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13 January, 2017




- Editorial:
I probably watched hundreds of live U.S. Presidential news conferences during my time at the ABC Network (1980s, 1990s). Many of them bored me to tears, but I was working in a TV news control room and couldn't avoid them. But it must be pointed out that Mr. Trump's "press conference” was not a press conference in the traditional sense. It was a well-produced dog-and-pony show. A staged event. Reporters were yelled at. Reporters were not respected. Reporters were not able to ask follow up questions. News organizations were insulted and put down. Trump staff were present who applauded at Trump's answers and actually jeered at "opposition" reporters. A radio reporter commented that "This is a circus-like atmosphere”.
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Now, some people may be happy and having fun that Mr. Trump “really gave it to those liberal mainstream-media East Coast bastards” live on the international stage and that Mr. Trump was “taking total control”. But there is a looming danger in all of this. I have to agree with many of the points that Robert Reich wrote in today’s Salon (http://www.salon.com/2017/01/13/robert-reich-5-ways-trumps-news-conference-wasnt-a-news-conference_partner/). He wrote: "Tyrants don’t allow open questioning, and they hate the free press. They want total control.” This disregard for freedom of the press should concern all of us whose families escaped the Soviets to avoid just this type of tyrannical control. - Aavo Harju





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Friday 13. Jan.
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- US envoy’s message to Trump: Don’t screw it up in Europe
(Politico-Europe | Reuters)
"‘I might as well go out in a ball of flames,’ America’s EU ambassador Anthony Gardner told reporters in frank discussion. 
--



- An Open Letter to President-elect Trump from America’s Allies
(via The Washington Post)
[A group of 17 European dignitaries - including former Estonian President Ilves - published an open letter to Donald Trump warning that Russia is not America's ally.]
—
“… the hope is that calmer heads inside the new administration will argue forcefully for protecting the transatlantic relationship and standing by allies that have fought beside the United States for shared interests and values for decades. A grand bargain with Putin must not come at Europe’s expense."



- Nii kole bränd!
(Äripäev)
"Ettevõtja Marina Kaas ei suuda oma silmi uskuda: Eestile valiti nii kole brändilahendus ja selle eest on ka raha makstud. … Aga kas tõesti need asjad on Eesti tõelised sümbolid, mille järgi tahame maailmas tuntud olla?"



- Narva eestistamine
(Eesti Päevaleht)
[Log-in unfortunately is required.]



- Outline of Possible 'Big Deal' between Putin and Trump on Ukraine Emerging - Kyiv political scientist
(Window on Eurasia)
"This week, Rex Tillerson, Trump’s nominee to be secretary of state, said that the US could recognize Crimea as Russia if there were to be “a broader agreement which the people of Ukraine would recognize.”  There are “several logical conclusions” which flow from this …"







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Thursday 12. Jan.
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- Retired U.S. Marine General James Mattis offered lawmakers in Congress a full-throated endorsement of the NATO alliance
(Foreign Policy | New York Times | others)
"If we did not have NATO today, we would need to create it. It is vital to the United States. … Mattis also called for a permanent U.S. military presence in NATO’s Baltic allies, which are most vulnerable to Russian aggression.”
--
--
—
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- Kaitseministriks pürgiv erukindral Mattis toetab USA sõjalist kohalolu Baltimaades
(ERR)
--
- USA kaitseministri kandidaat: Venemaa üritab NATO-t lõhestada
(Postimees)
—
- James Mattis cruises through confirmation hearing
(The Hill | Slate)
"The vote was 24-3. The Senate Armed Services Committee afterward easily passed a waiver exempting Mattis from a law that requires Defense secretaries to be retired from military service for at least seven years."
--



- U.S. Troops Arrive In Poland
(NPR | Reuters | Latvian Broadcasting)
"In the nearby town of Zagan — known for notorious POW camps the Nazis set up, including one featured in the 1963 blockbuster movie "The Great Escape" - officials and residents waving small American flags celebrated the arrival of what will be a continuous, rotational presence of U.S. and NATO armored brigades in Eastern Europe.”
—
"But whether President-elect Donald Trump - who is highly critical of NATO - will withdraw the brigade after taking office is a question mark … "I wouldn't see that as likely very quickly, particularly given the likely role of general and secretary of defense nominee [James] Mattis in the process."
--
—
—
- NATO Deputy Secretary General: US armored brigade a 'proportionate response' to Russia
(Baltic Times)



