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18 October, 2019


Ukrainians Blame Trump for ‘Capitulation’ in the War With Russia


__________

Friday 18. October
__________


Ukrainians Blame Trump for ‘Capitulation’ in the War With Russia
by Anna Nemtsova, The Daily Beast
“Protests spread across the country after President Zelensky accepted terms that could lead to the permanent separation of eastern Ukraine.”
“Importantly, (Ukrainian) people believe the games that Trump and his attorney Rudolph Giuliani have been playing with Ukraine have led to a sellout of Russian-annexed Crimea and the embattled Donbas region of Eastern Ukraine.”
“Protests by war veterans, nationalists and pro-European integration groups began just hours after a representative of Ukraine, former President Leonid Kuchma, signed a letter in Minsk, Belarus on October 1 addressed to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) confirming the so-called Steinmeier Formula, named for a former German president.”
— 
“This opens the way for snap elections in the self-proclaimed Russian-backed separatist republics of Luhansk and Donetsk, but makes no mention of withdrawal by pro-Russian military forces. It doesn’t talk about Ukraine regaining control of the nearly 400 kilometer (250 mile) border with Russia. Discussion of Crimea is left for some later date.”



NATO kollektiivkaitse toimib Türgi rünnakust hoolimata
(Postimees)
“Välisminister Urmas Reinsalu arutas kohtumisel NATO peasekretär Jens Stoltenbergiga olukorda Süürias, Ukraina toetamist, transatlantilist koostööd ning eelseisvat NATO liidrite kohtumist.”



Kaljulaid: Estonia could be catalyst on climate change
(Postimees)
“Next to denial of climate change, there’s a new form of escapism where people say that nothing can be done anymore, we as humans are too small to deal with the consequences of our actions, Kaljulaid said, adding that fortunately there is a way out. She said the European Union’s climate neutrality goal for 2050 means that the EU as the world’s biggest single market is prepared to impose necessary market regulations on itself.”





Kagupiiril harjutati massilise sisserände lahendamist
(Lõuna Leht)
“Koidula raudteepiiripunktis toimus eile suurõppus HotSpot2019, kus ligi 400 ametnikku harjutas tegutsemist massilise sisserände korral kagupiiri lähedale loodud vastuvõtupunktis.”



EL-i liidrid kiitsid Brexiti-leppe heaks
(ERR)
“Euroopa Ülemkogu alalise eesistuja büroo kirjutas Twitteris, et liidrid andsid oma heakskiidu avaldusele Ühendkuningriigi lahkumisest Euroopa Liidust. Nüüd läheb lepe ametlikult Briti parlamendile ratifitseerimiseks.”







Nordic ideals of Estonia and Finland
by Kristi Raik, ICDS
“Finland joined Nordic cooperation in the 1930s and has valued being part of the Nordic countries ever since. Estonia has striven to be a member of the prestigious Nordic club since the 1990s.”



Turkish Embassy in Tallinn under additional surveillance by police
(ERR)
“… in connection with the armed conflict in Syria, which the embassy says is a preventive measure.”



Estonian officials reviewing files of 40 Syrians in Turkey
(ERR)
“… to determine which of them may qualify for relocation to Estonia.”



No more "non-citizens" to be born in Latvia from 2020
(Latvian Broadcasting)
“From January 1, children born in Latvia will receive either Latvian citizenship or citizenship of another country if both parents agree on that other citizenship. The default will be Latvian citizenship for all children born to Latvia-resident parents.



Hackers fake press release about Lithuania asking US to move nuclear weapons to the country
(Delfi-Lithuania)
"The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania would like to inform you that the ministry's Communication and Cultural Diplomacy Department did not issue the press release of 18 October about an intention to build a US military base in Lithuania," the ministry said in a statement on Friday.”





__________

Thursday 17. October
__________


Mart Helme väitel on NATO ajutiselt paralüseeritud
(ERR)
“Ameerika Ühendriikide vägede väljaviimine Süüriast ja Türgi poolt sõjategevuse alustamine tähendab siseminister Mart Helme sõnul, et NATO on praegu paralüseeritud. "Ajutiselt on NATO paralüseeritud ja meie jaoks tähendab see keerulist probleemi.”



