500,000 Troop Deaths and Injuries in Russia’s War in Ukraine
(New York Times)
“Russia’s military casualties, officials said, are approaching 300,000. The number includes as many as 120,000 deaths and 170,000 to 180,000 injured troops. The Russian numbers dwarf the Ukrainian figures, which the officials put at close to 70,000 killed and 100,000 to 120,000 wounded.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/18/us/politics/ukraine-russia-war-casualties.html
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Time flies when you closely follow history in the making.
Friday 18. August
Eesti esitab Oscarile Anna Hintsi dokumentaalfilmi "Savvusanna sõsarad”
(ERR | Postimees)
“Eesti Filmi Instituudi (EFI) kokku kutsutud komisjon valis Ameerika filmikunsti ja -teaduste akadeemia parima rahvusvahelise filmi kategoorias kandideerima Anna Hintsi dokumentaalfilmi ‘Savvusanna sõsarad’."
—
Pätsi monumendi juurde asetati ENSV lipp
(Postimees)
“Politsei pressiesindaja Annika Maksimov sõnas Postimehele, et politseipatrull eemaldas lipu ning juhtumi suhtes on asjaolude väljaselgitamiseks alustatud väärteomenetlus. Pressiesindaja sõnul ei ole praegu veel teada, kas juhtum on seotud mõne aja taguse juhtumiga, kus punalipp asetati Juhan Smuuli bareljeefi juurde.”
https://www.postimees.ee/7836930/punalipp-patsi-monumendi-juurde-asetati-ensv-lipp
 |
| Postimees |
Narva volikogu toetas okupatsiooni eitamise saatel punatänavate säilitamist
(Postimees)
“Narva volikogu toetas täna otsust, millega jäetakse alles punaarmeelaste auks nimetatud tänavanimed, kuigi oli teada, et tõenäoliselt miidab need oma määrusega ära regionaalminister Madis Kallas.”
“Narva soovib jätta neljale tänavale punaarmeelaste nimed.” - ERR
City Council of Narva wants four streets to retain names of Red Army soldiers
(ERR)
“… the city council voted against renaming the streets named after Soviet heroes of the Red Army: Aleksei Yuhhanovi (the proposed new name was Väike-Rakvere), Arsenti Bastrakovi (Masina), Igor Grafovi (Madise), and Mihhail Gorbatši (Seedri). One of the main arguments was that these men did not fight against the Republic of Estonia.”
https://news.err.ee/1609066970/narva-wants-four-streets-to-retain-names-of-red-army-soldiers
What life is like in the Lithuanian Suwalki Gap
(Lithuanian Tribune)
“The most dangerous place on earth” is how a journalist from the US publication Politico, who visited Druskininkai last year, described the Suvalki corridor. On a warm summer Saturday morning, however, the towns near the Belarusian border seem to be completely calm, with the inhabitants seemingly more bored than scared, Indrė Naureckaitė is writing at the lrytas.lt news portal.”
—
“They can provoke as much as they want here – they won’t move us. They need to think about one word – what NATO means. That says it all. If the Wagner band of musicians sticks their noses into either Lithuania or Poland, they will be burned at the stake. They will not even have time to stick their nose in. We feel very confident here, believe me,” said one resident near the border with Belarus.”
https://lithuaniatribune.com/what-life-is-like-in-lithuania-suwalki-gap/
“Border guard sends extra forces to Latvia-Belarus border.” - LSM
“Anger and frustration as Lithuania moves to close Belarus border checkpoints.” - LRT
“How would NATO react if Russia seized the Suwałki Gap between Poland and Lithuania to connect Kaliningrad to Belarus?” - Novaya Gazeta
The EU met its gas storage targets three months ahead of schedule
(Politico Europe)
“The EU's reserves of natural gas hit a historic high Thursday, filling up well in advance of the winter heating season as the bloc continues its dash away from Russian energy dependence. That leaves the Kremlin scrambling to plug a gaping hole in its finances left by its decision to cut off European customers in the wake of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year.”