- Interactive Map Shows the High Stakes Missile Stand-Off Between NATO and Russia
(Foreign Policy)





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Wednesday 11. Jan.
_________________


- Interaktiivne kaart: Vene riigi kinnisvara Eestis
(ERR)



- Newsweek: Estonian foreign intelligence eavesdropped on Russian official meeting Trump associate
(ERR | Postimees | Newsweek | Baltic Times)
—
—
--
“While Newsweek could not determine the purpose of the meeting, a Western intelligence official said that surveillance of the meeting was conducted by or on behalf of the Estonian Information Board (EIB), the foreign intelligence service of Estonia. (Last year, EIB advised government leaders that the Russian government posed the greatest near-term danger to the security of Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia. As a result, Trump’s apparent support for Putin during the campaign raised concerns within the Baltic governments that, with a Trump presidency, they would face increased national security threats from Russia.) However, no evidence has emerged that Trump knew of the meeting or was briefed about it afterward."



- Politsei ja Piirivalveamet andis mullu välja üle 7500 relvaloa
(Postimees)



- Moscow Plans to ‘Export Separatism’ to Baltic Countries
(Window on Eurasia)
A Moscow analyst claims that Moscow is ”… confident that it can do so because the West will not be willing to go to war against a nuclear power to defend them."



- Russian party keen to establish presence in Estonian politics 
(Baltic Times)
"A group of activists has been working for almost six months now with a view to establishing a new political party called Party of the Peoples of Estonia (Eestimaa Rahvaste Partei - ERP, Партия Hародов Эстонии - ПНЭ) that would field its candidates in the general elections of 2019."



- Rex Tillerson Takes Firm Stance On 'Resurgent' Russia In Senate Hearing
(RFERL)
“… Russia "poses a danger" and that U.S. allies had a right to be alarmed about a 'resurgent Russia.' … admitted Russia had taken 'illegal action' with respect to Crimea.”
—
- Esto-Americans send their questions to Tillerson
(The Baltic Times)
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- Rex Tillerson says he hasn't talked Russia policy with Trump
(The Hill)
"Tillerson made the remark under questioning from Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), who asked about Russian sanctions and its aggression during a confirmation hearing at the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.”
—
“For all these answers that you’ve given me, does the president-elect agree with you?” Menendez asked. “The president-elect and I have not had the opportunity to discuss this specific issue or this specific area,” Tillerson said."
—
- USA senat kuulas välisministriks pürgivat Tillersoni
(ERR)
--
- Rex Tillerson Sheds Little Light on His Boss
(New York Times)
--
- Is Rex Tillerson's image as a Russia-lover fair?
(Christian Science Monitor)



- Can Europe Defeat Russian Disinformation?
(Carnegie Europe)
[Ten experts weigh in with their opinions.]






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Tuesday 10. Jan.
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- Opinion: Why the Baltics Want to Move to Another Part of Europe
(Bloomberg View)
[The UN classified the Baltics as being Northern European decades ago but economically are not quite at the Nordic level.]
—
- Estonia still an Eastern European country
(ERR)
“No changes have taken place in the UN’s division of countries by geographical region and regional group as far as Estonia is concerned. According to the classification of countries by geographical region for statistical use by the United Nations Statistics Division, Estonia belongs among countries of Northern Europe. Under the UN classification by regional group, Estonia belongs in the Eastern European Group. These two classifications are not connected with each other and are made for different purposes,” said spokesperson for the Estonian Foreign Ministry, Mariann Sudakov."