500 Eesti kaarti, mille olemasolust sa tõenäoliselt midagi ei teadnud
(Novaator)
“Ligi 500 Eesti kaarti köitis rahvusatlaseks geograaf Taavi Pae, kellele oli abiks terve Tartu Ülikooli geograafia osakond ja kaardifirma Regio. See on kingitus Eesti riigi, rahvusülikooli ja eestikeelse geograafia 100. sünnipäevaks. Ligi pooltuhat kaarti jaotuvad 36 teema vahel, esitades Eesti arengut nii vanade kui uute kaunilt kujundatud kaartidega. Atlas on abiks kõigile teadmishuvilistele oma kodumaa tundmaõppimisel ning näitab kartograafia võimalusi nähtuste kirjeldamisel.”



How Europe can stand up for itself in the next five years
by Carl Bildt and Mark Leonard
(ECFR - July 2019)
“The last five years have not been kind to the European Union’s foreign policy. The EU has been less relevant, less active, and less united than was hoped in the heady days after the Lisbon Treaty came into force in 2010. The next five years might be harder still: the world is well on its way towards a new order based on geopolitical competition and the weaponisation of global economic, cultural, and even climate linkages. As the international situation descends into a miasma of geopolitical competition, Europeans are in danger of becoming hapless playthings in a tussle for pre-eminence between China, Russia, and the United States.”
“There is nothing inevitable about this scenario. Europeans have the power to take their destiny into their own hands. …”



Riik tahab ENSV tippjuhtide puhkekompleksi kaitse alla võtta
(ERR)
“Andropoffi villa nime all tuntud endine ENSV tippjuhtide puhkekompleks Pärnumaal on muinsuskaitseameti hinnangul arhitektuurselt kõrgetasemeline ja Eesti ajaloos märgilise tähtsusega ning amet soovitab kultuuriministril selle kuulutada kultuurimälestiseks. Hoonete omanikud on kompleksi kaitse alla võtmisele vastu.”

State wants to protect the ‘Villa Andropoff’ resort complex
(ERR)
“The proposal for the protection of the complex, near Pärnu, was made by the National Heritage Board after they mapped and analyzed valuable Estonian 20th-century architecture (1870–1991) in 2012.”



Lithuania and Russia prepare to exchange captured spies
(UAWire)
“Lithuania will hand over Nikolai Filipchenko, a Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) agent who was convicted two years ago. In turn, Russia will release the Lithuanian citizens Yevgeny Mataitis and Aristidas Tamosaitis. The exchange agreement also includes a Norwegian citizen who was convicted in Russia and one other Russian citizen.”







NATO Allies Need to Come to Terms With Offensive Cyber Operations
(Lawfare)
“Allies do not agree on the appropriate procedures and boundaries for offensive cyber operations. More specifically, there is no agreement on when military cyber organizations can gain access to systems and networks in allied territory to disrupt adversarial activity. … NATO allies should establish memoranda of understanding on offensive cyber effects operations in systems or networks based in allied territory.”



Many ‘Deep People’ of Belarus Favor Union with Russia, Especially Those in Eastern Regions
by Paul Goble
“Opinion leaders in Belarus whether they support Alyaksandr Lukashenka or oppose him are overwhelmingly against the closer integration or union of their country and the Russian Federation … the so-called “deep people” of that country, and especially those in the eastern portions of Belarus, are overwhelmingly in favor of having the two countries re-combined even though their views at odds with the regime …”



Russia Gloats Over Putin’s ‘Victory’
by Anna Nemtsova - Daily Beast
“It’s been half a century since Moscow could feel this smug. “The last time Soviet state officials entered American army bases was in Vietnam,”  independent military analyst Alexander Golts told The Daily Beast. “When various Russian publications describe Washington as 'our enemy,' and when Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the General Staff, tells us there is no peace, just different forms of war, the Russian military taking over an American base does look like a victory.”




__________

Wednesday 16. October
__________


Every US ally now fears betrayal like the Kurds
by Edward Lucas - The Times, Uk
“Flattery, not loyalty, is the main currency now for America’s friends. Past sacrifice counts for nothing. The mainly Kurdish Syrian Defence Forces lost about 11,000 fighters battling Islamic State alongside US forces (who lost five people). But President Trump is indifferent to that, instead issuing a nonsensical rebuke that the Kurds did not take part in the Normandy landings …”
“Worse, friends and foes alike will not forget the betrayal of the Kurds. Why should any ally now trust the US? Why should Russia hold back in its war in Ukraine, or in menacing other small countries on its borders: non-Nato Finland and Sweden, or Nato members such as Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania? It does not help if you have shed blood in US-led wars in faraway Afghanistan or Iraq. The president is not interested in what you did for him lately. Now is what matters.”