—
“Gas Infrastructure Europe said Thursday that member countries' gas stores are now at 90.12 percent capacity — breezing past the 90 percent filling target that Brussels is legally required to meet by November.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-russia-gas-winter-energy-nord-stream-pipeline-ukraine-war/
Germany U-turns on commitment to meet NATO spending target
(Politico)
“The German government on Wednesday stepped back at the last minute from making a legal commitment to meeting NATO’s target of spending 2 percent of GDP on defense on an annual basis … Instead, the government pledges to meet the 2 percent target on average over a five-year period, as already set out in the recently published National Security Strategy.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-defense-change-of-plan-nato-spending/
Berliin lükkas tagasi plaani täita NATO kaitsekulutuste eesmärki
(ERR)
“Valitsusametnik ütles Reutersile, et klausel, mis lubas NATO eesmärki täita, võeti uue eelarve eelnõust välja. See toimus vahetult enne seda, kui valitsus saatis eelnõu parlamenti. Selle asemel lubab valitsus saavutada kahe protsendi eesmärgi viie aasta jooksul, nagu on kirjas ka hiljuti avaldatud riiklikus julgeolekustrateegias.”
China promises to boost cooperation with Russian ally Belarus
(PBS News Hour)
“Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu on Thursday visited Belarus and said his country would increase military cooperation with Russia’s neighbor and ally, where Moscow is deploying tactical nuclear weapons.”
—
“Belarusian analyst Valery Karbalevich said the visit of the Chinese defense minister is “an important signal not only to the EU and the US, but also to Ukraine.”
—
“With this visit, China marks the scope of its military interests and shows that it is interested in building up ties with Minsk and Moscow, including military cooperation, despite the dissatisfaction of Western countries.”
Thursday 17. August
Läti tühistas Valgevene hübriidohu tõttu piirivalvurite puhkused
(ERR | Postimees)
“Läti kehtestas eelmisel nädalal tugevdatud piirivalverežiimi. Valgevenest lähtuva hübriidohu tõttu tühistas piirivalveamet piirivalvurite puhkused ja kutsub nad tööle tagasi.”
https://www.err.ee/1609064306/lati-tuhistas-valgevene-hubriidohu-tottu-piirivalvurite-puhkused
—
https://maailm.postimees.ee/7835153/lati-valgevene-piirile-viiakse-hubriidohu-tottu-lisajoude
Interview: Prime Minister Kaja Kallas
(Lowy Institute, Australia)
“On Estonia’s support for Ukraine, resisting Russia and reinforcing global democracy.”
Estonia considers limiting the voting rights of residents holding a Russian or Belarusian passport
(ERR | Meduza)
“The document says that Estonia cannot vouch for the Russian citizens’ capacity to stay free of the influence of their country of citizenship. The Russian Federal Constitution, it emphasizes, requires each Russian citizen to defend the interests of the Russian Federation. … 67,000 Russian nationals are now living in Estonia, while obliged by the Russian constitution to aid their country of citizenship “in every way.”
—
—
“Huge rise in Russian citizens seeking protection in Estonia last year.” - ERR
Russia, Belarus residents-vote-ban would affect almost 69,000 people in Estonia
(ERR)
“As of May 17, 67,774 citizens of the Russian Federation, plus 1,052 citizens of Belarus ,were registered as persons entitled to vote, ie. permanent residents, in the register. This means the proposed amendment to the law would currently affect approximately 69,000 voters, across Estonia's 79 municipalities. Voter turnout among Russian citizen voters is, however, lower than the average turnout at such elections.”
The Baltic response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
By Adam Simpson, The Interpreter
“A history of atrocities at the hands of Moscow steels the resolve of its neighbouring states.”
