✔ “... defeating us is impossible. It is possible to occupy us temporarily or to sometimes hurt us, but we cannot be defeated.”
- Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaitė (via Window on Eurasia)
✔ How Russia is celebrating Donald Trump's inauguration
- In the Russia category towards the end of the newsletter
- NB! The announcement that last week’s EstoNews (newsletter #111) would be the last one to be forwarded by Dr. Sõrra onto his e-mail list came quite unexpectedly. But literally within minutes of the announcement my inbox began filling up with dozens of e-mails requesting to be put onto the direct EstoNews mailing list. More have been received every day since. Thank you for your interest, support, and the many kind notes that accompanied your requests! Aitäh!
_________________
Friday 20. Jan.
_________________
✔ President Kaljulaid ei poolda Pätsile monumendi püstitamist
(ERR | Postimees)
“… ning peab õigemaks kõigi riigi asutajate pärandi jäädvustamist ühise mälestusmärgiga."
—
—
- Pätsi kuju plaan viis Kuberneri aia monumendi ideekonkursini
(ERR)
- Interview: Edward Lucas
- The Baltic States in a Post-NATO Environment
(Deep Baltic)
—
✔ Edward Lucas: oleme liikumas NATO-järgsesse keskkonda, mistõttu me peame olema suutelised ellu jääma ilma NATO’ta
(Delfi)
- Commentary: The Rights Of Small Nations
(Brian Whitmore)
"The sovereignty of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Georgia, Moldova, or Ukraine is no less sacrosanct than that of Russia, France, Germany, or the United States. I believe this is a principle well worth defending. But in the Kremlin, of course, there's a different view."
- Pensionisüsteemi ekspert: pole universaalset arusaama, mis on õiglane
(ERR)
—
- Pension to depend on years worked
(Postimees)
--
- What will happen to the retirement economy in the Baltic States?
(Baltic Course)
"The adverse demographic situation and labour migration are the basis of pessimism and non-confidence of the population, especially of the youth, in the state retirement system."
- Finland: Over a thousand applications for the 'coolest job in the world' in Lapland’s Arctic Snow Hotel
(Yle)
_________________
_________________
- NATO vastu tehti eelmisel aastal umbes 500 küberrünnakut kuus
(ERR)
--
- Spike in cyberattacks on NATO
(Deutsche Welle)
- Taas saab taotleda soodusviisat Venemaal käimiseks
(Lõunaeestlane)
"Pean oluliseks, et piirialade inimesed saaksid külastada oma sugulasi ja esivanemate või sugulaste kalme teisel pool piiri. See toetab üle põlvkondade püsinud sidemete jätkumist."
- Estonia worries about Moscow
(CNN via KXLF - Montana)
- ICDS To Survey Young Russians in Estonia
(Postimees)
"The International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS) is conducting a survey to determine attitudes of young Russian-speaking people in Estonia towards national defense and security, as well as their loyalty to the state.”
—
“The main aim of the survey is to map the general knowledge of young Russian-speakers living in Estonia of national defense and security and look into their personal attitudes, understanding, and positions to have reliable data on that age group.”
- Hundreds of German soldiers prepare to deploy to Baltics for NATO
(Deutsche Welle)
"26 tanks and 170 other military vehicles, including Marder armored vehicles and Leopard 2 tanks, would be stationed alongside the NATO force, some just 100 kilometers away from the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad."
—
- Slovenia Plans To Contribute Troops To Latvia For NATO Force
(RFERL)
- The Threat From Kaliningrad Is Real
(Real Clear World)
"Putin’s most recent act (October 2016) was to move two missile corvettes (the Serpukhov and the Zeleny Dol) from their base in the Black Sea to Kaliningrad. These Russian warships are equipped with Kalibr cruise missiles, … the Kalibr missiles have a range of more than 900 miles and from Kaliningrad can reach most NATO capitals.