The Riga Test 2019
by Julian Lindley-French
“America’s withdrawal from Syria has revealed once and for all the complete absence of European strategic responsibility and any meaningful capability even in a region the fate of which has dire implications for all Europeans.”









Entrepreneurs rank Tallinn as Europe’s 9th leading start-up hub
(Emerging Europe)
“In its latest report looking the development of start-up ecosystems and founder mobility in Europe, Startup Heatmap Europe reveals that the Estonian capital now ranks ninth amongst start-up founders in Europe who were asked the question: “Where would you set up your company if you could start again tomorrow?”



Helsinki, Tallinn plan combination travel card by 2021
(Yle)
“The combination service will initially be available as an app while a travel card will be introduced later on. … The technical implementation of the Estonian cards is more modern, so Tallinn public transportation officials will have to wait for HSL to catch up and design a card that works according to the same logic.”



Massive Nuclear War Games Start in Russian Arctic
(The Moscow Times)
“Swathes of Russia's artctic seas are closed off for huge nuclear war games taking place this week. Five submarines, more than 100 aircraft, 200 missile launchers and 12,000 Russian troops will be taking part in the exercise, the Defence Ministry said Monday — the latest major drill testing the readiness of Russia’s strategic nuclear forces.” 



The Demolition of U.S. Diplomacy
by William J. Burns - Foreign Affairs
“That Senator McCarthy’s chief counsel, Roy Cohn, was also Donald Trump’s lawyer and mentor is one of history’s sad ironies. Trump’s scorched-earth tactics, casual relationship with truth, and contempt for career public service bear more than a passing resemblance to the playbook that Cohn wrote for McCarthy.”





__________

Tuesday 15. October
__________


Kaljulaid kutsus Aderi, Niinistö ja Putini Tartusse
(Pealinn)
“President Kersti Kaljulaid kutsus Ungari presidendi János Áderi, Soome presidendi Sauli Niinistö ja Venemaa presidendi Vladimir Putini suvel Tartus toimuvale VIII soome-ugri rahvaste maailmakongressile.”



Huawei lashes out at Estonia for ‘unfounded’ security claims
(Washington Post | Baltic Times | Japan Times)
“Estonian media reported in September that the small country, which is among Europe’s most wired and technologically advanced nations, is set to restrict the use of equipment and technology from Huawei in its government sector. It cited security concerns and recommendations by the United States, a key NATO ally, as the main reasons for the decision.”



Kaitseministeerium hakkab Võrumaal Keretü sood taastama
(Lõuna Leht)
“Soo taastatakse väljaõppetingimuste loomisega kaasneva võimaliku mõju kaitstavatele liikidele ja looduskeskkonnale vähendamiseks. Taastamisala on ligikaudu 600 hektarit, moodustades Nursipalu  harjutusvälja territooriumist umbes viiendiku. Kaitseminister Jüri Luige sõnul on oluline, et riigikaitse arendamisel panustataks loodusliku elurikkuse säilitamisse.”



Erzyan Elder Says Estonia a Model for His Nation
by Paul Goble
“… yet another indication that for the Finno-Ugric nations within the borders of the Russian Federation, Estonia has overtaken Finland and Hungary as the nation these peoples look to.”



Hundreds Of Viking Sword Fragments Discovered In Estonia
(Forbes | ERR)
“In two locations near Estonia’s northern coast, archaeologists uncovered fragments of about 100 swords that date back to the Viking Age. The two sites–located just 80 meters apart–were close to the Estonian capital Tallinn. … the fragments “were found in the territory of the ancient Estonian county of Ravala, late last autumn.”

“The swords date from the middle of the 10th century and are probably cenotaphs, grave markers dedicated to people buried elsewhere.”



Tallinn University targeted by Russian propaganda
(Postimees)
“Russian propaganda reporters posed as LGBT activists to do a fake story about how Tallinn University teaches theoretical and practical aspects of gay sex.”



