Europe’s Trump challenge: Is it ready to fight Vladimir Putin alone?
(Politico Europe)
“POLITICO looked at what capabilities Europe has now, its plans for beefing them up, and the implications of a potential end to Europe’s Pax Americana — including discussion in some countries about the need for their own, independent nuclear deterrents. Let’s start with the type of scenario that keeps Europe’s strategic planners up at night.”
—
“The year is 2027. Trump is in the third year of his second presidency. Ukraine is still fighting, but Western aid has dried up and the front lines have been frozen for months. … Missiles pummel Estonia’s Ämari Air Base. Hundreds of thousands of troops in Russia’s Leningrad Military District — hardened by years of war in Ukraine and equipped with Sukhoi Su-57 stealth fighters, T-14 Armata tanks, drones, rocket and mobile artillery systems able to blast thousands of shells a day thanks to years of a war economy — smash into eastern Estonia.”
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“Within days, Russia controls eastern Estonia, home to much of the country’s ethnic Russian minority. The Kremlin declares the region has returned to the motherland and extends its nuclear umbrella over the newly conquered territories. … How likely is such a scenario?”
—
“Putin insists the idea is ludicrous: “Russia has no reason, no interest — no geopolitical interest, neither economic, political nor military — to fight with NATO countries,” he said in December. But then again, he said the same about Ukraine.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-trump-ukraine-war-russia-nato-vladimir-putin/
“What another Trump presidency would mean for NATO?” - Politico
“This year, next year, the probability of a war between Russia and NATO is very low, extremely low.” - Lithuania General Valdemaras Rupšys
Finnish 2024 Presidential Election
(Reuters | Yle)
“Up to 75 percent of voters are expected to cast ballots in the first round of Finland's presidential election on Sunday.”
—
“Finland set to pick president after 12 years of Niinisto.” - Aljazeera
“Finland presidential frontrunner says its foreign policy is ‘existential’.” - The Guardian
“Finland's presidential hopefuls vie to offer toughest stance on Russia.” - Reuters
“Advance voters set record in Finland's presidential election.” - Yle
EstoNews on-line:
https://estonewsoftheweek.blogspot.com/
EstoNews Dropbox archive:
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/1kvd04gtar6ty2b/AADCUK2J_RXcMyIYf_sjnAwoa?dl=0
Friday 26. January
Uudne tehnika tõotab leevendada Läänemere riike tabanud GPS-häirete lainet
(Novaator)
“Eesti riigilaevastik osaleb Saksamaa kosmoseagentuuri juhitud projektis, mille eesmärk on luua uudne Läänemerd kattev maapealne asukohamäärangu süsteem. Tehnoloogia tagaks laevadele mereturvalisuse olukorras, kui satelliitside, näiteks GPS, peaks mingil põhjusel katkema või seda segatakse.”
“Suured häired GPS-süsteemis ulatusid ka Eesti kohale.” - ERR
Venemaa ei suuda initsiatiivist hoolimata edu saavutada
(ERR)
“Vene relvajõud hoiavad küll viimasel ajal Ukraina sõjas initsiatiivi, aga pole sellest hoolimata erilist edu saavutanud, ütles Kaitseliidu peastaabi ülem kolonel Eero Rebo. Vene transpordilennuki Il-76 allakukkumise asjaolusid ta ei kommenteerinud, viidates, et Venemaa ei tee rahvusvaheliste lennundusintsidentide uurimisega koostööd. "Luhanski suunal on jaanuarikuu jooksul olnud varasemaga võrreldes oluliselt rohkem [Vene vägede] rünnakuid. Lisaks jalaväele on kasutatud ka rohkem soomustehnikat. Vene Föderatsiooni relvajõud hoiavad seal küll initsiatiivi, aga edenemine on olnud marginaalne.”
https://www.err.ee/1609234464/rebo-venemaa-ei-suuda-initsiatiivist-hoolimata-edu-saavutada
“Ameeriklased pidasid Nursipalus maha näidislahingu.” - Postimees
“EDF colonel: Russia's recent progress in Ukraine has been marginal.” - ERR
“Interview: Commander of French forces in Estonia Colonel Patrick Ponzoni.” - ERR
“Estonia builds up defences by strengthening its CV90 fleet.” - Shephard
NATO eksjuht: Putini panustamine Trumpi toetusele on Kremli valearvestus
(ERR)
“NATO endine peasekretär lord George Robertson ütles, et Vladimir Putini strateegia oodata Donald Trumpi naasmist Valgesse Majja on järjekordne Kremli valearvestus. Robertson tõi välja, et ametis olles Trump tegelikult suurendas USA panust NATO-sse.”
