Kremlin Schemes Against Baltics: Lots of Delusion, Some Risk
By Marija Golubeva, CEPA
“Russia’s never-ending campaign to harm and exploit its small neighbors can also be used to understand possible weaknesses among the Baltics. Leaked Kremlin documents show that before the launch of the all-out invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin’s staff were apparently scheming to renew Russia’s diminishing soft power in the Baltic states.”
—
“None of the ideas outlined for Russian influence — political, military, economic or humanitarian — has much to show in terms of success in the short term. … The Kremlin’s hopes to stem gains in NATO’s reputation among Baltic citizens, and its presence in their countries, have proven equally unrealistic.”
https://cepa.org/article/kremlin-schemes-against-baltics-lots-of-delusion-some-risk/
Selgusid kõik Eurovisiooni finalistid, Eesti pääses edasi
(ERR)
“Neljapäeva õhtul selgusid viimased kümme Eurovisiooni finaali pääsejat. Teiste seas kindlustas koha finaalis Eestit esindav Alika Milova. Eurovisiooni finaal leiab aset laupäeval, 13. mail.”
https://menu.err.ee/1608973910/selgusid-koik-eurovisiooni-finalistid-eesti-paases-edasi
Eurovision 2023:
A guide for perplexed Americans
(Washington Post)
“The United Kingdom is hosting Eurovision, the biggest, and strangest, live music event on the planet. More people watch the competition than watch the Super Bowl. This year’s musical extravaganza is taking place in Liverpool, with a grand finale on Saturday, 13. May.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/05/10/eurovision-song-contest-2023/
“How to Stream Eurovision 2023 Online in the U.S.” - Hollywood Reporter
“Pianist and singer Alika is flying the Estonian flag at the Eurovision Song Contest.” - Eurovision, 5. May
“Eurovision 2023: How to watch and how to vote.” - Eurovision
“Elu24 Eurovisioonil ⟩ Videoreportaaž.” - Postimees
Narva Museum trolls Russians with portrait of war criminal Putin
(Estonian World Review)
“The poster was hung on the same wall as the Estonian flag. This is the place located directly opposite a large venue and a stage on the opposite side (of the river and the border – ed.)," Maria Smorzhevskih–Smirnova, the director of the Narva Museum, explained on 9 May. She added that Estonians need to remember that a full-scale war, started by Russian President Putin, is ongoing nearby.”
—
"We deemed it necessary to put up this installation and remind the public that everything has its own price," Smorzhevskih-Smirnova stated.”
https://www.eesti.ca/narva-museum-trolls-russians-with-portrait-of-war-criminal-putin/article60206
 |
| Poster of Putin covered in blood on the wall of a castle in Narva, facing Russia Photo: ERR |
Estonia rejects Russia’s demand to take down Narva Museum’s anti-Putin poster
(Postimees | Estonian World)
“The head of the Narva police station, Indrek Püvi, said that representatives of the border guards of Estonia and Russia met on the Narva border bridge at 10 AM on Tuesday. “Today’s unplanned meeting was initiated by the Russian side. Among other things, the poster installed on the wall of Narva Museum was discussed, the removal of which the Russian representatives demanded from our border guards,” Püvi said.”
—
“The officials of the Police and Border Guard Board told the Russian representatives that such a poster is not prohibited in Estonia, they base their work on Estonian laws, and Russian officials have no reason to demand the removal of the poster.”
https://news.postimees.ee/7770849/estonia-rejects-russia-s-demand-to-take-down-anti-putin-poster
—
https://estonianworld.com/security/estonia-rejects-russias-demand-to-take-down-anti-putin-poster/
“Narva vaidleb, mida teha Putinit sõjakurjategijaks nimetava plakatiga.” - ERR
“Russia Begs Estonia to Take Down Putin ‘War Criminal’ Banner on Border.” - The Daily Beast
“Russia staged Victory Day concert for Estonian Russians across the Narva River.” - Reuters
Friday 12. May
Estonia Plans a ‘Spring Storm’ to Match Russia’s Might
(Foreign Policy)
“Tapa base, Estonia’s largest, is one of the closest of any NATO member to the Russian border. In recent days, it has become a beehive of activity for Estonian, British, French, and other NATO country forces ahead of a massive military exercise involving 14,000 troops from 11 countries.”
