Evgeny Prigozhin, the general director of the “Internet Research Agency” (better known as “Russia’s troll factory”). The other 12 individuals singled out by the American grand jury are businessmen, translators, analysts, and office managers."



- Peterburi trollifarmis töötanud ajakirjanik räägib elust libauudiste tootjana
(Postimees)
"Peterburi kurikuulsa trollifarmi paljastamiseks anonüümse netikommeteerijana töötanud ajakirjanik Ljudmilla Savtšuk annab sissevaate, milline on igapäevatöö asutuses, mille eesmärgiks on toota libauudiseid ja kallutada tahtlikult avalikku arvamust."



- Kremlin Can and Will Exploit Mueller Report Against the US and Against Its Own People
(Window on Eurasia)
“… precisely by limiting its indictments to 13 individuals and three organizations who exploited the possibilities of the Internet to try to influence the American election provides Moscow with a real opportunity to turn the tables on those who are praising it." 



- An Indicted Russian Picks Up the Phone, and Mocks the Idea That Russia Meddled
(The New Yorker)
"According to an indictment, the Russian I.T. worker Mikhail Burchik helped spread propaganda under false identities on social media, in order to support Donald Trump and sow “political discord.”



- Putin has Fallen into the Trap of Believing His Own Propaganda
(Window on Eurasia)
"Many make the mistake of assuming that Vladimir Putin has a more sophisticated understanding of the world than the propaganda image his regime puts out, Pavel Kazarin says; but that is not the case. Instead, Putin has fallen into the trap of believing his own propaganda, making mistakes, and creating a self-fulfilling prophecy."



- Russia’s Clash With the West Is About Geography, Not Ideology
(Foreign Policy)
"In March 1947, the new U.S. secretary of state, George C. Marshall, embarked on six grueling weeks of negotiations in Moscow with his Soviet counterpart, Vyacheslav Molotov, over the future of occupied Germany. With neither side willing to accept the possibility of such a dangerous, strategically situated country becoming an ally of the other, the talks ended in stalemate. Yet Stalin still believed that Truman would ultimately be compelled to concede German unification on Soviet terms — massive reparations and a political structure favorable to the Communists — in order to fulfill his predecessor Franklin D. Roosevelt’s pledge to withdraw U.S. troops from Europe within two years after the war.”
--
"Marshall left Moscow convinced that cooperation with the Soviets was over. Germany, and much of Western Europe, was edging toward economic and social collapse, and the Leninist dictum “the worse, the better” appeared to be Stalin’s response. The time had come, Marshall decided, for unilateral U.S. action to secure democratic, capitalist government in the parts of Europe still outside Soviet control. In an iconic speech at Harvard University on June 5, 1947, he presented the outline of what would become a massive four-year U.S. aid scheme to support European reconstruction and integration: the Marshall Plan. … "



- Alexei Navalny: the man who would bring down Vladimir Putin
(The Times - Uk)

________
___
_






Posted by at

16 February, 2018


- Text of the Indictment
(U.S. Department of Justice)
["The indictment represents the first charges by the special counsel, Robert S. Mueller III, for meddling in the 2016 presidential election - the fundamental crime that he was assigned to investigate." - NY Times]


_____________

- Archive:

_____________

Friday 16. 
February
_____________


✔︎ Estonian centennial events leading up to Independence Day
(ERR)



✔︎ Russian troll farm, 13 suspects indicted for interference in U.S. election
(Various sources)
"Special Counsel Robert S. Mueller III, who is leading the probe into Russian interference in the U.S. election, did not attend the press briefing about the indictment, but the 37 pages of charges laid out an ambitious effort in late 2016 to push U.S. voters toward then-candidate Donald Trump and away from Democrat Hillary Clinton."
--
"Prosecutors said the group kept a list of real Americans who their employees had contacted using false personas and had asked to assist the effort. The list, which numbered over 100 people by late August 2016, included the U.S. citizen's contact information, a summary of each person's political views and the activities the Russians had asked them to undertake."
—
—
—



- USA vandekohus esitas 13 Vene kodanikule süüdistuse valimistesse sekkumises
(ERR)
"USA eriprokurör Robert Mueller tegi reedel teatavaks vandekohtu süüdistuse 13 Vene kodanikule ja kolmele firmale Ühendriikide presidendivalimistesse sekkumise eest.
Süüdistatavad osalesid alates 2014. aastast tänaseni vandenõus sekkuda USA poliitilisse ja valimisprotsessi, muuhulgas 2016. aasta presidendivalimistesse, teatas eriprokuröri büroo."




