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02 December, 2016


✔ Toomas Hendrik Ilvese ja Ieva Ilvese perre sündis poeg  
Toomas and Ieva have a new baby boy - Hans Hendrik Ilves

✔ Kaitsevägi kutsus kokku esimese välkõppuse
Estonian defense forces stage snap reserve exercise

✔ Tšornobõli ohtlik reaktor sai 100 aastaks uue katte
A new cover for the Chernobyl sarcophagus



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Friday 2. December
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- President Kaljulaid: Baltics are not afraid of migrants or Russians
(Estonian World | BNN)
“In the first case, we are calmly carrying out the relocation programme agreed between EU member states. Refugees are arriving in Estonia every month and we are working hard to integrate them into Estonian society.”
--
"As to Russia, the president says, “we are aware of our geographic location and under no illusions about our neighbour. Yet we are no more concerned than other allies and like-minded partners in Europe. Security is indivisible, be it in the east of Europe or in the south. Moreover, we are not just consumers, but proud providers of security in various parts of the world where people have faced and still face real dangers.”
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--
- Naljaloo: "Trump Helistab Kaljulaidale"
(Postimees video)
Näitlejad: Raivo Tamm ja Hilje Murel



- Everyone in Europe Needs to Take a Deep, Calming Breath
 by Toomas Hendrik Ilves
(Foreign Policy - 18. November)
"Trump’s statements have, in effect, served as a sort of journalistic Rorschach test. A good amount of ink, for instance, has been used up on scare stories about the fate of the Baltics. But why look to Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania when a candidate says he will look at whether NATO countries pay their share? Estonia, as mentioned, is one of the very few that does. Latvia and Lithuania are committed to 2 percent by 2018. To instantly sound the alarm over the Baltic countries in response to Trump’s words reflects more about the worldview of various publications than the reality of what was said.” 
--
—
- Ilves: Baltics should be more worried about EU collapse than transatlantic relations
(The Baltic Times)



- A NATO-Agenda for President Elect Trump
(Real Clear Defense - by Ian Brzezinski)
"Upon taking the reins of the U.S. government, the new U.S. president will encounter an Alliance that has begun to transform its mindset and capabilities with the aim of better addressing the challenges posed by Russia and the crises affecting, directly and indirectly, Alliance interests in regions neighboring and well beyond the North Atlantic area."
--

- Mattisega heades suhetes olev Laaneots: ta teab hästi Eesti olukorda
(ERR)
"Riigikogu riigikaitse komisjoni liige, erukindral Ants Laaneots (RE), kes on heades suhetes Donald Trumpi võimaliku kaitseministri James Mattisega, ütles, et tegemist oleks Eesti jaoks hea valikuga, sest Mattis on siinse olukorraga hästi kursis."
—
- Trump to Nominate Retired Gen. James Mattis to Lead Pentagon
(ABCNews | Foreign Policy)
[‘Mad Dog’ Mattis will be good for Eesti according to Ants Laaneots.]
—




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Thursday 1. December

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✔ Kaitsevägi kutsus kokku esimese välkõppuse | Estonian defense forces stage snap reserve exercise 
(ERR | Eesti Kaitsevägi | Delfi | Postimees)
—
—
—
--
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“… exercise is codenamed Okas (Hedgehog Quill) …"
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- Russian ‘Provocation’ Risk Irks Estonia
(Bloomberg - Ott Ummelas)
"Instability in the Baltic region has risen because of the growing aggressiveness of Russia’s regime over several years.”
--
- Lithuania: Civilians fearing Russian attack train for worst
(AP)
"Whether the danger is real or just bluster remains to be seen. But in Lithuania, a country that experienced a Russian occupation before, some people aren't waiting to find out."
--
- Latvia: Keep calm but keep allies and weapons close
(Deutsche Welles)
"The Latvian parliament passed a budget that will see the country's spending on defense rise from 1.4 percent of GDP this year to 1.7 percent next year and then up to the magic NATO number of 2 percent in 2018."
—
- Finland: Support for Nato membership still low
(Yle)
"Finnish support for joining Nato almost unchanged at 25 percent. There has, however, been a big increase in the proportion of those surveyed who see Russia as a negative influence in Finnish society."
—
- Ukraine: Preparing for Trump
(Foreign Affairs)
—
- Poland: Preparing for Trump
(Carnegie Europe)