‘Palju oleks ära tulnud teha juba eile!’
(Delfi)
“Eesti armees on umbes 4600 inimest pluss 4000 püsivas valmisolekus reservisti ja 1000 NATO sõdurit. Seda on vähe. Et te mõistaksite mastaape, siis vastane koondas ainuüksi Avdijivka linna ümbrusesse 40 000-mehelise väegrupi. Rindejoone pikkus seal on kõigest 20 km.”
How to respond to Russian aggression in the Baltic Sea
(Politico Europe)
“There’s a specter haunting Europe — the Baltic Sea region to be precise. GPS jamming has been impacting parts of Sweden, Germany and Poland since just before Christmas. And in recent days, flights in the region have been targeted too. These scare tactics, perpetrated by an actor with significant GPS-jamming capabilities, are leaving the region’s governments with a tricky dilemma: How exactly do they retaliate once they’re certain who’s behind it all?”
https://www.politico.eu/article/how-to-respond-to-russian-aggression-in-the-baltic-sea/
Western Academics Are Being Targeted by Russian Intelligence
(The Moscow Times)
“The case of Dr. Vyachelsav Morozov, the professor of political science at Tartu University who was arrested by Estonian police and is now being prosecuted on charges of engaging in espionage for Russia, has brought to the fore concerns about Russian spies targeting academics and related professionals in Western countries.”
For NATO 2024 may be huge
(RFERL)
“2024 will be all about the five S's -- Sweden, succession, Steadfast Defender, spending, and summit. And possibly in that order as well. Perhaps the most imminent news could be the end of Sweden's drawn-out membership saga. Applying in the spring of 2022, most expected a quick entry later that year. But Turkey and Hungary had other plans, and while Finland joined in April last year, Stockholm had to wait. But ahead of the first NATO ministerial meeting of the year, in Brussels on February 14-15, there is genuine hope that there will be a flag-raising ceremony and Sweden will become member number 32. …”
https://www.rferl.org/a/europe-jozwiak-briefing-nato-euro-crucial-year/32786838.html
“Steadfast Defender 2024.” - NATO
Frontex to Guard Finland’s Eastern Border At Least Until Summer
(Schengen Visa Info)
“Border crossing points on the land border between Finland and Russia will remain closed until 11 February 2024.”
Russians Discover a Backdoor to Europe: the Rail Route to Kaliningrad
(CEPA)
“Growing numbers of Russians are using a loophole in the rail route from mainland Russia to Kaliningrad to enter the European Union. Lithuania is scrambling to stem the flow. Almost 14,000 people used the route to enter the bloc in 2023, a near-fivefold rise over the previous year. The sudden increase has revealed a significant gap in the regulation of the Kaliningrad transit and raises questions about security and the effectiveness of sanctions against Vladimir Putin’s regime. Russian passengers traveling across Lithuania to Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave on the Baltic coast, are able to disembark in the village of Kena and travel from there to the rest of the EU. While many have papers that would allow travel to Lithuania by other routes, the threat of Russian agents or military personnel using the railroad as a backdoor to the West should not be underestimated. …”
https://cepa.org/article/russians-discover-a-backdoor-to-europe/
Putin visited Kaliningrad, flew close to NATO territory, threatened the west
(Yahoo News | The Telegraph)
“Putin's visit to Kaliningrad was viewed by some analysts as a clear attempt to signal that the Baltic Sea is no Nato sea after Finland and Sweden applied to join NATO. It also served as a reminder to Kaliningrad residents that they are part of Russia, as well as a demonstration that Russia still has significant military assets in the exclave. … Kremlin’s spokesman claims Putin’s visit was not about “sending messages” to Nato.”