- Fake news, free speech, and lies
(UpNorth)
"It becomes even harder to tell fact from fiction, if we start identifying as “fake news” any statements that we find ideologically disagreeable or that come from a political opponent."
--
- How Will U.S. Media Fight the Weaponization of ‘Fake News’?
(The Daily Beast)
"Fake news has a real meaning: deliberately constructed lies, in the form of news articles, meant to mislead the public."
--
- It’s time to retire the tainted term ‘fake news’
(The Washington Post)
--
- Opinion: Calling fake news 'alternative media’ is like calling an outhouse an 'alternative restaurant’
(ERR)





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Monday 9. Jan.
_________________


- Nato’s return on investment
(BNE - 6. Jan.)
"Trump appears to have little sense of Nato’s history or purpose. As an ordinary citizen, he might be forgiven for his ignorance of the US’ most critical alliance, but as the future occupant of the highest office in the land, his misunderstanding of (and casual disdain for) Nato’s background is a matter of national security. Nato’s formation and development, contrary to some characterizations, is not some freebie subsidy lavished on decadent Europeans, but the result of painstaking and interests-based deliberations."



- Finland: A one-time shrine to Lenin adopts an uncensored view
(Christian Science Monitor)



—
- Podcast: Honey Traps And Money Traps
(RFERL)





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- Russia -
“Trust No One"
_________________


- Ten Pieces of Bad Economic News from Russia in Last 24 Hours Alone
(Paul Goble)
—
- Baker’s Dozen of Neglected Russian Stories
(Paul Goble)



- Elation Over Trump Melts Away As Russia Reacts To 'Hawkish’ Tillerson
(RFERL)



- Trump’s vision of US-Russian relations must confront reality
(The Conversation)

--

- Recommitting the United States to European Security and Prosperity
(Heritage Org. Brief)
"Five Steps for the Incoming Administration."



- Moscow's biggest deception
(CEPA)
 "Russia confronts serious internal decay and a new time of turmoil is fast approaching that will have global reverberations and affect U.S. interests. The more extensive the decline, the more likely that the Kremlin will engage in foreign interventions to deceive and mobilize its citizens. To avoid sudden surprises and possible military confrontations, the Trump administration must devise ways to manage Russia’s deterioration and limit the impact of its external aggression rather than propping up a failing state that is following the path of the Soviet Union."



- Interview: Garry Kasparov
(Yahoo News - Michael Isikoff)
"Kasparov warns of a Trump-Putin alliance."



- Interactive Map Shows the High Stakes Missile Stand-Off Between NATO and Russia
(Foreign Policy)
—
- The Russia / NATO A2AD Environment
(CSIS)
"Russia has invested considerable energy into developing A2AD capabilities and carefully positioning them to maximize their strategic effect. Russia’s A2AD deployments span as far north as the Arctic down to Syria, with particular concentrations in Kaliningrad and around Crimea—a sort of “thicket of overlapping and redundant A2/AD systems.” In the event of a crisis, such deployments would complicate NATO’s ability to access key areas such as the Baltics or Poland. These relative weaknesses within NATO could increase the attractiveness to Russia of a fait-accompli."



- Russian Propaganda Outlets Declared 'Important for Country's Defense’
(The Moscow Times)
"The Rossiya Segodnya news agency (formerly RIA Novosti,) the TASS news agency, and the VGTRK television and radio holding, all made the list of of state companies that bear “essential significance in protecting the rights and lawful interests of Russian citizens, as well as defense potential and security of the state.”



- Kremlin Propaganda Effort Ever Less Effective on Russians: Surveys
(Window on Eurasia)



- Twenty years ago Russians loved the US. Where did it all go wrong?
(Christian Science Monitor)


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06 January, 2017



✔ Baltic states are NOT 'ex-Soviet’ republics - Baltic Times

✔ Narva Prospers While Russia’s Ivangorod Decays  - Paul Goble

✔ Aastalõpu Intervjuu: President Kersti Kaljulaid  - ERR 

✔ - US Special Forces deployed in Baltic states - New York Times

- Foto:




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Friday 6. Jan. 2017
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- Baltic states are NOT 'ex-Soviet' republics
(The Baltic Times | Latvian Broadcasting)
"Ambassadors of the three Baltic states have asked the German media to stop referring to Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia to as former Soviet republics. The Lithuanian Foreign Ministry said the address had been inspired by the Soviet Legacy column on the German news portal ZEIT ONLINE. According to the ministry, the portal responded to the remark, pledging to stop using the concept that is inaccurate in the sense of international law."
—
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- Osa USA sõjatehnikast on jõudnud Saksamaale
(ERR)
"Esialgu oli plaanis, et sõjaväelased saabuvad jaanuari lõpus, kuid USA ametist lahkuv president Barack Obama kiirendas protsessi, et 20. jaanuaril ametisse astuv Donald Trump seda peatada ei saaks."