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Wednesday 30. November
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- Near The Russian Border, U.S. And NATO Beef Up Their Presence
(NPR)
[Audio report from Tapa, Estonia.]



- Intervjuu: Siseministeeriumi asekantsler Erkki Koort
(ERR)
"Sõda on meile geograafiliselt lähemal, kui ta kõikide stsenaariumite osas võiks olla, ilma et ta puudutaks NATO või Euroopa Liidu territooriumi."



- Arvamus: Kui läheb Narva, kas siis ka Eesti?
(Postimees)
"Narva on ju omamoodi eksperiment, katse luua ilma eestlasteta Eestit. See on raske, aga siiski mitte lootusetu ettevõtmine …"



- On 75th Anniversary of Winter War, Finns Fear Moscow May Use Ukrainian Scenario against Them
(Paul Goble)
 "For Finns, the Winter War remains the defining event of their national life in the 20th century, a continuing reminder of the threat Russia poses to their country, of the need for caution in dealing with Moscow, and of the ways in which they were able by dint of hard fighting to prevent Stalin from annexing it to the Soviet Union."




- EU: French Election Hints at a European Shift Toward Russia
(ECFR | New York Times)
"François Fillon has just won the French conservative primaries by a huge margin. Now, he will be trying to capitalise on the momentum he has gained from his win to deliver the result he wants in the upcoming presidential election. And with his foreign policy option, this presidential vote will pose a formidable challenge to Europe’s unity. Fillon’s views on Russia, in particular, fly in the face of the current European consensus."




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Tuesday 29.November
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- Kindralleitnant Terras: sõda ei ole kunagi ilus
(ERR)



- Interview: Minister of Foreign Affairs Sven Mikser
(Postimees)
“… while President Putin might try and test the red line in the Baltic region, the provocation can be prevented in allied cooperation."



- Estonian Troops Have Never Fought a Cold War - Thanks to Pop-Up Saunas
(Wall Street Journal - subscription)
"Saunas are marched into war zones …"



- Is It Prudent or Paranoid to Worry about Russia’s Influence in the Baltics?
(Atlantic Council)



- Trump ja May rääkisid teises telefonikõnes NATO tähtsusest
(ERR)
--
- Trump and May 'agree on importance of Nato' in second phone call
(The Guardian)
"Exchange between US president-elect and PM seen as significant after his scepticism about alliance during election campaign."



✔ Tšornobõli ohtlik reaktor sai 100 aastaks uue katte
(Postimees)
--
✔ Ukraine: A new cover for the Chernobyl sarcophagus
(RFERL video | Deutsche Welle)
"A new radiation cover for the Chernobyl reactor ruin will be officially put into service today, after six years of construction. The building is designed to contain and eventually aid the removal of radioactive debris.”
--





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Monday 28. November
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- What Trump Means for Central and Eastern Europe
(The Atlantic)
"Like many security officials in the region, Jonatan Vseviov, permanent secretary of the Estonian ministry of defense, was circumspect. “Every campaign is heated. I’m sure it’s going to be fine,” he said, echoing a now-common sentiment across Eastern Europe. “There is no causal relationship, necessarily, between relations between the U.S. and Russia, and Baltic security. I don’t think we live in that simple a world,” he said. “We live in a region that is very stable, but where stability can turn into instability relatively fast.”



- Lauri Mälksoo: kui Venemaad tabab tõsine kitsikus, on neil lihtne naabreid süüdistada
(Eesti Päevaleht - subscription)
--
- Book Review: Russian Approaches to International Law
by Lauri Mälksoo
"The book addresses a simple question: how do Russians understand international law?"