https://news.yahoo.com/putin-makes-surprise-visit-kaliningrad-080603615.html
—
“Putin issued a brazen threat to the West during trip to Kaliningrad.” - Daily Mail
“Opinion: Putin’s Kaliningrad visit wasn’t a threat to Nato.” - Spectator
Thursday 25. January
Valgevenelased ei taha Venemaa eest surra
Tetjana Fedosjuk, Diplomaatia
“Valgevenest on saanud Venemaa viies sõjaväeringkond. Valgevene majutab nüüd Vene vägesid ja Valgevene territooriumilt lastakse välja Vene rakette, mis iga päev tabavad Ukrainat. Ainus, mis veel puudub, on Valgevene relvajõudude otsene osalus Venemaa agressioonis Ukraina vastu. Miks on Lukašenka teie arvates seni sellest napilt hoidunud? Kas säärane samm on tulevikus võimalik?
—
[Belarus has become Russia's fifth military district. Belarus now hosts Russian troops, and Russian missiles are fired from Belarusian territory and hit Ukraine every day. The only thing that is still missing is the direct participation of the Belarusian armed forces in Russia's aggression against Ukraine.]
https://diplomaatia.ee/valeri-sahhastsik-valgevenelased-ei-taha-venemaa-eest-surra/
Estonian Commander-in-Chief names four factors to assess Russian threat to NATO
(New Voice of Ukraine via Yahoo)
“First, Russia must extricate itself from the war in Ukraine "by any means necessary" by withdrawing the bulk of its troops, or roughly 300,000 out of the 400,000 it has deployed.”
—
“Second, it will need time to recover or adapt. Given today's Russian military machine and the way society supports it, it will take at least a year to recover.”
—
“Third, … we have to be very vigilant because Russia may attempt to take advantage of global instability.”
—
“The fourth factor the West can still change is how well it is prepared for a possible invasion.”
https://news.yahoo.com/estonian-commander-chief-names-four-171400780.html
Ivangorod motor checkpoint at Russian-Estonian border to be closed for 2.5 years
(The Baltic Times)
“… head of the service for organization of customs control at the Russian Northwestern Customs Department Alexander Vinogradov told reporters.”
Europe ignores the barbarians at its gate
(Financial Review)
“Last week, Admiral Bob Bauer, the Dutch chairman of NATO’s military committee, warned Europe to prepare for war with Russia within 20 years – and that’s the optimistic view. Earlier in the week, Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas declared that the alliance may have only between three to five years. Ukraine is Europe’s front line of defence; if Kyiv is forced to accept a ceasefire, then the Baltic states are likely to be the Kremlin’s next target, says Kallas.
In a war of attrition, Ukraine, minus Western aid, loses.”
https://www.afr.com/world/europe/europe-ignores-the-barbarians-at-its-gate-20240122-p5ez5y
If Europe is ‘ignoring the barbarian at the gates’, what are we doing?
(Defense Connect)
“Europe’s vulnerable reality has not gone unnoticed, as many in the defence policy community have recognised the increasing vulnerability of the European powers and a severe disconnect between their repeated public commitments and their capacity to deliver. Equally, “barbarians”, mainly Putin’s Russia in this case, coupled with an increasingly belligerent and revisionist Turkey under autocrat Erdoğan, the ever-present threat of domestic radical Islamic extremists, and mounting domestic political polarisation have smelled blood in the water.”
