Russian Special Forces Change Tactics In The Baltics
By Mindaugas Aušra and Indrė Makaraitytė
(Lithuanian Radio and Television - LRT)
“… satellite images of Russian military bases in Kaliningrad and on the Estonian and Latvian borders show they have been emptied of not just military personnel but also of heavy equipment. However, data gathered by investigative journalists suggest that the Russian bases are only temporarily empty and special units in Kaliningrad are organising sabotage operations in Lithuania, the other Baltic states, and Poland.”
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“Russia does not need to fill up the empty military bases along the NATO border to demonstrate that it can influence the countries from within. Russian special-purpose intelligence units are deployed in Kaliningrad, including the 390 Special Purpose Intelligence Point, which trains saboteurs capable of operating in NATO countries, particularly Lithuania and Poland. … Servicemen for this unit are recruited not from conscripts but exclusively from existing contractors and the Ready Reserve. … the troops at the unit are trained in bombing on land and mine clearance at sea. Each soldier must be able to use all weapons.”
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“For example, by penetrating Lithuanian territory and mining key infrastructure in the port of Klaipėda – loading cranes, the pier or the docks – they can paralyse NATO’s ability to supply or deploy forces for operations in the region. …”
“Satelliidipildid Paljastavad: Putin toodab Eesti lähedal Ukrainasse kahuriliha, hoogne ehitus käib Kaliningradis.” - Eesti Ekspress - ‘paywall’
“From Kyiv to Riga: Russian sabotage operations in the Baltics.” - Vsquare, July 2024
Mapping Russia’s War Machine On Nato’s Doorstep
(Vsquare Org.)
“Close to Russia’s border with Estonia, satellite images reveal that many Russian military bases are now significantly emptier than they were a few years ago. Comparing satellite photos over time, our partner Delfi has identified that much of the equipment previously stored outdoors has vanished. Where there were once hundreds of tanks, armored personnel carriers, command vehicles, and Kamaz trucks parked in tight rows, today we see mostly empty ground.”
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“This reduction is clearly visible at the Pskov military airfield, just 35 km from the Estonian border. This is where the notorious 76th Air Assault Division and the 2nd Spetsnaz Brigade—rapid response units that would be deployed first to capture critical targets, including leaders and other high-profile individuals, in the event of an invasion—are based.”
https://vsquare.org/russia-military-bases-threat-europe-nato/
The Baltic Countries Want Time and Stability from Washington
By Justinas Mickus
(The German Marshall Fund)
“Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania await the presidential election in the United States with anxiety. With the politicization of US support for Ukraine and Donald Trump’s questioning of NATO’s mutual-defense obligation, the future of European and transatlantic security seems at stake for the three Baltic countries.”
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“The Baltic countries’ ability to make their case … depends on reaching the right audience in Washington. They are familiar and have enjoyed close relations with the transatlanticist and neoconservative networks there but have made limited inroads with the more isolationist elements of the Trump coalition or with the “pragmatic internationalists” in Harris’s orbit. Baltic figures occupying senior relevant EU posts—Kaja Kallas as EU’s top diplomat, Andrius Kubilius as defense commissioner, and Jovita Neliupšienė as EU ambassador to the United States—may help in this regard.”
https://www.gmfus.org/news/baltic-countries-want-time-and-stability-washington
NATO brigades in the Baltic states: new chapters in the march toward deployment
(OSW)
“For Estonia, the plans to pre-position stockpiles of British armament and military equipment represent a significant step, as they will enable a quicker transition from battalion to brigade level in the event of a crisis. Estonia is the only Baltic state that has not secured a commitment to expand the hosted battlegroup to a permanent or rotational brigade, due to a shortfall in the British Army, which has only two armoured brigades available. For this reason, a light, rather than heavy, brigade combat team has been designated to support Estonia in the event of a crisis. NATO will maintain its permanent rotational presence in the country at the level of a battlegroup composed of a British reinforced mechanised battalion (equipped with artillery and air defence systems) and a French motorised company, totalling around 1,060 soldiers.”