Trump’s moves in Ukraine and Syria have a common denominator: Both help Russia
(Washington Post)
“In each case, President Trump has taken action that has had the effect of helping the authoritarian leader of Russia. … Russian forces are now operating between the Turkish and Syrian militaries, helping to fulfill Moscow’s main aim of shoring up its alliance with Syria and the Russian military port housed there — an outcome Russian President Vladi­mir Putin has sought for years.”
“And without lifting a finger, Putin was able to extend leverage over Ukraine, the fragile democratic neighbor he would like to control more directly, as a result of Trump’s treatment of the country’s popular new leader.”
“Because of his weird desire to please Vladimir Putin, Trump keeps doing things that are not in our interest,” said Evelyn Farkas, a former senior Pentagon official responsible for Russia and Ukraine during the Obama administration who has been critical of Trump.”



State putting up €22 million for new ERR TV house
(ERR)
“The new TV house would replace the current facilities at Gonsiori 27/Faehlmanni 12, which critics say fails to meet safety requirements, and is energy-inefficient, in addtion to being somewhat dilapidated.”



NATO Needs a Multinational Amphibious Task Force
(U.S. Naval Institute)

In The Opening Days Of War, Let The Army Lead On Targeting
(War on the Rocks)



Continued Brexit uncertainty for Finns in UK
(News Now Finland)
“Whether they want it or not, the rules for Finnish people living in the UK are changing. The security minister Brandon Lewis says EU citizens without settled status will face deportation by 2021. Out of some 20,000 Finns living in the UK, only 2,800 have applied for the scheme so far.”




Putin changes channel on Ukraine
(Politico-Europe)
“… Russian President Vladimir Putin declared this month that Kremlin-funded television channels should give Ukraine a break - it was seen by many as something of a stand-down in his country’s conflict with Kyiv.
“We shouldn’t paint our closest neighbor, this fraternal nation ... in an unflattering light,” Putin told the Valdai discussion club, an annual gathering of Russian and Western foreign policy experts. “This is wrong.” He admitted that there is “something lacking” in Russian state television’s coverage of Ukraine.”



Protests against Zelenskyy’s peace plan for Donbas continue as 12,000 march in Kyiv
(Euromaidan)
“On 14 October, anti-Steinmeier protests termed “No to capitulation” were held in Kyiv but with the difference that they were organized not by the broad civic coalition “Movement against capitulation” but veteran organizations, nationalistic parties, and an NGO linked to Petro Poroshenko’s European Solidarity party.”



30 years after communism, eastern Europe divided on democracy's impact
(The Guardian)
“A Pew Research Center survey of 17 countries, including 14 EU member states, found that while most people in central and eastern Europe generally embraced democracy and the market economy, support was far from uniformly strong.”



Researchers find just two plague strains wiped out 30%-60% of Europe
(Arstechnica)
“The Black Death ravaged medieval Western Europe, wiping out roughly one-third of the population. Now researchers have traced the genetic history of the bacterium believed to be behind the plague in a recent paper published in Nature Communications. They found that one strain seemed to be the ancestor of all the strains that came after it, indicating that the pandemic spread from a single entry point into Europe from the East—specifically, a Russian town called Laishevo.”




______________
________
__


11 October, 2019


Ukraine worries about being left alone to deal with Russia, while US focuses on impeachment
(PRI)
“What is happening now, everybody focused on the United States and Ukraine and Ukrainian reputation, I would say, a bit undermined. That's why, if we are going to lose a friendship and support of United States, of course for Putin it would be the main victory. He is gaining a lot from this situation. I think like he sitting now in the Kremlin and drinking champagne when you have the scandal in United States and we don't know what will happen in the next days.” - Olena Sotnyk, a member of Ukraine's parliament until July.





Ukraine's Zelenskiy Gambles On Russia Peace Push Without U.S. Help
(NPR)
“When President Trump held his first meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy at the United Nations last month, one offhand remark by the U.S. president stood out to many Ukrainians.”
"I really hope that you and President Putin get together and can solve your problem. That would be a tremendous achievement. And I know you're trying to do that,” Trump had said.
“In just a couple of sentences, Trump dashed Ukrainian hopes of more active U.S. support in securing a durable peace with Moscow.”