- Rakverre tuleb Arvo Pärdi nimeline kontserdimaja
(Postimees)
"Virumaa Muuseumid näituste ala ning Rakvere Pauluse kiriku hoone renoveeritakse multifunktsionaalseks Arvo Pärdi nimeliseks kontserdimajaks ja kultuurikeskuseks."



- Intervjuu: Garri Kasparov
(Postimees)



- Finland's Brain Drain: Research Groups Now Moving Abroad
(Yle)
"Cuts to universities and state-funded research centres are contributing to growing brain drain from Finland and increasing unemployment among the highly educated …"



- Why Ukraine celebrates Christmas on 7. January
(Euromaidan Press)



- Moscow Lacks a Plan to Ensure Kaliningrad Oblast’s Security
(Window on Eurasia)
"The Regnum news agency has often taken a harder line on issues on the Baltic region than have Moscow and its representatives on the scene, but this editorial is unusual in its tone and direct criticism of the powers that be locally and at the center.  That suggests that far more than the editors of one Russian news portal are worried about what is happening in Kaliningrad."




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Thursday 5. Jan. 2017

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- Review: Estonian national museum - 
touching and revealing
(The Guardian)
“The Estonian National Museum is not a usual sort of institution. Its past is wrapped up with that of the country itself. Now it somehow has to represent the complex and precarious history of Estonia, in a fraught present, with a combination of pride and sensitivity."



- Unease in the Baltics as US allies watch Trump praise Putin
(PRI)



- Leo Kunnas kirjutas raamatu tulevikusõjast Venemaaga
(Postimees)
"26. september 2023. Kell 08.51 lõpevad õppused «Zapad» ja algab sõda, milleks Venemaa on järjekindlalt ning hoolikalt valmistunud ligi poolteist aastakümmet. Nii algab kolonelleitnant Leo Kunnase värskeim teos «Sõda 2023. Taavet ja Koljat», mis jõudis raamatupoodidesse vahetult enne jõuluaega."
--
(Rahva Raamatupood)



- Two New Estonian Novels Consider Two Very Different Outcomes of a War with Russia
(Paul Goble)
"The two novels, “David” and “Goliath,” are both devoted to what (Leo) Kunnas describes as “an upcoming war” in 2023 between Russia and the West, with the former postulating a victory by the West and the latter a defeat."



- Opinion: How Estonia can save Western civilization
(The Hill)



- Russian President confirms summer 2017 visit to Finland
(Yle)
“… to celebrate Finland’s 100-year anniversary of independence."





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Wednesday 4. Jan. 2017
_________________


- US Special Forces deployed in Baltic states
(The Baltic Times)
—
- U.S. Lending Support to Baltic States Fearing Russia
(New York Times)
"The deployment of about a dozen American Special Operations forces to each of the Baltic States is a piece of the larger allied military strategy to deter any future Russian aggression. Embedded with their Baltic counterparts, the American commandos augment intelligence-gathering and other assessments by the Central Intelligence Agency and American diplomats on the threat posed by Russian activities.”
—
“Do the Russians know we’re there?” General Thomas said. “Yes.”
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- Kas USA eriväelased on Eestis? Jah, ilmselt on nad siin üsna tihti 
(Delfi)



- Russia Wants a Reset With NATO
(Foreign Policy | Moscow Times)
“I think a statement like this is strategically timed just weeks before Trump takes office,” said Rachel Rizzo, a NATO expert at the Center for New American Security. “Russia wants to make it sound like they’re ready to rebuild normal relations with NATO, they’ve just been waiting for the West to meet them halfway.”
—
“We need to build normal relations with NATO and renew what we had before,” Andrei Kelin, the Foreign Ministry’s head of the Department of European Cooperation, told Interfax. Many countries are NATO members because it is economically and politically profitable, allowing them to save money that would otherwise be spent on maintaining a full army, Kelin said. Such logic is particularly important for smaller countries, he added."
--
"… it is impossible to convince member states that they should leave NATO,” Kelin concluded, because their membership is based upon “purely rational reasons.”