--
"It is no wonder that the former commander of U.S. and allied air forces in Europe, retired Gen. Frank Gorenc, warned that NATO needs to come to "the realization that we don't have complete air dominance," and that in a crisis, significant parts of NATO territory would be “contested airspace.”
- Norway's Radical Military Experiment
(Foreign Affairs - login required)
"How Full Gender Integration Paid Off."
- Transcript: U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Samantha Power’s Speech Regarding Russia
(Time)
“… we have to do a better job of informing our citizens about the seriousness of the threat the Russian Government poses.”
- Domestic Refugees in Ukraine: Waiting Out the War
(Spiegel)
_________________
_________________
✔ CIA avalikustas suure hulga vanu dokumente, millest osa puudutab ka okupeeritud Balti riike
(ERR | Postimees)
--
- CIA tegi 1954. aastal ülevaate eesti slängist ja kõnepruugist
—
- Märksõnaga «Estonia» leiab CIA andmebaasist mitu tuhat viidet Eestile
http://www.postimees.ee/3983775/maerksonaga-estonia-leiab-cia-andmebaasist-mitu-tuhat-viidet-eestile
—
- CIA raport: Raske iseloomuga eestlased tegid Nõukogude võimudele allumatusega tüli
- CIA places 12 million pages of documents online
(UPI)
--
- New CIA 'Public Reading Room'
(CIA)
[Three examples of Estonia-related CIA reports are below.]
—
"Communist Activity, Morale, and Resistance” - Dated 1952
—
"General Conditions in Estonia” - Dated 1953
—
"Building Activity in Estonia since WW2” - Dated 1954
- Estonians join paramilitary forces to face Russia fears
(Japan Times)
“In the worst case scenario, Russia could advance very swiftly to take all of Estonia, but with its own resistance, Estonia could buy more time” for help to arrive, said Kristi Raik, a senior Baltic security researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, stressing that any such attack was unlikely at the moment."
- Moscow may return to ratification of Estonian-Russian border treaty
(The Baltic Times)
“… when bilateral relations are constructive …” [Whatever that may mean.]
—
- From Pro-Kremlin's TASS: "Russia to ratify border agreement with Estonia only if confrontation ruled out"
"Tallinn’s rhetoric was absolutely inappropriate for the continuation of this process without stirring up our public’s indignation.” - Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov
- Estonia, Lithuania Sign Deals With U.S. To Allow Troop Deployments
(RFERL | ERR | VOA)
—
—
- The summer I froze in the Cold War
(The Sydney Morning Herald)
[An Australian journalist’s experience while visiting the Viru Hotel in 1988.]
- EU: Why doesn't Europe protect itself?
(The Week)
"Is the original (NATO) mission obsolete?"
--
"The Baltic states don't think so. The citizens of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are acutely aware of Russia's involvement in fomenting secession in the Trans-Dniestria region of Moldova, in the Crimean peninsula of Ukraine, and in the Abkhazia and South Ossetia regions of Georgia, as well as the ways in which Russia has drawn former Soviet states like Belarus, Armenia, and Kazakhstan back into close embrace by their old metropole. They have every reason to fear similar moves to undermine their own prized independence."
--
"Keeping the Russians "out," then, is still an entirely valid mission — and a good reason for a defensive alliance aimed at achieving collective security."
- Strategic importance of Rail Baltic is limited to peacetime operations
(ERR)
"Rail Baltic will be of importance to Estonia’s national defense, but only before an actual armed conflict. Though it makes the large-scale transport of equipment and troops to the Baltic states possible, in case of an attack it is vulnerable, and would likely be cut off very soon … due to Russia’s so-called A2/AD set-up in the area. A2/AD stands for “Anti-access and area denial”. The former means limiting an enemy from entering an operational area, the latter limiting the enemy’s operative capabilities within it.”
- Thousands of Estonian ID cards expire this year
(ERR | Postimees)
"A bigger wave of ID-card replacements is expected this year, as new ID-cards were issued in 2012 with a validity period of five years. Nearly 200,000 Estonian citizen ID-cards and 150,000 passports will expire in 2017.” [Mine included!]