World War III is not on the horizon
By Mark Galeotti, BNE
“It has suddenly become unexpectedly and depressingly fashionable to predict the imminence of World War III, and the westward march of Moscow’s grim legions. Most recently, German defence minister Boris Pistorius flatly asserted that, “Vladimir Putin will one day even attack a NATO country.” Not may – will. The kind of rhetoric that was such a fixture of the worst days of the Cold War is again being mobilised, albeit with ‘”authoritarianism” replacing communism. Has there suddenly been an upsurge in the potential threat from Russia and a country whose military is currently unable to master Ukraine, let alone an alliance of 31 of the richest and best-armed nations in the world? Or is there something else going on?”
https://www.intellinews.com/stolypin-no-world-war-iii-is-not-on-the-horizon-308608/
Enhanced aurora borealis forecasting service promises greater precision
(Helsinki Times)
“A significant upgrade has been made to the real-time aurora borealis (northern lights) forecasting service, enhancing the accuracy and user experience for those eager to witness this natural spectacle. The service, which has been operational for about 20 years, utilizes fluctuations in the Earth's magnetic field to predict the likelihood of aurora appearances. … These enhancements make the aurora borealis service more reliable and user-friendly, promising a better experience for enthusiasts and researchers alike. This upgrade is a significant step forward in aurora forecasting, potentially increasing the success rate for those hoping to witness one of nature's most mesmerizing phenomena.”
Wednesday 24. January
AI: Kuidas tehisaru Isamaale korraliku jõulukäru keeras
Marek Strandberg, Postimees
“Keegi tubli isamaalane andis tehismõistusele käsu maalida jõulukaart. Välja kukkus aga pigem kõhedusttekitav lugu talvisest küüditamisest, mis on üsna kaugel Eesti jõulumaastikust. Hoogsalt tehisaruga lustides lasti endale pigem jalga. 2023. aastal potsatas nii mõnegi postkasti Isamaa jõulukaart. Esimese hooga kirev ja kummaline samal ajal. Uhkusega on kaardil oleva kirja «Rõõmurohkeid jõule ja head uut aastat!» alla kirjutatud «Nõnda näeb Eesti jõulumaastikku tehisintellekt.» Aga kas tegu on üldse jõuluajaga, mida tehisaru meile kuvab? 1949. aasta märtsikuus toimunud küüditamise aegu oli ilm olnud samuti tavatult lumine. …”
https://teadus.postimees.ee/7939946/amber-kuidas-tehisaru-isamaale-korraliku-joulukaru-keeras
Hundreds in Russia engage in intelligence efforts against Estonia
(ERR)
“Russian intelligence takes a considerable interest in Estonia.”
“New Russian Disinformation Campaigns Prove the Past Is Prequel.” - Lawfare
Moscow Patriarch’s Policies Making ‘Estonian Compromise’ Impossible
By Paul Goble, Eurasia Review
“The Moscow Patriarchate’s insistence on appointing Russian citizens to head branches of the Russian Orthodox Church in former Soviet republics and the propensity of those churchmen to speak out in defense of Putin’s war in Ukraine may make what some have called “the Estonian compromise” impossible there and elsewhere. That compromise has meant that in Estonia, there are two Orthodox churches, one subordinate to Moscow and the other subordinate to the Ecumenical Patriarchate in Constantinople, an arrangement many had thought might work for other countries that emerged after the collapse of the Soviet Union. … Now, Tallinn has called all this into question.”
Estonia launched campaign to grow its international ship registry
(Trade Winds News)
“It has launched the Seafarers’ Information System and the Ship Information System, which offer digital storage for the handling of documentation to ease the bureaucratic burden on ships operating under its flag. “Digital tools, combined with a personal approach, are what differentiates Estonia,” the Tallin-based team in charge of the flag told TradeWinds. “These tools minimise the time a shipowner is in contact with Estonian Transport Administration — no delays, no waiting days for an answer. The owner has also a human contact point in the administration who deals with their issues.”
Turkish parliament approves Sweden’s membership of Nato
(The Guardian)
“After a four-hour debate, 287 of 346 MPs voted yes, 35 against and the rest abstained. Erdoğan is expected to sign the bill into law in the coming days. The Swedish prime minister, Ulf Kristersson, reacted quickly to the news, saying: “Today we are one step closer to becoming a full member of Nato. Positive that the Grand General Assembly of Türkiye has voted in favour of Sweden’s Nato accession.”