—
“The exercise, dubbed Spring Storm, is meant to stress-test how allied militaries will work and fight together, in the (hopefully unlikely) event of any military incursion from Russia.”
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/05/11/estonia-nato-military-exercise-russia/
“Wartime composition of Estonian defense forces increased to 43,700 positions.” - Postimees
“NATO Allies Must Spend More, Faster to Beat Russia: Estonia PM.” - Newsweek
Arvamus: Venemaa jääb veel aastateks meile eksistentsiaalseks ohuks
President Alar Karis, ERR
“Kui NATO julgeolekugarantiid jäävad teostamata, tõuseb sellest kahju kogu Euroopale. … Nagu Timothy Snyder on selgitanud: lasime ekslikult hellitada mõtet, et ajalugu võib liikuda ainult ühes, liberaalse demokraatia ja rahumeelsete rahvusvaheliste suhete suunas. Nüüd oleme targemad.”
https://www.err.ee/1608976364/alar-karis-venemaa-jaab-veel-aastateks-meile-eksistentsiaalseks-ohuks
Euroopa Komisjon andis rohelise tule 953 miljoni euro tulekuks Eestisse
(Postimees)
“Täna andis Euroopa Komisjon rohelise tule Eesti muudetud taaste- ja vastupidavuskavale. Taastekava maht on 953 miljonit eurot, see makstakse välja toetusena ja see sisaldab 17 reformi ja 28 investeeringut. Eesti on lisanud oma esialgsesse taastekavva viis uut investeeringut: tervisekeskuse rajamine Viljandisse, avamere tuuleparkide arendamine, ettevõtete energiajulgeoleku suurendamine, Rail Balticu viaduktide ehitamine ja vesinikkütusel töötava saastetõrjevõimega laeva soetamine. …”
Balti riigid kiirendavad lahkumist Vene elektrivõrgust
(ERR)
“Reedel Tallinnas kohtunud Eesti, Läti ja Leedu peaminister teatasid, et võtavad suuna Vene elektrivõrgust lahkumisele ja Mandri-Euroopa võrguga liitumisele varem kui praegu kavandatud 2025. aasta lõpp. Uus tähtaeg oleneb selle tehnilistest võimalustest.”
https://www.err.ee/1608975962/balti-riigid-kiirendavad-lahkumist-vene-elektrivorgust
Grid operators plan hybrid submarine cable between Estonia and Germany
(Postimees | Industry press releases)
“In a letter of intent signed on Tuesday, German transmission system operator (TSO) 50Hertz and Estonian TSO Elering agreed on a joint hybrid submarine cable project called Baltic WindConnector in the Baltic Sea between Estonia and Germany.”
—
“The so-called Baltic WindConnector will be about 750 kilometres (466 miles) long and will have a capacity of up to 2,000 MW, according to statements by the companies. Hybrid interconnectors have a dual function of connecting offshore wind farms to the shore and linking countries to one another.”
—
—
https://www.offshorewind.biz/2023/05/10/germany-and-estonia-to-build-baltic-windconnector/\
Estonia mulls closing one of five border crossing points with Russia
(ERR)
“… as traffic has dropped significantly and relations are unlikely to improve in the next five years, Minister of Interior Lauri Läänemets (SDE) said.”
https://news.err.ee/1608974390/estonia-mulls-closing-one-border-crossing-point-with-russia
—
Poland Changes Kaliningrad's Official Name in Move Against ‘Russification'
(The Moscow Times)
“Citing a recommendation by a state commission tasked with standardizing foreign names in the Polish language, Poland's development minister Waldemar Buda said Kaliningrad would now officially be called Konigsberg.”
—
"We do not want Russification in Poland and that is why we have decided to change the name in our native language of Kaliningrad and the Kaliningrad region," Buda said in a statement on Wednesday. The historic name for the enclave bordering Poland and Lithuania will now be used in official documents and maps, a move that triggered an angry response from Russia.”