—
"April will mark the end of several years of preparations for the end of the life cycle of 1,024-bit RSA algorithm-based document certificates and the adoption of keys sporting a stronger level of encryption."
- Enterprise Estonia: There will be no new Estonian logo
(ERR)
"Enterprise Estonia has admitted that a thing or two could have been done differently, which would have avoided for example the printing of green splotches, misunderstood by many to be the country's new logo and the subject of a number of unflattering nicknames on social media following its public unveiling last week, on reusable bags made in India."
_________________
_________________
- Inimesed ei mõista Eesti uut brändi
(Delfi)
"Oksendav kilpkonn, nuttev siil, või rändrahn?”
--
--
—
- Estonia’s new branding is more style over substance
(Estonian World)
—
- Arvamus: Eesti bränd – miks mitte hoopis Estland, ristilipp ja Rising North?
(Eesti Päevaleht)
- Miljonipeldik tähistab 15 a. sünnipäeva
(Delfi)
"2002. aastal avati toona suurt furoori tekitanud ühiskasutatav tualett, mille maksumuseks kujunes lausa 2,3 miljonit krooni."
- e-Estonia
(Deutsche Welle video)
- Foorum: Kui suures mureks peaks olema Eesti Donald Trumpi ametisseastumisel?
(Postimees)
- Eesti blues through the eyes of photographer Tõnu Runnel
(Estonian World)
- Video: Ice Skating over Frozen Rummu Prison
(Daily Mail)
- Lithuania plans fence on Russian Kaliningrad border
(BBC | Washington Post)
_________________
_________________
- President Kaljulaid: keeldun ütlemast, et Trumpi saamine USA presidendiks on täiendav risk meile
(Delfi)
- EU foreign ministers, NATO backers counter Trump talk
(Deutsche Welle)
- Vene kindrali kaardil on Soome ja Rootsi Lapimaa sõjapiirkond
(Delfi)
- In Final Visit To Kyiv, Biden Urges World To Stand Against Russian Aggression
(RFERL)
"Russia, Biden said, has used corruption as a "tool of coercion" to keep Ukraine within its sphere of influence. Fighting corruption is not just a matter of good governance, it is essential for self-preservation and security, he said."
- Trumpi hinnangul on NATO iganenud organisatsioon
(Postimees | ERR)
"USA presidendiks valitud Donald Trump ütles esmaspäeval usutluses ajalehtedele Times ja Bild, et NATO on iganenud organisatsioon, millel on suured probleemid."
—
- European leaders shocked as Trump slams NATO and E.U
(Washington Post | Reuters | BBC | New York Times)
--
--
--
- As Trump Era Arrives, a Sense of Uncertainty Grips the World
(New York Times)
"He repeated past criticisms that NATO is “obsolete” for supposedly not confronting terrorism, only to quickly add that “with that being said, NATO is very important to me.”
_________________
_________________
- Even If West Recognized a Russian Sphere of Influence, Moscow Lacks the Resources to Hold It
(Window on Eurasia)
"Even if Donald Trump or other Western leaders were to recognize a region as lying within Russia’s sphere of influence, Moscow does not have the resources to hold it for long given the hostility to Russia felt the peoples of the countries within such a sphere, according to Ukrainian commentator Vitaly Portnikov.”
—
"Stalin’s “zone of influence was purchased with millions of lives of Soviet soldiers who died in order to secure the dictator not simply victory over the Reich but also territories in Europe and Asia. Putin’s “zone of influence would also have to be paid for with the blood both of Russians and residents of countries” he wants to include within it."
- US forces in Poland: Here to stay
(Deutsche Welle)
"A joint alliance force, known as Enhanced Forward Presence (EFP), is set to join, with Poland and the Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia each receiving a multinational battalion. All are NATO members. British troops will be in charge in Estonia, Canadian troops in Latvia and additional US troops are expected to arrive in April to take over operations there."