Zelenski: pean Putiniga kohtuma, kuid esialgu Normandia formaadis
(ERR)
“Zelenski märkis, et tal on Normandia neliku liidrite kohtumise võimalikud kuupäevad, kuid kohtumise üle tuleb veel Saksamaa ja Prantsusmaaga läbi rääkida, kes need kooskõlastavad ja Venemaale välja pakuvad.”





Ukrainian opposition to “Steinmeier formula” capitulation is nationwide
by Paul Goble - Euromaidan
“While the protest in Kyiv not unexpectedly attracted the most attention, the fact that Ukrainians came out in more than 30 cities across their country may be more important. On the one hand, and in sharp contrast to Russian protests, it shows that protests in Ukraine can “go national” very fast.”




“A Formula For Extortion.” - Brian Whitmore, CEPA



Is Putin winning the war in Ukraine?
(The Spectator)
“The ‘Steinmeier Formula’ may bring peace to Ukraine but it will be at the cost of the country’s sovereignty for years to come. The assurances needed for the formula to work in Ukraine’s favour are impossible to achieve: in the separatist-held areas elections can never be truly ‘free’ because for the past five years being vocally pro-Ukrainian could lead to you being tied up in a basement.”
“When you watch the coverage on Russian state TV, the aims of the Kremlin are laid bare. ‘This is a chance to create a new, more viable model for the Ukrainian state: a federative Ukraine,’ says the propaganda peddler Dmitry Kiselyov on his weekly two-hour spin show on Sunday night. The modern Ukraine that emerged in 1991 was apparently not ‘viable’ in the first place. And now – after five years of war, Crimea seized and 13,000 dead – Russia finally has a chance to finish the job and ‘fix’ Ukraine by legitimising its bandit proxies in the east of the country.”







Zelensky’s Acceptance of Steinmeier Plan has Two Possible Consequences, Both Disastrous for Ukraine
by Paul Goble - Window on Eurasia
“… the first possible scenario will include “the conduct of imitations of elections in the region under the sound of automatic weapons fire from Russian forces and local separatists under the complete control of the occupation administration”
The second scenario … Ukrainian officials will supervise the elections and will try to cleanse the Donbass from the armed formations of pro-Russian forces. But they will hardly be successful since local separatists and even Russian soldiers will easily hide among the peaceful residents.”





















President Zelenskyy is deceiving himself and Ukrainian people
(Euromaidan)
“Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy should understand that he is not a great operator who tomorrow will deceive Putin and everyone else, but just a target of a seasoned KGB officer who is using his own ego to destroy Ukraine.”





Russia Entraps Ukraine’s President in the Steinmeier Formula
(Jamestown Org.)
“Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has yielded to Russia in accepting the Steinmeier Formula, a procedure for implementing the Minsk “accords” on Russian-defined terms … Ukraine had resisted this formula ever since 2015, when Germany’s then–minister of foreign affairs, Frank-Walter Steinmeier (currently head of state), proposed it and Russia embraced it. Zelenskyy has now accepted it in hopes of inducing Russian President Vladimir Putin to “end the war” in short order.”



Ukrainian protesters accused Zelenskiy of surrendering to Russia
(Deutsche Welle | Euromaidan Press)
“Thousands of protesters rallied in the capital of Ukraine on Sunday to protest President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's plan to allow local elections to take place in the separatist east. Zelenskiy said the step was needed to revive stalled peace talks on the contested region, which has been plagued by five years of violent conflict between pro-Russian separatists and Ukrainian government troops. But protesters slammed the president's plan as a concession to Russia. 
In Kyiv, the rally gathered some 10,000 people, making it arguably the largest protest since the times of the Euromaidan Revolution of 2013-2014.”







Ukraine's Frontline Children
(RFERL)
“Psychologist Lyudmyla Romanenko says the conflict has left children in the region and their parents emotionally “frozen." Romanenko says this is a classic sign of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), which comes from being overwhelmed by deep psychological trauma. More than 13,000 people have been killed in eastern Ukraine since 2014, when fighting broke out between government forces and Russia-backed separatists. Parents in Popasna say they struggle to give their children love, warmth, and a sense of security. …”



















__________

Friday 11. October
__________


Eestisse saabus NATO miinitõrjegrupp
(Postimees | ERR)
“… mis peatub nädalavahetusel Tallinna sadamates ja alustab esmaspäeval koos Eesti mereväega ligi kaks nädalat kestvat miinitõrjeoperatsiooni Eesti vetes.”