- Venemaa tähistab Punaarmee loomise 100. aastapäeva Ivangorodis
(ERR | Postimees)
"Venemaa tähistab 22. veebruaril Punaarmee loomise 100. aastapäeva Narva jõe ääres Ivangorodis tavapäratu sõjatehnika demonstratsiooniga. ... samuti Punaarmee loomisajast pärit vormiriietust ja relvastust. Linlastele demonstreeritakse tanke T-72, iseliikuvaid suurtükke ja soomustehnikat, samuti teevad käsivõitluse etteaste sõjakooli kursandid." 
--



- Russia to celebrate Red Army anniversary across the river from Narva
(ERR)
"On Feb. 22 Russia will celebrate the 100th anniversary of the creation of the Red Army in the town of Ivangorod …"




_____________

Helsinki-Tallinn Tunnel
_____________

- £14.2bn Finland to Estonia undersea mega-tunnel plans
(New Civil Engineer)
"The mega-project will run between the capitals Tallinn and Helsinki at a maximum depth of 250m for the most part through solid crystalline bedrock under the channel, emerging into Estonia through softer sediments of Ediacara and Blue Clay."
--
"To aid construction of the tunnel, FinEst Link said two, 400m x 300m artificial islands, located at places with water depths of 15m and 20m, would be built within the channel using the excavated material from the tunnel construction. These will provide ventilation, access and energy supplies to the tunnel below."

- Video Presentation
(YouTube)

- Report: Helsinki-Tallinn Transport Link Feasibility Study
(FinEst Link - PDF)
"The concept of an undersea railway tunnel, as studied in the FinEst Link project, con- nects Helsinki-Vantaa airport and Ülemiste airport in Tallinn where it connects to Rail Baltica and onwards to the Central and Eastern European railway network."

- Helsinki-Tallinn’s €20bn rail tunnel could be open by 2040
(Global Rail News)
"A number of consultancies have helped to produce the project’s feasibility study, which has just been published, but there’s one big problem: finance."

- Vision of subsea tunnel crossing Gulf of Finland triggers controversy
(Xinhua - China)

- Meren alle louhittavan rautatietunnelin hinta-arvio kaksinkertaistui 20 miljardiin euroon
(Helsingin Sanomat - 8. Feb.)






_____________

Thursday 15. 
February
_____________

- Arvamus: Russofoobid ja Estofoobid – kes nad sellised on?
Andrei Kuzitškin
(Postimees)
"Nii on ka omal ajal Eestis sündinud auhind «Aasta russofoob» vaikselt välja surnud, sest selle loojad ei ole kuidagi suutnud leida kedagi, kes süstemaatiliselt piiraks vene keele kasutamist."



- Commentary: In Munich, Clinging to Nostalgia
by Judy Dempsey
(Carnegie Europe)
"The West is ill-equipped to deal with the post-1945 order. … This is because digitization is changing everything - from politics and political representation to crucial questions concerning influence and stability, power, democratic governance, and transparency. … China is in the lead when it comes to recognizing how to channel and control digitization. It has erected firewalls and built sophisticated surveillance systems to spy on and control its own people.”
—
"The West, meanwhile, has been far too slow to use digitization to strengthen its democracies and to protect and project its values."



- NATO: German military short on tanks for NATO mission
(Deutsche Welle)
"The German military has secretly admitted that it can't fulfill its promises to NATO, according to documents leaked to Die Welt newspaper on Thursday. ...Specifically, the Bundeswehr's ninth tank brigade in Münster only has nine operational Leopard 2 tanks — even though it promised to have 44 ready for the VJTF — and only three of the promised 14 Marder armored infantry vehicles.”
--
"The paper also revealed the reason for this shortfall: a lack of spare parts and the high cost and time needed to maintain the vehicles. It added that it was also lacking night-vision equipment, automatic grenade launchers, winter clothing and body armor. The German air force is also struggling to cover its NATO duties …”
—
"Mark Galeotti, senior researcher and head of the Prague-based Center for European Security, said that "Germany's various military woes" were no secret to the rest of NATO. "For a long time, Germany has under-spent dramatically, and, let's be honest, wrapped itself in the mantle of its non-militarist foreign policy," he told DW, before adding that it had long been clear that the country hadn't been pulling its weight in the alliance."