- Lt. Gen. James F. Fretterd, Former Maryland National Guard head, dies at 86
(Baltimore Sun)
Among his many accomplishments: “… established a partnership with Estonia in which Estonian troops would spend time training in Maryland, and Maryland Guard members would do the same in Estonia. He chose the Baltic nation because its capital, Tallinn, had a port similar to Baltimore's. Maryland later designated Tallinn a sister city of Annapolis in 1999."



- Toomas Hendrik Ilvese ja Ieva Ilvese perre sündis poeg
(ERR)
"Hans Hendrik Ilves"



- The Longer Russia Occupies Crimea, the More Likely Russia Will Disintegrate
(Window on Eurasia)
“(… in the late 1940s) Lavrenty Beria, Stalin’s notorious secret police chief, quietly explored the idea of allowing the Baltic countries to go their own way as Soviet-controlled “peoples republics” like the East Europeans outside of the USSR. Beria went so far as to have his agents contact Baltic officials to compose lists of who might be the senior officials in such nominally independent countries, and he certainly believed that allowing Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania to go their own way in this limited sense would ease East-West tensions sufficiently to undercut American plans for NATO."
--
  "At least some in Putin’s Moscow today know this record and recognize the dangers involved in holding on to Crimea …"
or



- Stalinistlik maja
(Delfi - 18. November)





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- Russia -
“Trust No One"
_________________


- Baker’s Dozen of Neglected Russian Stories
(Paul Goble)



- A Subdued Putin Calls for ‘Mutually Beneficial’ Ties With U.S.
(Reuters | Deutsche Welle | New York Times)
"We don't want confrontation with anyone. We don't need it. We are not seeking and have never sought enemies. We need friends."
--
"His annual address blamed Russia's economic woes on domestic issues rather than international sanctions. … Putin referenced Russia's upcoming anniversary of the 1917 revolution to call for national unity. "It's inadmissible to bring divisions, malice, resentment and bitterness of the past into our life today," he said.”
—
"Mr. Putin’s mixing of pointed reminders of Russia’s status as a nuclear power with a measured expression of hope for an end to the current deep chill in relations with Washington contrasted sharply with the unalloyed glee expressed by many Russian politicians and commentators after Mr. Trump’s election victory."
--
- Putin süüdistab majanduse pidurdumises Venemaa siseprobleeme
(Postimees)



- How Russian Propaganda Really Works in the West
(Bloomberg - Leonid Bershidsky)
"Russian government propaganda … is woefully misunderstood. … RT and Sputnik are lavishly funded. RT's 2016 budget, according to the channel itself, is $247 million. As far as alternative media goes, RT is the 800-pound gorilla. It can pay lavish fees to contributors, shoot professional video anywhere in the world, pay for professional-looking reporting. The Russian state product is attractively packaged and free. The effect, of course, is that the "crazies" that populate the alternative news sphere, those dismissed by the mainstream, consume pro-Vladimir Putin information with their general diet."



- Putin’s Biker Buddy Calls for Putting Soviet Star on Russia’s Coat of Arms
(Window on Eurasia)
“(Aleksander Zaldostanov’s) plan, which he said had been developed by his Night Wolves bikers, would have the two-headed eagle illuminated by the sun’s rays and surrounded by sheaves of wheat, much as the Soviet coat of arms did and that it would be topped by a five-pointed star as a symbol of Russia’s victory in the Great Patriotic War. “New times require new symbols,” the biker continued, and “the unification on the coat of arms of tsarist and Soviet symbols is a symbolic rethinking of the Crimean consensus.”