“Kaks Leedu seimiliiget tahavad lõpetada Kaliningradi nime kasutamise.” - Postimees
“Kremlin calls Polish decision to rename Kaliningrad a hostile act.” - Reuters
“United States increases its naval activity in the Baltic Sea.” - Baltic Times
Thursday 11. May
Venemaa huvi purustatud piirkondade taastamise vastu on järsult vähenenud
Teet Kalmus, Estonian World Review
“Eile leidis maailma meedias laialdast kajastamist 9. mai tähistamine Moskvas. Minu enda jaoks ei ole eriti oluline see, kui palju seal oli sõjatehnikat või inimesi, määravam on üldine tonaalsus ja ka ideoloogiline sihitus. Kui palju aastaid tagasi oligi see päev paljude venemaalaste jaoks II maailmasõja lõpu (Euroopas) tähistamine, siis viimastel aastatel on see päev rakendatud Venemaa agressiivse poliitika vankri ette ning eilne üritus oli juba peamiselt seotud praeguse Venemaa agressiooni õigustamisega. Putini retoorika oli enamuse inimeste jaoks niigi varasemast tuttav ehk siis ümberringi on ühed vaenlased kõik, kes tahtvat Venemaad olematuks muuta. …”
—
“Sõjalises plaanis röövis Putinilt aga show wagnerlaste juht Prigožin, kes oma meediakanalite kaudu levitas videot, mis on sõjaväelastele palju mõistetavam kui oli see õnnetu üritus Moskvas. … Nüüd otsustas Prigožin esimest korda selgelt minna oma jutus Putini enda vastu, rääkides mõistukõnes sit*peast vanamehest, kes võib kogu riigi nö pekki keerata.”
Russians 'Haven't Changed' Since World War II: Estonian Prime Minister
(Newsweek)
“While Ukraine's Western partners analyze Russian capabilities on display through more than one year of full-scale war, Kallas said European Union and NATO nations must also end what she called the "historical cycle" of Russian aggression against its neighbors.”
—
“I'm very surprised that they haven't changed since the Second World War," Kallas told Newsweek in an exclusive interview at Stenbock House, the official seat of the Estonian government—in Tallinn. "The way they operate, the brutality, the atrocities; it hasn't changed at all. And the question that I have in my mind is, how is that possible, really, in 2022 or 2023? But it is still so."
“Latest Ukraine satellite images reveal devastation of Russian invasion.” - Politico Europed
Latvian President Egils Levits will not be seeking a second term
(Latvian Broadcasting)
"Taking into account the currently developing de facto coalition among pro-Kremlin-oriented and oligarch-linked political forces, I have decided not to participate in the presidential elections on May 31.”
—
“As recently as April 19, Levits released a statement saying he would run for a second term – which remains on the presidential website. Now, less than a month later, he has decided the opposite. In a lengthy explanation of the U-turn on the presidential website, he said he wanted the ruling three-party coalition to agree on a common candidate that could take office without the support of what he deemed pro-Kremlin and oligarch-linked parties.”
Ukraine has proven to Russia its right to exist: an interview with Anne Applebaum
(Visegrad Insight)
“… all of the US financial and military aid given to Ukraine so far is much greater than what anybody expected at the beginning of the war, including the Ukrainians and, of course, the Russians, and maybe even including the Biden administration. This happened because Ukrainians earned their support from America by showing that they can use the weapons well, that they’re really determined to fight, and of course, thanks to their successes, first expelling the Russians from Kyiv and later liberating some of their occupied territories.”
—
“I think there’s a lot of pressure on the Ukrainians to win or to at least take back a lot of their territory over the next six months. And if that doesn’t happen, then there could be pressure on Ukraine to concede next year. …”
https://visegradinsight.eu/ukraine-an-interview-with-anne-appelbaum/
“Ukraine needs more time before its counter-offensive, says Zelenskiy.” - The Guardian
“What is the future of the war in Ukraine? NATO’s leader offers insight.” - Washington Post
Kuidas Soome peaminister Sanna Marin ja ta mees vara jagavad?
(Postimees)
“Soome peaminister Sanna Marin ja tema abikaasa Markus Räikkönen teatasid kolmapäeval, et esitavad koos Pirkanmaa ringkonnakohtule abielulahutusavalduse.”