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/baltic-response-russia-s-invasion-ukraine
“Ukraina on võitmas sõda Venemaaga, kuid jõuludeks see läbi ei saa.” - Postimees
“Ukraine is winning the war with Russia, but it won’t be over by Christmas.” - The Times, behind paywall
Estonian Methodists leave global group after LGBT conflict
(Christian Network Europe)
“During a church meeting, 97 per cent of the attending representatives indicated their support for leaving the United Methodist Church (UMC). The reason for their leave is the progressive course the UMC seems to be taking … Even though the Estonian Methodists wanted to leave peacefully, their departure was not without tension. Some representatives of the United Methodist Church strongly opposed the regulation that the Estonian churches were allowed to keep their property, but also that they are allowed to hold conferences in the conference building of the global denomination to "set their own standards for ordination and for the solemnisation of marriage.”
—
“The Estonian churches have six months to remove the logo of the Methodist church, the cross and the flame from their buildings, websites and documents.”
https://cne.news/article/3481-estonian-methodists-leave-global-group-after-lgbt-conflict
Recent weakening of Russian ruble encourages people in eastern Estonia to shop across the border
(ERR)
“The border crossing was busy and people returning from Russia were pleased with their purchases, evening news show "Aktuaalne kaamera" (AK) reported.
"Sports shoes, all kinds of foodstuffs, for example, potato chips. We pay around €5 for a big bag of chips [in Estonia], I bought them for €1.50. Almost all food is almost twice as cheap there," Aleksei, a resident of Kohtla-Järve, told AK. Viktor, a Narva resident, said: "Sunflower oil 77 roubles, chocolate bars 70 roubles each, we pay €3 for them [here]. Eggs 56 roubles. You have to ask customs staff what you are and aren't allowed."
Estonia concerned about state of the Salacgrīva bridge, which links Estonia with Latvia
(Latvian Broadcasting)
“… on the key Via Baltica (E67) route. The bridge over the River Salaca in the town of Salacgrīva on the Via Baltica route has not seen renovation in years and vehicles can only cross it in one direction at a time to avoid overloading the aging structure. It is used by hundreds of heavy goods vehicles every day on the crucial north-south route along the Baltic Sea coast, with no realistic alternatives for express traffic between Rīga and Tallinn.”
“Eesti pärib Lätilt Salacgriva silla kohta aru.” - ERR
Finland: Construction of EU's Largest Doomsday Stockpile Gets Underway
(Newsweek | Bloomberg)
“Finland is stockpiling emergency supplies to help prepare for a potential nuclear catastrophe, in an EU-funded project spurred by the threat posed by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The Finnish interior ministry said on Wednesday that the stockpile would include protective gear, measurement equipment, medicines and vaccines for an emergency involving chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear (CBRN) threats.”
—
“Finland was given funding worth €242 million ($263 million) for the project at the start of 2023, after Janez Lenarcic, the European commissioner for crisis management, said on January 17 that the Russian invasion of Ukraine "has confirmed the need to strengthen EU CBRN preparedness."
https://www.newsweek.com/finland-nuclear-eu-cbrn-stockpile-preparation-1820441
—
“Finland Must Prepare To Defend NATO’s Longest Border With Russia.” - Real Clear Defense
Wednesday 16. August
Õppus Ussisõnad
(Kaitseministeerium)
“28. augustist 8. oktoobrini korraldavad kaitsevägi ja Kaitseliit õppuse Ussisõnad, mille käigus antakse täiendväljaõpe ligi 10 000 maakaitsestruktuuri määratud reservväelasele. Õppus Ussisõnad on suurim reservväelaste väljaõpetamisele keskenduv õppekogunemine ja osalema oodatakse ligi 10 000 reservväelast, kes määrati 2022. aasta jooksul maakaitseüksuste koosseisu.”
Exercise Ussisõnad ‘Parseltongue’
(Ministry of Defence)
“From 28 August through 8 October, the Defence Forces and the Defence League will be organising Ex. Ussisõnad, during which nearly 10,000 reservists assigned to the territorial defence structure will be given further training. Ussisõnad is the largest training exercise focused on the training of reservists, with nearly 10,000 reservists assigned to territorial defence units in 2022 expected to attend.”