- NATO: Russian Aircraft Intercepted 110 Times Above Baltic in 2016
(Newsweek)



- Like the sound of 10-gigabit internet everywhere? Then move to Estonia
(ZDNET)





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Tuesday 3. Jan. 2017
_________________


- A Tale of Two Cities: Estonia’s Narva Prospering While Russia’s Ivangorod Decays
(Paul Goble)
“… ethnic Russians in Narva, a city in a NATO country, are doing far better than the ethnic Russians in the Russian Federation currently ruled by Putin … just across the Narva River in Ivangorod, Russia, the situation is very different. Incomes are stagnating or falling for its 10,000 residents. The city has fewer resources than before to provide social services because of cutbacks in Moscow’s transfer payments. And the prospects for the future are anything but bright."
--
  "Russians clearly recognize this: There is currently a two-kilometer line of cars leaving Russia and seeking entry into Estonia for the holidays; there is no such line of cars leaving Estonia and seeking entry into Russia."



- John McCain & Co’s Magical Mystery Tour of Russia’s Front Line
(The Daily Beast)
"John McCain, Lindsey Graham, and Amy Klobuchar traveled from the Baltic to the Black Sea confronting Putin—and Trump."
—
- McCain Says US Troops Should Stay Permanently In Estonia
(Washington Post | Daily Caller)
--
--
- NATO’s Jittery Baltic Members Move to Beef Up Own Defense
(Wall Street Journal - subscription)



- To counter fake news, Germany should look to Eastern Europe
(CEPA)
"Fake news is stale news in the frontline states. Even back in the early 1990s, Estonians, Latvians and Lithuanians were used to alarmist nonsense appearing on Russian television."
—






_________________

Monday 2. Jan. 2017
_________________





- US senators praise Ukrainian marines, slam Putin
(Politico-Europe)



- Norway, an Exemplar of NATO Burden-Sharing
(Foreign Affairs)



- Warning of 'collapse' of buildings in Siberia's permafrost cities in next 35 years
(Siberian Times | Window on Eurasia)
—





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Sunday 1. Jan. 2017
_________________


- Estonia A Global Human Rights Leader With Magnitsky Law
(World Affairs Journal | UpNorth)
“… at a conference held on the eve of International Human Rights Day, Estonian President Kersti Kaljulaid signed a law—unanimously passed by the country’s parliament—providing for the denial of visas “if there is information or good reason to believe that the alien has participated in or contributed to the violation of human rights in a foreign state, which has resulted in the death, serious physical harm or unfounded conviction of a person for a crime for political motives, or some other serious consequences.”
—
“Estonia (is) the first country in Europe to adopt such provisions.”
(President Kaljulaid Press Release)
—
"In a unprecedented vote, 90-0 unanimously in favour of the Magnitsky Amendment, Estonia became the first nation in the world to adopt this global human rights tool that creates real consequences for repressive government agents."



✔ Aastalõpu Intervjuu: President Kaljulaid
(ERR)
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✔ End-of-year Interview: President Kaljulaid
(ERR)
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- Kersti Kaljulaid uusaastatervituses
(Postimees)
—
- President Kersti Kaljulaid’s New Year Address
(Postimees)










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- Russia | Putin-
“Trust No One"
_________________


- Russia begins military drawdown in Syria
(Deutsche Welle | BBC)
—
—
- Venemaa alustas vägede väljatoomist Süüriast
(ERR)
—
"Beleaguered Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov … begins its transition on Friday and is headed toward the Russian port of Severomorsk, a town in the Murmansk region where Russia's Northern Fleet is headquartered.”
(Moscow Times)



- Putin and the Populists
(The Atlantic)
"The roots of Russia's political appeal in Europe and the United States."



- Digging Up My Grandfather’s Killers: A Journey Through the Stalinist Archives
(Carnegie Moscow Center)
"I was able to read the secret police files of my grandfather, who died in the Russian gulag in 1946, and then cross-reference the names of the men who persecuted him in the new database published by Memorial. Russia’s grandsons need to confront the truth about what their grandfathers did—but the Russian state would prefer its people to live with historical amnesia."



- Putin’s real long game
(Politico-Europe)

"A renewed approach to dealing with Putin’s Russia should begin by addressing the tactics of Russia’s new warfare from the perspective of strength."
--
"We have to accept we’re in a war and that we have a lot to lose."