- Misinformation on social media: Can technology save us?
(The Conversation)
“… we have an industry of fake news and digital misinformation. Clickbait sites manufacture hoaxes to make money from ads, while so-called hyperpartisan sites publish and spread rumors and conspiracy theories to influence public opinion. This industry is bolstered by how easy it is to create social bots, fake accounts controlled by software that look like real people and therefore can have real influence."
(reprinted by Time)



- “Panfilov’s 28”: Russia’s culture minister says anyone who questions this tale of Soviet bravery is ‘filthy scum’
(Washington Post | Moscow Times)
“Russia is vast, but there's nowhere to retreat - behind us is Moscow.”
--
"Russian Archives Cast Doubt on Legends of Soviet War Heroes."
—
"To Be Great Again, Russia Resurrects Soviet Legends."



- The Kremlin Would Be Proud of Trump’s Propaganda Playbook
(Mother Jones)
[The four ‘D’s of mis-information.]



- Putin brings China's Great Firewall to Russia in cybersecurity pact
(The Guardian)
"A group of Kremlin and security officials is driving the offensive against internet freedoms. The government fears the web could be used to mobilise protesters and disseminate dangerous ideas and information and it is looking for ways to switch off connections in times of crisis."



- Mikhail Khodorkovsky: Treat Putin as a bandit
(Politico-Europe)
“... blunt advice for Europe: Wake up and stop playing nice."



- Commentary: Putin Without Borders
(Brian Whitmore)



- A Russia reset? Maybe not yet
(Politico-Europe)
“… interviews with more than a dozen officials and experts contacted by POLITICO since the election reveal an unyielding bipartisan and institutional opposition to any perceived effort by Trump to appease Putin. Such a gesture would be met with strong resistance from Congress, European allies, career national security officials and possibly even some key Trump officials."



- Russia Opens Criminal Case Against Ukrainian Military Commanders
(RFERL)
“… for alleged war crimes committed in the eastern Ukrainian Donbas region."

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18 November, 2016


- There will be no email newsletter next week due to the US Thanksgiving Day holiday. 
If events warrant, news links may appear on the EstoNews blog. 


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Friday 18. November
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✔ Trump, NATO chief pledge alliance's 'enduring importance' 
(Reuters | Politico-Europe | others)

"U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg agreed on Friday on the Western alliance's "enduring importance", NATO said, striving to reassure Europe that Washington will remain committed to its security.”
———
"NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Friday he is “absolutely confident” that President-elect Donald Trump will maintain the United States’ role in the international organization, despite Trump’s past suggestions that he would pull back from the commitment if other countries did not bear more of the financial burden."










- Setomaa: A Fairytale Kingdom Faces Real-Life Troubles
(National Geographic)
"On the [southeastern] border of Estonia and Russia, the Setos struggle to create a modern identity from ancient beliefs. … Two thirds of Seto land falls in the Pskov region of Russia, though only a few hundred Setos live there.” 

- Pääle kiräkeele kõnõldas Eestin kõgõ inämb võro ja seto kiilt!
(Lõunaleht - märts 2015)

- National Geographic avaldas artikli maagilisest Setomaast



- Tallinnas avati uuenenud valgustusega jõuluturg | Christmas market in Vana Tallinn is now open
(ERR | Postimees)



- Obama, EU leaders agree to stick together, stay tough on Russia
(Reuters | NYT | AP)



- Rumor: Baltic warning over Russian move on Nato
(BBC)
"Lithuania has warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin may test Nato in the weeks before Donald Trump becomes US president.”


- How World War III Could Begin in Latvia
(Foreign Policy - Paul Miller)


✔ USA analüütik: Trump peab varsti otsustama, kas Balti riikide kaitsmine on väärt kolmandat maailmasõda
(Delfi)


- More than 60% of Estonians consider EU membership a good thing
(ERR)


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Thursday 17. November
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- We’re Worried About the Baltics: What Does Trump’s Election Portend for these Tiny U.S. Allies?
(Lawfare)


- In Estonia, Caution but Surprising Cheers for Trump’s Victory
(New York Times)
“… profound worry over Mr. Trump’s intentions has calmed somewhat because the president-elect has pulled back from statements he made on the campaign trail."
———
In an effort to head off any weakening of American support for the Baltic States, Mr. Kalnins and a group of fellow legislators from Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania will travel to Washington early next month to press their case to the Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell, and others who might help influence Mr. Trump."