Naftaajastu lõpp tabas Tallinna Sadamat ootamatult
(Ärileht)
“Kolmandas kvartalis lausa dramaatiliselt naftatoodete transiiti kaotanud Tallinna Sadam loodab kaubavedude mahu teiste artiklite abil praegusel tasemel säilitada.”



Estonia Casts Doubts Over World’s Longest Undersea Rail Tunnel
(Bloomberg)
“While Estonia “supports the idea of a Tallinn-Helsinki tunnel that would be connected to the future Rail Baltic railway,” doubts linger over the estimated passenger and freight numbers, the government said. In addition, the project’s tight timetable is “not feasible.”





EU citizens without UK settled status to be deported due to Brexit
(Euronews)
“EU citizens in the UK have until the end of 2020 to register for settled status — which will grant them the same rights they currently enjoy — in the event Britain crashed out of the bloc without a deal. If an agreement is found, they will have until June 30, 2021.”





More than 5,000 Estonians apply to stay in UK after Brexit
(ERR)
“… in total, 5,300 Estonians have applied for the scheme, 1,300 of those applications were made in the month of September.”



5,300 eestlast on esitanud taotluse jääda pärast Brexitit Ühendkuningriiki
(ERR)
“Ei ole täpselt teada, kui palju Eesti kodanikke kokku Ühendkuningriigis elab ning kui paljusid mõjutab viisavaba liikumise lõppemine. Eesti võimude andmeil elab Ühendkuningriigi umbes 15 000 eestlast, kuid nende seas võivad olla ka topeltkodakondsusega inimesed või need, kellel juba on alaline elamisluba.”



The Breakaways: A Retrospective On The Baltic Road To NATO
(War on the Rocks)
“In 2001, during a radio interview with National Public Radio, when asked if he opposed the admission of the three Baltic Republics into NATO Russian President Vladimir Putin responded that the issue could not be summed up in “a yes or a no.” He later added that “we cannot forbid people to make certain choices if they want to increase the security of their nations in a particular way.” In another appearance, Putin declared that Baltic membership was “no tragedy” for Russia. These statements clearly were not a ringing endorsement. However, by historical standards, this was the least public resistance put up by the head of the Russian state. Alexander Vershbow, U.S. Ambassador to Moscow at a time of NATO enlargement, insists that he heard few complaints from the Russian side when the Baltics formally joined the alliance.



Transcript: A 2001 NPR interview with Vladimir Putin
(NPR)





__________

Thursday 10. October
__________


Government does not have data on how many Estonians live abroad
(ERR)
“… and recently closed an office which kept these records.”



Kremli meedia nimetas Tallinna TV sulgemist russofoobiaks
(Propastop)
“1. oktoobril pandi Tallinna linnapea Mihhail Kõlvarti otsusega kinni Tallinna televisioon (TTV). Sulgemise põhjuseks on kanali suured kulud ja madalad reitingud, aastas neelas kanal 4,5 mln eurot linna raha ja selle vaatamisaja osakaal Kantar Emori andmetel augustis 2019 oli 1,3%.”



Kremlin media called the closing of Tallinn TV Russophobic
“On October 1, Tallinn television (TTV) was closed by decision of the Mayor of Tallinn, Mikhail Kõlvart. The closure was due to the channel’s high costs and low ratings, with the city absorbing 4.5 million € in costs per year with according to Kantar Emor’s analysis only a share of viewers in August 2019 of 1.3%.”





 The Growing Importance of Belarus on NATO’s Baltic Flank
(Jamestown Org. - PDF)
“A variety of strategic issues explain why Belarus matters to NATO and more specifically to the United States. First and foremost, Belarus is a strategically important neighbor of Ukraine due to its unique geography bordering Russia and several NATO member states in the Baltic. The Russian annexation of Crimea in February 2014 and the invasion of eastern Ukraine in August 2014 has dramatically altered how Belarus and Russia interact with one another.”





Brexit could end up costing Estonian businesses
(Postimees)
“The Tax and Customs Board urges Estonian companies to prepare for a hard Brexit that would bring customs fees and new certificates.”