“Finnish PM to divorce as she prepares to leave office.” - BBC
“Finnish PM Sanna Marin and Markus Räikkönen to divorce.” - Yle
Wednesday 10. May
9. mai tähistamine Tallinnas, Narvas ja Kohtla-Järvel
(ERR)
“Tallinnas tõid inimesed lilli Kaitseväe kalmistul asuva pronkssõduri juurde.”
https://www.err.ee/1608972119/galeriid-ja-video-9-mai-tahistamine-tallinnas-narvas-ja-kohtla-jarvel
“Arvamus: Venemaa elavnes eile Narva lävel, kuid see tekitas vaid häbi ja kibedust.” - Postimees
“Georgi linti kandnud mees ründas Narvas aktivisti, kes hoidis käes Ukraina lippu.” - Delphi
“Narvas trepist alla tõugatud Daniil: inimesi ärritas, et seisin Ukraina lipuga.” - Postimees
“Ukraina lipuga Daniili kivitrepist alla lükanud mees sai karistuse.” - Postimees
“Politsei piiras autode ligipääsu Narva tanki endisele asupaigale.” - ERR
“Moskva paraad oli hoiatuseks rahvale ja ähvarduseks läänele.” - Postimees
‘Western Europe wouldn’t have missed the Baltics’ – if Latvia and Estonia had failed in joining the EU
(LRT)
“Estonia was invited to start the EU accession negotiations as early as 1997, while Latvia and Lithuania had to wait until 1999. This was due to the better economic, political, and administrative situation in Estonia. According to Stefano Braghiroli, a lecturer at the Johan Skytte Institute of the University of Tartu, Estonia invested all its efforts to accelerate Euro-Atlantic integration after regaining independence.”
—
“In my opinion, the political elite in Estonia was more united and, in general, more determined to undertake reforms,” Braghiroli told LRT.lt. … But despite the efforts of all the Baltic states to catch up with EU standards, Western European countries, especially France and Germany, felt that the accession of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia to the EU could lead to even greater disagreements with Russia.”
—
“I talked to a lot of legislators, and the Baltic states were seen as problematic. Many Western European countries had to accept their EU membership, but if they hadn’t succeeded, nobody in Europe would have been too sad about it,” said Braghiroli of the University of Tartu.”
Russia installed a large “propaganda screen” aimed at Narva promenade
(BNN)
“A large screen had been installed in Russia’s Ivangorod opposite to Estonia’s Narva [across the river]. It is believed that this screen will show footage of festivities from Russia’s Victory Day celebration.”
https://bnn-news.com/russia-installs-large-propaganda-screen-aimed-at-narva-promenade-245521
Vandaalid rikkusid Sinimägedes kolm memoriaali
(ERR)
“Vandaalid rikkusid teisipäeval, 9. mail kolm erinevat memoriaali Ida-Virumaal Sinimägedes, kus 1944. aastal pidas pealetungiva Nõukogude armee vastu kaitselahinguid eestlastest koosnev Relva-SS-i 20. diviis.”
https://www.err.ee/1608972101/vandaalid-rikkusid-sinimagedes-kolm-memoriaali
Ämaris on ajutise kodu leidnud tipptasemel hävitajad
(Delfi)
“Kaitseminister Hanno Pevkur käis täna koos Ameerika Ühendriikide suursaadiku George Kentiga Ämari lennubaasis, et saada ülevaade seal viibivate varghävitajate F-22 tegevusest ja viimastel aastatel lennubaasis Ühendriikide kaasabil tehtud taristuarendustest.”
“US deploys F-22 fighters to Estonia from Poland.” - Estonian World
“F-22 Raptors arrive in Estonia to deter aggression over Baltic skies.” - Defence Blog
“U.S. Air Force F-22 Raptors deter aggression over Baltic skies.” - USAF
Eesti saadab Venemaale endiselt märkimisväärsel hulgal kaupu
(Postimees)
“Statistikaameti andmetel vähenes 2023. aasta märtsis mullusega võrreldes kaupade eksport 15 protsenti ja import 12 protsenti, esimeses kvartalis tervikuna vähenesid kaupade eksport ja import mõlemad kaheksa protsenti.