- Russia to again allow Estonian, Latvian non-citizens to enter country without visa
(The Baltic Times)
"According to the draft document published on the website of the Russian draft legislation a separate category of non-citizens [approx. 6,000] has emerged - non-citizens in Latvia and Estonia who were born after February 6, 1992 and have come of age, as well as their offspring, who cannot enjoy visa-free travels to Russia."


- Lithuania Suspends Russian TV After Anti-U.S. Comments
(RFERL)
"The order came after a recent broadcast in which Russian Duma member Vladimir Zhirinovsky was shown saying that if U.S. troops get near Russia's borders "they will burn down with the crew.” Zhirinovsky is the leader of the nationalist Liberal Democratic party and is known for flamboyant [read: dangerous] remarks but also for hewing closely to Kremlin policy."





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Wednesday 16. November
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- Opinion: No antidote to Putin's influence in Eastern Europe
(Deutsche Welle)
“… despite the fact that there is consensus for a strengthening of NATO's eastern flank, not all countries are willing to help the alliance to the same degree. The Baltics, Poland and Romania are the only Eastern European states willing, and actively preparing, to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with the USA in the face of a possible Russian military threat.”


- In the name of Russian votes
(Postimees)
“… the Center Party's scandalous cooperation agreement with Vladimir Putin's United Russia party was signed in 2004 with one simple goal in mind – to finally help the party come to power on the wings of the Russian vote.”


- EU unveils security check plan for visitors
(Deutsche Welle | EU Observer)
“… to be applied to millions of short-term visitors from 60 countries who can currently visit Europe's Schengen area without each first applying for a visa."



- EU member states back visa-free travel for Ukrainians
(Deutsche Welle)




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Tuesday 15. November
_________________

- Internet Freedom: Estonia Listed at #1
(RFERL | Freedom House)


- Briti valitsus soovib Trumpiga NATO teemal arutada
(ERR)




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Monday 14. November
_________________

- Venemaa püüab oma mõjuvõimu Soomes suurendada
(ERR)


- Could Estonia lose its only Russian-language TV channel ETV+?
(The Calvert Journal)


- Make Eastern Europe safe again
(Politico - Eerik-Niiles Kross & Molly K. McKew)
"The Kremlin thrives on uncertainty, and it will continue to operate in uncertain and unstable places with a free hand. The Baltic states need strong words from the U.S. president-elect. Only his unwavering support for the enhanced NATO footprint in the Baltic states and Poland can end the current uncertainty, enhance stability, and make clear that what is ours is ours, and not up for negotiation."


- Latvia to build a fence on border with Belarus
(Latvian Broadcasting)






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- Trump | Putin -
- "Trust No One” -
_________________

✔ Media: Watching the US elections in Moscow
(Politico-Europe)
"When it seemed Clinton would win, the editor of Russia Today tweeted “Democracy RIP” - but then quickly rescinded her comment when it became apparent Trump had come out on top. Russian state TV similarly switched gears, churning out a narrative of American working classes flooding the polling stations and finally taking back their country. … State TV channels eagerly explained that Americans had voted for Trump “because they were tired of the anti-Russian attitudes of Clinton and the establishment."

"Two days before the US election, state TV channel Russia 24 launched a countdown timer of the hours and minutes left until polls opened – a level of hype and anticipation far exceeding that witnessed during Russia’s own recent parliamentary elections.” - The Guardian-Uk



✔ A Trump administration thaw with Russia is ‘unacceptable,’ John McCain says
(Washington Post | ERR)
“With the U.S. presidential transition underway, Vladi­mir Putin has said in recent days that he wants to improve relations with the United States,” McCain (R-Ariz.) said in a statement released by his office. “We should place as much faith in such statements as any other made by a former KGB agent who has plunged his country into tyranny, murdered his political opponents, invaded his neighbors, threatened America’s allies and attempted to undermine America’s elections."