Middle Powers to the Rescue?
(SAIS Review)
“For seven decades, the United States has prided itself in being a reliable and committed NATO partner, willing to protect all allies at all times. Today such assurances no longer appear rock-solid. … But just as the United States sows doubt about its international treaty obligations, middle powers such as Canada, Germany, and the United Kingdom have banded together to bolster NATO’s eastern flank.”
“History tells us that one need not be a major power to play a positive role in the Baltics. … it was Canada and not the United States that first dared to officially accept Baltic declarations of independence. America ended up being 34th on this list.”

As Donald Trump undermines NATO, what can Canada do?
(Macleans - June 2018)
“Everything hinges on Trump getting around to deciding whose side he’s on, and it’s in the Baltic States and Poland that NATO’s future hangs in the balance. … It’s as though history is marching backwards, with Putin leading the way. Putin has been explicitly nostalgic about the days of the Soviet Union, and has gone so far as to defend the Molotov-Ribbentrop alliance between Nazi Germany and Soviet Russia.”









__________

Wednesday 9. October
__________


Estonia will not accept asylum seekers from Ukraine: Helme
(UNIAN | Postimees)
“Estonian Interior Minister Mart Helme has said Estonia will not accept asylum seekers, as the country has enough problems with immigrants coming from Ukraine. At a meeting of interior ministers in Luxembourg on Tuesday, he said Estonia was currently facing very strong immigration pressure from former Soviet Union countries …”





Estonia and Czech Republic most competitive economies in emerging Europe
(Emerging Europe)
“… both countries scored 70.9/100, placing them 31st and 32nd on a global list of 141 economies.”



Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu: Russia's Next Leader?
by Mark Galeotti - Moscow Times
“For the first time in his seven years as Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu gave a lengthy interview to a mainstream Russian newspaper. We should pay attention.”



Defence Minister Shoigu Sells Russia’s Military ‘Success Story’
by Kalev Stoicescu - ICDS
“On 22 September 2019, the Russian newspaper “Moskovskij Komsomolets” (MK) published an unprecedented interview with Sergei Shoigu in what was his first public discussion in the seven years since he became Russia’s Minister of Defence. This interview clearly signified that the Kremlin needs to actively sell – both at home and abroad – the self-proclaimed success story of Russia’s military reforms and modernization efforts. By painting the picture of a state-of-the art military, the Kremlin is attempting to convince Russian taxpayers and pensioners that the country’s enormous defence (and security) budget is money well spent on cutting-edge military technology and weapons.”



Russian cyber criminals offer fake news campaigns to companies worldwide
(.coda)
“As governments across the world battle massive disinformation campaigns on social media and elsewhere, cyber criminals seem to have discovered that there’s quite a lot of money to be made in the corporate world as well.”
“Recorded Future’s Insikt Group research team found that Russian-speaking groups are advertising their disinformation campaigns services across Eastern Europe …”



Magazine aimed at MEPs 'filled with pro-Russia content'
(The Guardian | Deutsche Welle)
“The online magazine claims to have staff operating in Brussels but the taskforce found it only had a mailbox address and none of its editors were on LinkedIn or Twitter. The site’s four Facebook page administrators are said to be situated in India.”



Poland’s Democracy Is in Danger
(The Atlantic)
“The country’s upcoming elections are crucial. And the United States is on the wrong side of the fight.”



Belarus Remains ‘at Greatest Risk’ of Russian Annexation
(Window on Eurasia)
“It isn’t a member of NATO or another military alliance and it lacks its own effective defense. Moreover, the question arises as to what NATO would do or whether it would do anything if Belarus were subject to attack and annexation. Moscow could likely achieve its goal by decapitating the regime in Minsk. … The system would be open for destruction and occupation.”










__________

Tuesday 8. October
__________


Claim: Top Secret Russian Unit Seeks to Destabilize Europe
(New York Times)
“The purpose of Unit 29155, which has not been previously reported, underscores the degree to which the Russian president, Vladimir V. Putin, is actively fighting the West with his brand of so-called hybrid warfare — a blend of propaganda, hacking attacks and disinformation — as well as open military confrontation.”
“I think we had forgotten how organically ruthless the Russians could be,” said Peter Zwack, a retired military intelligence officer and former defense attaché at the United States Embassy in Moscow, who said he was not aware of the unit’s existence.”
“That kind of intelligence operation has become part of the psychological warfare,” said Eerik-Niiles Kross, a former intelligence chief in Estonia. “It’s not that they have become that much more aggressive. They want to be felt. It’s part of the game.”