Estonia prepares 10,000 personnel for largest reserve exercise in its history
(Army Tech)
“Estonian Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur visited the Southern Territorial Defence District headquarters in preparation for training exercise Ussisõnad, which will involve nearly 10,000 reservists over the course of September and early October 2023.”
https://www.army-technology.com/news/estonia-prepares-10000-personnel-for-largest-reserve-exercise/
War is moving closer to NATO’s borders
By Edward Lucas, CEPA
“The Romanian hamlet of Plauru is not the sort of place that hits the headlines. But the broken windows caused there by the recent Russian missile strike on port facilities across the Danube in Ukraine rattled nerves, not only among its few dozen inhabitants. Officials deny that a Russian drone actually crossed Romanian territory, though at least two local inhabitants insist they witnessed this. But the fact that a Russian attack caused even minor physical damage on NATO territory underlines something that should have been clear for a long time. The Kremlin does not treat NATO’s deterrence seriously. A Russian warplane flew into Danish airspace in 2020. A Russian military helicopter violated Estonian airspace last year. More recently, Belarusian helicopters have intruded into Poland. Russia and Belarus have also breached borders with weaponized migration …”
https://cepa.org/article/salami-slicing-slice-back/
“Medvedev tweets in Finnish about Finland Nato threats.” - Yle
“Estonia's largest reservist exercise starts at end of August.” - ERR
“Finnish minister: Russia has not positioned troops on Finnish border yet.” - ERR
“Poland: Russia working to destabilize Polish elections.” - Daily Beast
“Arms and support depart Estonia to bolster Ukraine’s efforts.” - Bulgarian Military
“New ambassador explains why Estonia supports Ukraine so strongly.” - Ukrinform
Latvian prime minister announces resignation
(BNN)
“On Monday, the 14th of August 2023, Prime Minister Krišjānis Kariņš (New Unity) announced that he will resign as Prime Minister.”
https://bnn-news.com/latvian-prime-minister-announces-resignation-2-248498
NATO backpedals as Ukraine fumes over land for membership gaffe
(Politico Europe)
“The controversy started Tuesday when Stian Jenssen, director of NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg’s private office, said one solution to the ongoing war could be for Ukraine to offer Russia land in return for a spot in the NATO military alliance. The comments, made during a panel debate in southern Norway and picked up by the Norwegian newspaper VG, were striking as Western allies have long emphasized the importance of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and said Kyiv should decide when and how to negotiate with Moscow.”
—
“Within hours, Ukraine was expressing outrage, diplomats were doing double takes and Moscow was putting it all through the Kremlin’s spin machine.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-ukraine-membership-cede-territory-russia/
“Stoltenbergi büroo juht: Ukraina võib saada NATO-sse aladest loobudes.” - ERR
“Nato official apologises over suggestion Ukraine could give up land for membership.” - The Guardian
- Russia’s Forever War -
The Ghost of Lawlessness
(Visegrad Insight)
“The use of Soviet flags in occupied territories is the figurative attempt to erase the last three decades. One of the first things the Russian army did during February-March 2022 on the occupied lands of Southern Ukraine, those close to Crimea and the Sea of Azov, was put red Soviet flags over the city’s major buildings.”
—
“This is an important point: the first symbols the Russians turned to embody their occupation were not Russian but Soviet. As if they were trying to refer not to the actual reality of the Russian imperial state but to the ephemeral reality of the non-existent country, the Soviet Union.”
https://visegradinsight.eu/the-ghost-of-lawlessness/
Putin Is Really Destroying Modern Russia
(RFERL)
“Anne Applebaum is a U.S. Pulitzer-Prize winning author who has written several books on Russia and the Soviet Union, including Red Famine: Stalin’s War On Ukraine.”