_____________

Who Is Christopher Steele?
_____________

- From a 14. Feb. opinion piece entitled: "Christopher Steele is a hero"
(Washington Post)
"We know that he spent two decades as an officer in Britain’s Secret Intelligence Service (SIS, sometimes known as “MI6”), where he enjoyed the highest esteem from his own bosses as well as his counterparts in the U.S. intelligence community. We know that he spent long stints in Russia, where he built up his knowledge of the country and language and cultivated a wide-ranging network of contacts. At one point he ran the SIS Russia Desk."
--
"And we know that one of his SIS jobs included working in Afghanistan with British and U.S. special forces who were hunting down terrorists. This is a man who put his own life on the line for the sake of his country’s close alliance with the United States — a man who, in July and October 2016, correspondingly saw it as a matter of duty to approach old colleagues in the FBI when he realized he had stumbled onto a breathtaking threat to U.S. national security."
--
"Steele knows only too well what happens to people who get in Putin’s way. Yet even this awareness didn’t divert him from his path as he began to expose the Trump-Russia nexus. There was a reason why he and his family went into hiding when his name was first made public last year. … The risks are real.”
—
"This, too, suggests just how high the stakes are — so much higher than the world of Washington’s petty partisan crusades. This is the world of Kremlin intrigue, where mysterious deaths are a common tool of statecraft. This is the world that Christopher Steele had to plumb, at considerable personal risk to himself, to chart Trump’s illicit entanglements."




_____________

Wednesday 14. 
February
_____________


- Rail Baltic jälle sammu jagu lähemal
(Äripäev)
"Riigihalduse minister kehtestas Harjumaa, Raplamaa ja Pärnumaa maakonnaplaneeringud, mille eesmärk oli leida sobivaim asukoht kavandatava Rail Balticu raudtee trassi koridoridele."



- The Brussels to-do list
by Edward Lucas
(CEPA)
"Six tasks face NATO as it counts down to its summit in Brussels in July."



- E-Democracy in the European Union: Lessons from Estonia
(FPRI)
"In 2017, the Wired magazine called the country “the most advanced digital society in the world." … The European Union is following Estonia’s lead by now emphasizing e-solutions.”



- EU: How 'customs unions' work
(Politico-Europe)
"A customs union is a group of countries that have decided to make trade easier among them by dropping customs checks within the union and charging the same import duties on the group’s external borders. …"



- Report: Envisioning a Russia-NATO Conflict - Implications for Deterrence Stability
(European Leadership Network)
"The report reaches three basic conclusions:"
--
"Once a Russia-NATO conflict is underway, the prospects of controlling escalation and terminating a conflict according to any pre-planned scenario are disturbingly small."
--
"The probability of a conflict between Russia and NATO is currently low and it is avoidable."
--
"Yet, the risks of an inadvertent outbreak of conflict should be the main focus of attention, as it is the most likely path to a direct clash."




_____________

Tuesday 13. 
February
_____________


✔︎ Estonian Spies Understand the Russian Threat
by Leonid Bershidsky
(Bloomberg)
"Finally, a comprehensive look at Putin's ambitions backed by real expertise."



- Venemaa uus logo peidab propagandasõnumit
(Propastop)

- Russia’s new logo has a hidden propaganda message
(Propastop)



- Uus kaitseväe arengukava näeb ette rohkem ajateenijaid ja tehnikat
(ERR)
—



- Tartu mänguasjamuuseumis avatakse "Mängime sajaga!”
(ERR)


DIGAR lauamäng foto:



- NATO confirms half of allies expected to meet spending goal
(The Hill)
"Clearly NATO has reversed what was a downward trend, and so now we're well into the second year, I believe, where the nations are spending more on defense.”

- Briti major Eestis: Vene oht ei rõhu meid iga päev, näitame NATO lähenemist muutunud poliitilisele olukorrale
(Delfi)



- British Troops battle freezing conditions and allies in Estonia war games
(Various sources)
—
—

- Welsh soldiers suffer rugby woe in Estonian forest
(Daily Mail - Uk)
"Soldiers from the 1st Battalion The Royal Welsh, currently deployed in the Baltic state as part of Nato’s Enhanced Forward Presence (eFP), caught up on the game huddled around a laptop balanced on ration pack boxes. Amongst an array of Warrior armoured vehicles, support trucks and Challenger 2 tanks, and despite temperatures dropping to -6C, keen rugby supporters followed the twist and turns of the game."




_____________

Monday 12. 
February
_____________


- Eesti vahetas Vene salakuulaja Raivo Susi vastu
(ERR)
"Eesti Vabariik ja Venemaa Föderatsioon vahetasid laupäeval Eestis salakuulamise eest süüdi mõistetud Venemaa kodaniku Artjom Zintšenko Venemaal spionaažis süüdi mõistetud Eesti kodaniku Raivo Susi vastu. Vahetus toimus Koidula piiripunktis kella kümne ajal."