New IEA policy review offers recommendations for Estonia’s energy transition
(Modern Diplomacy)
“Estonia is on the brink of a major energy transition that will involve a substantial change in the role of domestically produced oil shale in its energy mix … The expected synchronisation of the Baltic electricity grid with the continental European grid by 2025 will further increase Estonia’s security of electricity supply.”



Valitsus valmistub suureks elektrikatkestuseks
(ERR)
"Sel sügisel on plaanis valitsuse tasandil läbi mängida lauaõppus, kuidas tagada kriitiliste teenuste, nagu side, vedelkütus, ravimid ja toidukaubad, tagamine suure elektrikatkestuse olukorras," ütles peaminister Jüri Ratas 2. oktoobril kõrgemate riigikaitsekursuste riigikaitsekonverentsil.”



Political discussions failed to rally Lithuanian neighbours against Belarusian nuclear plant
(LRT)
“The Lithuanian government says Belarus is building the nuclear facility close to its border in violation of safety standards and has called for blocking power imports from the power plant.”



US vows to help protect Baltics' energy infrastructure from cyber attacks
(Baltic Times)
“… as Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia prepare to disconnect their power networks from the post-Soviet system and synchronize them with those of Western Europe. A joint declaration, signed on Sunday in Vilnius by US Energy Secretary Rick Perry and his Lithuanian, Latvian and Estonian counterparts, states that the US might provide strategic and technical assistance.”
“The declaration acknowledges "a critical moment for the Baltic States in strengthening cybersecurity in strategic Baltic energy infrastructure".













European Commission’s next leaders take tough tone on China
(South China Morning Post)
“Chinese investments in Europe among the matters set to come under greater scrutiny when new executive takes over in November.”



Arvamus: Miks on Hiina investeeringud ohtlikud?
(Postimees)
“Hiina ütleb vaesematele riikidele, et on valmis rahastama nende suuri infrastruktuuriprojekte, olgu selleks siis sild, sadam, tunnel. Riigi valitsus seob end käsist ja jalust, et Hiina antud laenu tagasi maksta.”



Why Is Eastern Europe Silent On China?
by Edward Lucas - CEPA
“We know about a million people in mind-control camps. The extermination of ancient cultures, languages, and religions. The kidnapping of children. Mass population control backed by a new system of high-tech surveillance that makes the Telescreen of George Orwell’s novel 1984 seem like a mild intrusion. We know about it all. … Yet we keep silent.”




Are Chinese tech companies bluffing their way into the EU?
(Vox Europe)
“Awash in cash, drowning in data and state-sponsored, Chinese players may benefit, moreover, from our own gullibility …”



Lithuania must take Chinese threat as seriously as Russia's
(LRT)
“When a Hong Kong support rally in Vilnius came up against a coordinated Chinese counter-demonstration, Lithuanians became aware of Beijing's soft power reach in the country. … the Chinese Embassy was involved …”





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Monday 7. October
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With Gazprom’s Nord Stream 2, Putin Is Getting Ready to Put the Screws on Europe
(Foreign Policy)
“The new pipeline won’t deliver energy security. It will make the EU more dependent on a capricious Russia.”



Nord Stream 2 will increase Russia's influence on EU foreign policy
(Baltic Times)



Opinion: Dear President Niinistö
(Helsinki Times)
“With all due respect, Your press conference with the president of the United States was perplexing, to say the least. First, you shouldn’t have been there at all. … But once you were there, you had an excellent opportunity to promote Finland in front of the world. Instead, you became an extra in a Trump reality TV episode and a sidekick in an internal dispute of a president dragging himself and his country through the mire. …”



20,000 US Troops to Go to Europe for 2020 Training Exercise
(VOA)
“U.S. European Command said Monday the "Defender Europe 20" exercise from April to May 2020 will support NATO objectives "to build readiness within the alliance and deter potential adversaries." Eighteen countries are expected to take part in exercises across 10 countries, including Germany, Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Georgia.”





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