✔ McCain: katse "taaskäivitada" suhteid Venemaaga oleks vastuvõetamatu

- Kremlin: Trump and Putin Did Not Talk About Crimea 
(The Moscow Times)


- What will the new American president do to end Russia’s shadow war against the United States and its allies?
(Time)

- Trump May Take a Far Tougher Line against Russia ...
(Window on Eurasia)
Russian Academician Aleksey Arbato: "Trump will not begin with a hostile attitude toward Russia. He “will be open for dialogue with Moscow but he will not make any dramatic gestures” and he won’t call on Russia to “follow great ideals because he understands that Russia and America have very different ones.”

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✔ Opinion: The Man Who Would Not be President
(New York Times - Roger Cohen)
"I believe money binds Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, and Trump. Precisely how we do not know yet. But there is also a cultural aspect. Putin has set himself up as the guardian of an absolutist culture against what Russia sees as the predatory and relativist culture of the West. The Putin entourage is convinced the decadence of the West is revealed in its irreligious embrace of same-sex marriage, radical feminism, euthanasia, homosexuality and choose-your-gender bathrooms. Enter (Stephen) Bannon.”

✔ Media: Trump’s Man Stephen Bannon and ‘Breitbart' are looking to build a Trumpian media empire in Europe 
(The Daily Beast)
"Bannon's support for European far-right parties runs far deeper than his interest in Marion Maréchal-Le Pen or the National Front. He brags about his international Breitbart operation as “the platform” for the American alt-right, and has for years been thinking globally, with an affinity for the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), Alternative for Germany (AfD), and the Freedom Party in the Netherlands (PVV), all of which have earned glowing coverage on the pages of Breitbart."


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- Russia's mobilisation may prove Putin's undoing
(Raam Op Rusland - Mark Galeotti)
“… first is that there is still a sharp limitation to what this impoverished, inefficient, corrupt remnant of the USSR can do, even when relying on the executive capacities of an authoritarian to focus resources on its security sector. Second, this is no Stalinist mobilization state, not even the later Soviet one with its plans to summon millions of men to arms in time of war. Third, much of this militarization of politics has less to do with warfighting and everything to do with politics."



- How Trump Could Roll Back Obama's Russia Policies
(RFERL)



- Opinion: There’s a New Putin in Town
(Foreign Policy)
"So for a start, the Kremlin is going to lose one of its favorite tactics: namely, periodically poking the West with a stick. On Putin’s orders, the Russians have simulated nuclear attacks on Sweden, flown warplanes low over American ships, launched a kidnapping raid over the Estonian border, and generally missed few opportunities to troll the Western world and see how it responds. By demonstrating Moscow’s will and ability to break the rules, with little real consequence from Washington, the hope is that the Europeans in particular will be unnerved and divided.”



- Arvamus: Kui Trumpist saab Venemaa sõber, peab Kreml kiirelt uue vaenlase leidma
(Postimees - Andrei Kuzitškin)



- Putin’s big problem: America is no longer the enemy
(The Guardian-Uk)
"The Kremlin may struggle to adjust now there is a fellow neoconservative in the White House."



- Donald Trump’s Election Leaves Angela Merkel as the Liberal West’s Last Defender
(New York Times)



- NATO: US and Europe need each other
(The Guardian | Deutsche Welle | Reuters)
"Going it alone on defense and security is not an option for either the United States or Europe, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said in an article published on Sunday.”





- Opinion: Russia's Trumpian pipe dream
(Deutsche Welle)



- Putin spokesman calls on Trump to press NATO to withdraw from border
(AP | The Hill)




- Pro-Russian candidates win in Bulgaria and Moldova
(EU Observer)

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