—
“Tobias Billström, Sweden’s foreign minister, said the vote was “of course good”, but that the government was now waiting for the Turkish president to sign the ratification and send it on. “Of course we are not finished with the process until it has happened, on the Turkish side,” he told Swedish broadcaster SVT.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/23/turkish-parliament-meets-vote-sweden-membership-nato
“Hungary’s Orbán faces calls from US, Europe to unblock Sweden’s NATO bid.” - Politico
Russia’s Forever War
Drones attack deep in Russia. Medvedev threatens Ukraine’s ‘existence’
(Aljazeera)
“Russia and Ukraine traded deadly aerial attacks on civilian centres in the past week of the war, but Ukraine also scored hits on military and economic infrastructure deep in the Russian heartland, extending its reach to St Petersburg for the first time.”
—
“Ukrainian military intelligence said it had struck an unspecified military target in St Petersburg on Thursday, using drones launched from Ukrainian soil.”
“Cheap but lethally accurate: how drones froze Ukraine’s frontlines.” - The Guardian
“Kyiv Raises Stakes by Expanding Appeals to Ukrainian ‘Wedges’ Inside Russia.” - By Paul Goble, Jamestown Org.
"How serious was the loss of two Russian command aircraft over the Sea of Azov?” - Novaya Gazeta
“Keeping watch along Latvia's border with Belarus.” - LSM
The Quiet Transformation of Occupied Ukraine. Russia Cements Its Conquest
(Foreign Affairs)
“While the West continues to squabble over providing further aid to Ukraine, Russia has been quietly consolidating its control over the territories it occupies in southeastern Ukraine. As the frontline stabilized in 2023, Russia remained in control of almost 18 percent of Ukrainian territory, including about 25,000 square miles of land seized since February 2022. All branches of the Russian government are involved in a costly and ambitious program to integrate these newly occupied territories into the Russian Federation—as Russia did with Crimea after it seized the peninsula in 2014. The Kremlin hopes to create facts on the ground that will be difficult for Ukraine to challenge, either by military force or in future peace talk. …”
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/quiet-transformation-occupied-ukraine
Russian Offensive Campaign
Assessment: 25. Jan. 2024
(ISW)
“Ukrainian and Russian authorities opened criminal investigations into the January 24 Russian Il-76 military transport aircraft crash in Belgorod Oblast.”
—
“The Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) reportedly conducted a successful drone strike on a Rosneft oil refinery in Tuapse, Krasnodar Krai on the night of January 24 to 25.”
—
“Russian forces are reportedly increasing their use of chemical weapons in Ukraine.”
—
“German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated that Russia’s war in Ukraine is “directed against the very existence of Ukraine as a sovereign state.”
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-25-2024
The Broken Bargain of Russian Womanhood
By Anastasia Edel, Foreign Policy)
“Despite standing to lose so much, the wives, mothers, sisters, and girlfriends of Russian soldiers have largely nodded along with the Kremlin’s moribund determination to grind down their men. They weep at makeshift memorials to Yevgeny Prigozhin, the late chief of the paramilitary Wagner Group. They show little gender allegiance to the women of their former sister republic. Some are actually proud of their “defenders,” egging them on to rape Ukrainian women should they get the chance. In packed concert halls across the country, girls sing along ecstatically to “Ya Russky” (“I am Russian”), the country’s new patriotic anthem. Their faces soften the song’s promises to “fight to the end” and “spite the whole world.” That seems to be the point.”
—
“Russian womanhood, routinely held up in the country’s lore as a paragon of strength, patience, and sacrifice, is now functionally a cover-up for the crimes of Russia’s men. Two of Russia’s most notorious propagandists, Margarita Simonyan of Russia Today and Olga Skabeyeva of the Russia-1 television channel, are women, as is Maria Zakharova, the boorish spokesperson of the Russian Foreign Ministry.”
https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/01/20/russia-women-war-ukraine-resistance-protest/
Belarusian authorities have arrested scores of people in latest crackdown
(ABCNews)
“The Viasna center said that at least 64 people were detained across Belarus on charges of “involvement in extremist groups” and “financing extremist activities,” accusations that are routinely used to target dissenters.”
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