- Putin’s Revenge
(Politico Magazine)
"Humiliated by the 1990s, Russia’sstrongman is determined to win ColdWar 2.0. He may be succeeding."



- Russia Resurgent
(Slate)
"Against all expectation, relations with Russia have dominated the Obama administration’s foreign policy, right up through last week, when the president issued sweeping sanctions, in retaliation for Russia’s election meddling, that belied the blithe tone of his previous remarks. Relations with the renascent superpower are likely to dominate the next president’s term as well—in ways we’re only beginning to fathom."



- A Trump-Putin Deal on Crimea Could Trigger a Much Bigger War
(Window on Eurasia)
 "That would be a tragedy for Ukraine ... but a far greater tragedy would likely emerge from how Putin would read such a deal, as an indication that the West is not ready to stand up to him and that he can engage in more aggression with impunity."



- Is Putin’s Master Plan Only Beginning?
(Vanity Fair)
"With three consequential European elections occurring in 2017, the former K.G.B. officer has more potential to undermine free societies than he could have ever fathomed during his Cold War days."



- Putin won 2016, but Russia has its limits as a superpower
(The Washington Post)



- Putin Touts 'New Integraton' Of Former Soviet States On Economy, Defense
(RFERL)
"The presidents of Armenia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan were in St. Petersburg for the meetings, which included informal summits of the Eurasian Economic Union and Collective Security Treaty Organization."



- The GRU: Putin’s No-Longer-So-Secret Weapon
(The Daily Beast)



- Russia Fell Apart When Its Leaders Overrated Its Strength and That Could Happen Again
(Window on Eurasia)
 “… Russia “just like a century ago is meeting a new year imaging itself as surrounded by enemies – and as Petersburg then hadn’t yet been renamed Petrograd, one feels that such the suggestion of a parallel is no accident.” But if history is repeating itself, it will be “not as a tragedy but as a farce,” although just how much of one remains to be seen."





- The Soviet Union Is Gone, But It’s Still Collapsing
(Foreign Policy)
--
- The USSR ceased to exist 25 years ago and the Russians are still reinventing themselves
(PRI)
“… most Russians met the occasion with a collective shrug."
—
- Russia: Fall and rise in 25 years
(BBC)
—
- Why do so many people miss the Soviet Union?
(The Washington Post)
—
- Why are there no Russian feature films on the dissolution of the USSR?
(The Calvert Journal)

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26 December, 2016


History: While putting together a recent EstoNews newsletter I stumbled across an interesting webpage in the National Security Archives quite by accident. It presented a now-declassified list of nuclear targets within the USSR. Logically I knew that sites within Eesti might have been targeted, but it was a bit shocking to actually read each town and city name. The list, which was at one point top secret, was released to the public on 22. December 2015. 
Each page is labelled ‘Declassified - Authority NNO-75573’. 



- U.S. Cold War Nuclear Target List
National Security Archives
George Washington University

22. December 2015

"The SAC [Strategic Air Command] Atomic Weapons Requirements Study for 1959, produced in June 1956 ... provides the most comprehensive and detailed list of nuclear targets and target systems that has ever been declassified. As far as can be told, no comparable document has ever been declassified for any period of Cold War history.” 
——
"SAC laid out the numbers and types of nuclear weapons required to destroy each DGZ [Designated Ground Zeros]. The nuclear weapons information is completely excised from the report making it impossible to know how many weapons SAC believed were necessary to destroy the various targets. In any event, SAC could anticipate a very large stockpile of nuclear weapons by 1959 to target priority objectives. This was a period when the nuclear weapons stockpile was reaching large numbers, from over 2400 in calendar 1955 to over 12,000 in calendar 1959 and reaching 22,229 in 1961.” 
——
"Heavily-targeted Eastern European cities revealed in the list include Berlin; Bucharest; Budapest; Dresden; Leipzig; Riga; Sofia; Tallinn; Tbilisi; Vilnius; Warsaw; and Wrocław (Breslau).” 


https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/nukevault/ebb538-Cold-War-Nuclear-Target-List-Declassified-First-Ever/



The following are screenshots of six pages from the Strategic Air Command Atomic Weapons Requirements Study of 1959. Targets in Estonia are circled in red.









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