—
“In a recent interview with RFE/RL’s Georgian Service, Applebaum said Western resolve to aid Ukraine in its battle against invading Russian forces remains strong and said the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden has “adopted a mindset that it will be a long war.” Applebaum also predicted that Russian President Vladimir Putin will be remembered for “destroying modern Russia.”
https://www.rferl.org/a/applebaum-interview-russia-putin-history-tavberidze/32552736.html
Russian Offensive Campaign
Assessments: 16. & 17. August
(ISW)
“Vostok Battalion commander Alexander Khodakovsky stated that Russia will not be able to topple Ukraine militarily in the near term and that Russian forces are unlikely to easily occupy additional Ukrainian cities, echoing comments Prigozhin had made in April 2023. Khodakovsky concluded that Russia will likely have to come to a “truce” and that Russia may enter a phase “of neither peace nor war” with Ukraine. Khodakovsky suggested that Ukraine would be sufficiently weakened in this state of frozen conflict and that Russia would be able to exert more influence over Ukraine in such a situation than it currently can during the ”Special Military Operation.”
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-16-2023
—
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-17-2023
“Russia Has Lost Over 2,200 Tanks.” - 1945
“Ukraine Is Losing 10,000 Drones A Month To Russia.” - 1945
“45,000 Muscovites Fighting in Ukraine, Mayor Says.” - Moscow Times
“500,000 Troop Deaths and Injuries in the 18 months-long War in Ukraine.” - New York Times
“Battlefield deaths in Ukraine have risen sharply this year.” - The Guardian
“Russia is committing grave acts of ecocide in Ukraine.” - Guardian
“First ship to use Ukraine's corridor arrives in Istanbul.” - Reuters
“Why Biden Was Justified to Send Cluster Munitions to Ukraine.” - Lawfare
“Russia’s Pardoned Ex-Convicts Return Home After Fighting in Ukraine.” - Moscow Times
“Russia’s central bank makes huge interest rate hike to try to prop up falling ruble.” - AP
“Kalev Stoicescu: ukrainlastel on vastupealetungiks sobivat aega vähem kui kolm kuud.” - Postimees
“Moscow Now Bringing Treason Charges So Often That It is ‘Almost Impossible’ for Any Russian to Avoid Them.” - Paul Goble
China promises to boost cooperation with Russian ally Belarus
(PBS News Hour)
“Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu on Thursday visited Belarus and said his country would increase military cooperation with Russia’s neighbor and ally, where Moscow is deploying tactical nuclear weapons.”
—
“Belarusian analyst Valery Karbalevich said the visit of the Chinese defense minister is “an important signal not only to the EU and the US, but also to Ukraine.”
—
“With this visit, China marks the scope of its military interests and shows that it is interested in building up ties with Minsk and Moscow, including military cooperation, despite the dissatisfaction of Western countries.”
The Ukrainians Forced to Flee to Russia
By Masha Gessen, The New Yorker
“Some are brought against their will. Others are encouraged in subtler ways. But the over-all efforts seem aimed at the erasure of the Ukrainian people.”
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/08/21/the-ukrainians-forced-to-flee-to-russia
“The Ukrainian men trying to avoid conscription.” - The Guardian
Russia’s History Textbook Rewrite Is a Bid to Control the Future
(The Moscow Times | Novaya Gazeta)
“It portrays Russian history post-1945 as that of an innately great and special power betrayed by those it helped — eastern Europe and former Soviet republics — and under constant assault from the West and its collaborators inside Russia.”
—
https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2023/08/11/going-down-in-history-en
Ukraine desperate for help clearing mines
(The Guardian)
“Ukraine is now the most heavily mined country on Earth and its army is suffering from a critical shortage of men and equipment able to clear the frontlines, the country’s defence minister has said, as soldiers spoke of heavy casualties in the engineering brigades. In an urgent appeal to allies, Oleksii Reznikov told the Guardian his soldiers were unearthing five mines for every square metre in places, laid by Russian troops to try to thwart Ukraine’s counteroffensive.”
“Zelenskiy Appeals To Ukraine's Partners To Send Demining Equipment.” - RFERL
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