- Russia and Estonia exchange president-pardoned spies
(BNN | Euronews)
"Estonian aviation technology businessman Raivo Susi was swapped for Russian national Artyom Zinchenko at the Koidula border post in south-eastern Estonia."
—



- Soome osaleb tänavu 14 NATO õppusel
(ERR)



- Rio’s Christ the Redeemer statue to be lit up in Estonian national colours
(Estonian World)



- Latvia Focuses on Improving Societal Resilience and Increasing Size of National Guard
(Jamestown)
"In late January 2018, the Ministry of Defense of Latvia reported plans to expand the National Guard (Zemessardzes) force to 12,000 by 2027."







_____________

Russia
“Trust No One"
_____________


- The Trojan Horse of Russian Gas
(Foreign Policy)
"Energy resources aren’t just a commodity – they’re a vehicle for Russia’s political ambitions."



- Putin’s Trolls Are Targeting Trump’s GOP Critics - Especially John McCain
(Mother Jones)
[Senator McCain has been a very good friend to the Baltics and has visited Estonia many, many times.]
--
"While the vast majority of the attacks from the 600 Twitter accounts tracked in real time by the Hamilton 68 dashboard are aimed at Democrats, the trolls also turn their sights on Republicans who sometimes stand up to Trump. Repeat targets have included Tennessee Sen. Bob Corker, Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake, and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. National security adviser H.R. McMaster has also been a target. But no Republican has faced more persistent wrath from the Russian-linked accounts than McCain, says Bret Schafer, an analyst for the Alliance for Securing Democracy, a group of national-security experts behind the dashboard working to expose Kremlin meddling in US politics. And those attacks on McCain have intensified in recent weeks."

- Hamilton 68 Dashboard
"Activity from 600 monitored Twitter accounts linked to Russian influence operations."



- Palgasõdurid, kellest Kreml midagi ei tea, on ravil Moskvas ja Peterburis
(ERR | Bloomberg)
"Kaks palgasõduritega seotud inimest on meediale kinnitanud, et Deir Ezzori provintsi õhurünnakus haavata saanud palgasõdurid on toodud Moskvas ja Peterburis asuvatesse haiglatesse. Hukkunute arv jätkab kasvamist, sest mõnede meeste vigastused on rasked ja on olnud neid, kes on surnud ka juba Venemaal haiglas …"

"Even as the Kremlin denies any official link to them, scores of Russian mercenaries wounded in U.S. strikes in Syria are being treated at Defense Ministry hospitals."



- The Real Syrian Story is Now Very Much in Moscow
(Window on Eurasia)

- Russian Mercenary Debacle in Syria is Putin’s ‘Bay of Pigs’
(Window on Eurasia)



- The Curious Case of the Television Star Running Against Vladimir Putin
By Masha Gessen
(The New Yorker)
“No one gets on the Presidential ballot without Putin’s permission."



- In Russia, a grass-roots bid to expose Stalin's ‘Great Terror’
by Fred Weir
(Christian Science Monitor)
"Just about every former Soviet city has a place outside town, usually a forest or piece of scrubland, where Joseph Stalin’s secret police brought thousands of executed “enemies of the people” and dumped them into mass graves, especially during the nightmare years of the Great Terror of 1936-38. …”



- The Perils of Change: Russians’ Mixed Attitudes Toward Reform
(Carnegie Moscow Center)
"Many in Russia often view the absence of change as a positive, not a negative, phenomenon. Neither the country’s core ruling elite nor many ordinary Russians see a clear need for modernization, which they perceive to be a liberal project. … In the early 2000s, he satisfied the population’s demand for a return to order and stability. In 2014, with his forced takeover of Crimea, he fed their yearning for a restoration of Russia’s great-power status. These changes have been designed to preserve the existing political system, not to reform it."



- The Surprising Success of Putinomics
(Foreign Affairs)
"Behind Putin's Formula for Holding Onto Power"



- Intelligence officials say Russia intent on disrupting U.S. elections
(Politico-Europe | New York Times)
—



- A Survivalist Underground Emerges in Russia
(Window on Eurasia)
"Survivalists, who actively prepare for wars and other disasters often by withdrawing from the broader society, emerged first in the United States in the 1970s. They had no counterparts in the Soviet Union; but now ever more Russians are adopting survivalist strategies and can even be said to form a loosely organized underground movement.”
—
"Russian survivalists, Roman Kuzminov, one of their number says, are very different than their American counterparts in that Americans build bunkers but the Russians rely on the country’s enormous vacant spaces and thus plan to live more nomadically in rural areas in the event of a war, accident or other disaster."



- U.S. Secretly Negotiated With Russians To Buy Stolen Nsa Documents
 by James Risen
(The Intercept)

- Podcast: Inside The Nsa’s Secret Channel To Russia
(The Intercept)


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