- Lithuania ‘Might Be Occupied for a Time but It Can Never be Defeated,' Grybauskaitė Says
(Window on Eurasia)
"Twenty-six years ago ... Soviet forces acting under orders from Mikhail Gorbachev shot and killed 14 Lithuanian demonstrators and wounded 600 others whose only “crime” was seeking to recover de facto what they had never lost de jure, their state independence that Moscow stole from it by means of a criminal deal with Adolf Hitler.”
—
Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaitė speaking today said what Lithuanians felt then and feel now: “We were all worried and literally glued to our TVs and radios and it seemed that everything was at an end, that we did not know what would happen in the next minute … “we knew then and we know now that defeating us is impossible. It is possible to occupy us temporarily or to sometimes hurt us, but we cannot be defeated.”
_________________
“Trust No One"
_________________
- MOSCOW, January 20. /TASS/ - "Russia’s President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to watch inauguration of the US new President Donald Trump, press secretary of the Russian president Dmitry Peskov told reporters. "I do not think he plans to watch it (Trump’s inauguration) online, as it is quite a time-taking ceremony," the Kremlin’s representative said, adding Putin, of course, will learn about this event from the news."
- Russia Celebrates Trump’s Inaugural
(The Daily Beast)
"For what must be the first time in history, Russians are treating the day an American president swears to “preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States” as their own significant event."
—
- Russians Celebrate Trump Inauguration With Swag and Discounts
(Foreign Policy)
—
- How Russia is celebrating Donald Trump's inauguration
(Washington Post)
—
- Russians Await Donald Trump's Inauguration With Anticipation
(NPR)
—
- In Trump We Trust: Inauguration prompts celebration in Russia
(Reuters)
- Baker’s Dozen of Neglected Russian Stories
(Paul Goble)
- OpEd: The inevitable Trumputin divorce
(Aljazeera)
"Why it is not meant to be for Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump."
- OpEd: Russia Gains When Trump Trashes NATO
(New York Times)
"Mr. Putin … has been working assiduously ... to destabilize Europe and weaken if not destroy NATO, which he blames for the Soviet Union’s collapse. Mr. Putin will almost certainly try to persuade Mr. Trump to withdraw American support for NATO’s plans to reinforce its defenses against a newly assertive Russia. As part of that effort, an American convoy crossed into Poland last week; on Monday, the deployment of 330 American Marines to Norway began. Reversing course any time soon would be a huge mistake."
✔ Analysis: Key Pillars of Russian Strategy
(War on the Rocks - A must-read)
“… various asymmetric means are how Russia prefers to actually make gains at low cost. There is also an emerging understanding that pervasive domains like cyber and information tinge even local conflicts with an element of total war fought throughout the depth of the adversary’s lines. This is why a confrontation over Ukraine and Syria would not leave Washington unscathed for long."
--
"These focus areas are well-suited to Russia’s limitations in hard economic and military power, leveraging indirect warfare, and its first-mover advantages as the initiator of confrontation. Still, new generation warfare betrays a lust for high-tech conventional warfare — having lots of missiles sticking out of your pocket to make the United States think twice about conflict. The implication for NATO planners in all of this is that new generation warfare reflects Russian thinking on how to make strategic gains with asymmetric means, not expensive pushes for real estate and large force-on-force contests. This may help explain why Moscow has never been keen on the supposedly tantalizing Baltic “fait accompli.”
- OpEd: Trump’s Pivotal Russian Test
(New York Times)
"There’s a mood of confidence in Moscow bordering on triumphalism.”
- The Price of Appeasing Russian Adventurism
(Carnegie Europe)
“… one wonders whether Trump and other so-called ‘ utinversteher' in the incoming administration fully understand the stakes. The risks do not only concern the fundamental national interests of such pro-American countries as Ukraine, Estonia, Georgia, or Poland. The U.S. administration’s tolerance of Russia’s violation of Ukrainian territorial integrity would have larger implications for the future of humanity."
_________
_____
__