Uusküla tõi välja, et Eesti oma kaupade eksport on kasvuteel. «See sisendab kindlust, et halvim on möödumas, kui uut halba uudist välja ei ilmu,» kommenteeris ökonomist BNS-ile. Sanktsioonide taustal paistab ökonomistile imelik aga asjaolu, et Eesti saadab Venemaale endiselt märkimisväärsel hulgal kaupu.”
Over a half of Estonians support equal marriage
(BNS via Estonian World)
“The attitudes of the people of Estonia regarding the rights of LGBT people, including marriage equality, are becoming more positive year by year; over half of the Estonian people now support equal marriage, 6 % more than two years ago. Support for marriage equality is at 75 % among people aged 20-29. This is a clear message to political parties …”
https://estonianworld.com/life/over-a-half-of-estonians-support-equal-marriage/
Preparations for a war scenario in Lithuania – only on paper? Core institutions feel left in the dark
(Lithuanian Tribune)
“Preparations for a possible war seem to be limited to papers and strategies – Lithuanian schools, the country’s medical profession and even some members of the Seimas say they do not know what they should do if an aggressor attacks Lithuania.”
Ukraine Should Get Concrete Path to Join NATO, Estonia Says
(BNN Bloomberg)
“… and move beyond repeating the standing position that it’s welcome to join the bloc, according to an Estonia’s top diplomat. “It’s not enough anymore just to repeat the already existing position that Ukraine is welcomed to NATO,” Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said in an interview. “We must move forward to give a strong message” about Ukraine’s next steps when leaders gather in Vilnius this summer.”
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/ukraine-should-get-concrete-path-to-join-nato-estonia-says-1.1917243
“Popularity of EU membership remains at record-high level in Finland.” - Helsinki Times
Belarus’ Lukashenko struck down by mystery illness in Moscow
(BNE)
“… and rushed back to Belarus shortly after attending the May 9 Victory Day celebrations on Red Square in Moscow.”
- Putin’s Forever War -
Putin is fighting, and losing, his last war
By Historian Timothy Snyder
(New York Times)
“Today’s Russia issues an unending stream of nuclear threats. In the West today, unlike during the Cold War, these are discussed in psychological rather than strategic terms. How does Mr. Putin feel? How do we feel?”
—
“Americans’ fear of escalation delayed the supply of weapons that could have allowed Ukraine to win last year. One after the other, the weapons systems deemed escalatory have now been delivered, with no negative consequences. But the cost of delay can be observed in the Ukrainian territories that Russia still controls: the death pits, the torture chambers and the empty homes of kidnapped children. Tens of thousands of soldiers on both sides have unnecessarily died. In nearly 15 months of war, despite Russian nuclear propaganda and Western anxiety, there has been no use of nuclear weapons. This is an absence worthy of an explanation. Those who predicted escalation if Ukrainians resisted, if the West supplied weapons or if Russia suffered defeat have thus far been wrong. Strategic thinkers point to deterrence and note that nuclear use would not in fact bring a Russian victory. It would ensure a dramatic Western response and make Russian leaders pariahs.”
—
“But there is a deeper explanation: Russia’s nuclear talk is itself the weapon.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/09/opinion/russia-war-ukraine-nuclear.html
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment 10. May & 11. May
(ISW)
“Ukrainian forces conducted successful limited counterattacks around Bakhmut on May 9. Geolocated footage published on May 9 and 10 indicates that Ukrainian forces likely conducted successful limited counterattacks north of Khromove (immediately west of Bakhmut) …
—
“Pervasive issues with Russian combat capability, exacerbated by continued attritional assaults in the Bakhmut area, are likely considerably constraining the ability of Russian forces in this area to defend against localized Ukrainian counterattacks.”
—
“The US Department of Defense (DoD) confirmed on May 9 that Ukrainian forces successfully used the Patriot missile defense system to shoot down a Russian missile for the first time.”
—
“Ukrainian forces likely broke through some Russian lines in localized counterattacks near Bakhmut.”
—
“The deployment of low-quality Russian forces on the flanks around Bakhmut suggests that the Russian MoD has largely abandoned the aim of encircling a significant number of Ukrainian forces there.”
—
“Unnamed Kremlin sources claimed that Wagner Group Yevgeny Prigozhin’s recent rhetoric is “seriously disturbing the top leadership” of Russia. Two Kremlin sources told Russian opposition outlet Meduza that the Kremlin saw Prigozhin’s attempts to blackmail the Russian MoD on May 5 as a “serious threat” and that Prigozhin is not acting in the Kremlin’s interests.”
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-10-2023
—
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-11-2023
“Prigožin võib küll plärtsuda ja õiendada, aga ilma Kremli loata ei lähe ta Bahmutist kuhugi.” - Postimees
“Wagner chief blames Russian generals for losses suffered in Ukraine.” - The Guardian
“Putin’s Belligerence Is Rooted In Russia’s Imperial Past.” - UpNorth
“Russian parties that supported the war are losing MPs and voters.” - Riddle
“Video captured destruction of a Russian T-72B3 main battle tank.” - 1945
“Putin Has To Send ‘Museum Tanks’ To Fight In Ukraine.” - 1945
“The Kremlin is losing patience with Evgeny Prigozhin’s outbursts.” - Meduza
“America’s Unconvincing Reasons for Denying F-16s to Ukraine.” - Atlantic
“Pentagon Confirms Ukraine Shot Down Russian Kinzhal Hypersonic Missile With U.S. Patriot.” - The Aviationist
Claim: Russian Guerrillas Are Trying to Violently Overthrow Putin
(Foreign Policy)
“Roman Popkov dabbled in Russia’s far-left and far-right political scenes before devoting himself to the armed overthrow of Russian President Vladimir Putin in the name of democracy. In 2011, he moved to Kyiv after getting imprisoned in Russia for taking part in anti-Putin protests. His greatest success may have come last month, on April 2, when a noted Russian propagandist, Vladlen Tatarsky, was killed in a St. Petersburg cafe. Popkov is rumored to have recruited the assassin on behalf of Ukraine’s intelligence service and to have helped plan the killing.”
—
“In a lengthy chat with Foreign Policy via encrypted messaging, … Popkov expressed his conviction that a Russian-led guerrilla movement will be the only way to dispose of Putin, dismissing the nonviolent protestations of Russian exiles in Europe as ineffective, short-sighted, and even immoral.”
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/05/10/russian-guerrillas-are-trying-to-violently-overthrow-putin/
For Russians it’s the 1990s all over again
(Foreign Policy)
“Every day, there are reports about Ukraine veterans engaged in violence—randomly attacking passersby, stabbing their wife to death in a drunken frenzy in front of their children, or other crimes. Others didn’t need a war to be introduced to wanton criminality: Some of Wagner’s most notorious outlaws, convicted for murders and mutilations of incomprehensible cruelty, have been released back into society as the promised reward for shooting Ukrainians, and a few have almost immediately gone on new killing rampages. Just like in the 1990s, there seems to be no plan for any psychological support for soldiers returning from an active war zone. Just like back then, they are mostly left to their own devices. A flood of firearms allegedly being smuggled from Ukraine back to Russia by returning troops isn’t helping to curb outbursts of spontaneous violence.”
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/05/09/russia-ukraine-war-putin-casualties-1990s/
Remembrance of a Stolen Crimea
By Mark Temnycky, CEPA
“Crimean Tatars are the victims of Russia’s widely believed myth that the peninsula belongs to Moscow. It doesn’t. … The Crimean peninsula has been the scene of Tatar persecution and population removal ever since Russia’s first annexation in 1783. In her book Claiming Crimea, Harvard University historian Kelly O’Neill notes that the Crimean peninsula was once a flourishing example of ethnic Tatar society. During the early to mid-19th century, more than 80% of the peninsula’s population comprised ethnic Tatars. … By the 1920s, Russians became the largest ethnic group.”
—
“The story is critical for Tatars but it also represents a warning well understood by Ukraine, which now marks May 18 as the Day of Commemoration of Victims of the Genocide of the Crimean Tatars. Whoever runs the Kremlin — Imperial Russia, the Soviet Union, or the Russian Federation — the same tactics of cleansing old populations and supplanting them with Russians are employed regardless. Ukraine knows this simply by observing the treatment of its own people in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine. …”
https://cepa.org/article/remembrance-of-a-stolen-crimea/
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