UK seems hesitant to commit to full brigade-level presence in Estonia
(ERR)
“Deploying more troops to Estonia is beneficial both for training and alliance collaboration. The U.K. seems somewhat hesitant to commit to a full brigade-level presence. After Russia's invasion of Ukraine began in 2022, two battle groups were temporarily sent to Estonia, but one had to be withdrawn by Christmas. I believe this is a credibility concern for the U.K. When it comes to deterrence, particularly deterring Russia, this sends a weak message about the British Army if it struggles to maintain a brigade presence over the long term,” said Ed Arnold, a researcher at the British think tank RUSI."
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Cover photo of the center of Vöru
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Võru_keskväljak_2020_10_01.jpg
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Prime Minister Michal: Russian citizens should not vote in next elections
(Postimees)
“Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal has said the government will try to strip Russian and Belarusian citizens of their right to vote in local elections in Estonia already before next year's local polls.”
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“My wish would be to act as simply and clearly as possible in electoral matters and to say that Russian and Belarusian citizens will not participate in the elections.”
“Estonia ready to fight tonight”
(Estonian Defence Forces)
“The Commander of NATO Multinational Corps North- East Lieutenant- General Jürgen-Joachim von Sandrart visited Estonia. … “Over the last three years the Estonian Armed Forces and Multinational Corps Northeast grew together and became close friends as allied forces. We are facing a common enemy who threatens our freedom, sovereignty and democracy. After three years of prudent military planning my conclusion is as follows: Estonia has become an important and capable NATO ally, together we ensure a credible deterrence and if deterrence fails we will defend victoriously!” said Lieutenant – General von Sandrart.”
“Russia's Imperial Ambitions Are a Clear Threat to NATO.” - National Interest
“Estonian Defence League receives 20 attack drones and 4 reconnaissance drones purchased by Reservists’ Fund.” - Kaitseministeerium
“Türkiye to participate in NATO Baltic Air Policing mission in 2026.” - Postimees
“Estonia mulling which defense equipment to buy from Ukraine.” - ERR
“Estonia Summons Russian Diplomat Over Border River Dispute.” Moscow Times
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“NATO Force Integration Unit: Rail Baltica is a civilian project of major military significance.” - Baltic Times
“Narvalasi tervitas hommikul esimene lumi.” - ERR
“Tugev tuul häirib praamiliiklust: tänased Rohuküla-Heltermaa väljumised tühistati.” - Postimees
“Ministeerium rahustab puidutööstust kohvipaksu pealt ennustusega.” - Ülle Harju, Postimees
“Preparatory work for Rail Baltica's Ülemiste terminal building underway.” - ERR
“Michal Lätis: Rail Baltic peab valmis saama 2030. aastaks.” - Postimees
“Australian billionaire Tim Heath fights off alleged abductors in Estonia.” - ABC Australia - video
“Retirement age in Estonia will be 65 years and one month in 2027.” - BNN
“With Estonia's mardipäev and kadripäev, is Halloween one too many?” - ERR
Around the Baltic Sea
“Finnish President Alexander Stubb on diplomatic state visit to China.” - Helsinki Times
“No Russian provocations expected ahead of Baltic grid synchronisation.” - LRT
“Rootsi relvajõud on mures tuuleparkide mõju pärast kaitsevõimele.” - Postimees
“Sweden's most secretive agency.” - Radio Sweden
“Finnish Coast Guard reports GPS interference and "shadow fleets" in Baltic Sea.” - Yle
“Lithuanian troops take part in NATO’s joint deterrence operation in Baltic Sea.” - LRT
“Rail Baltica report offers tentative plan for future.” - Latvian Broadcasting
“Lithuania set to certify ‘first of its kind’ drone traffic management app in Europe.” - LRT
“Finland orders seizure of Russian assets at request of Ukrainian oil and gas company.” - Euronews
“Latvian armed forces test 'dragon's teeth' on eastern border.” - ERR
“The oxygen conditions in the Gulf of Finland remains poor.” - Daily Finland
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Hungary flirts with Putin and snubs NATO meeting in Budapest
By Stuart Lau, Politico Europe
“NATO allies’ frustration with Hungary is reaching boiling point as the country continues to flirt with Russia. The split widened on Wednesday as Hungarian officials snubbed an invitation to join a Budapest meeting of all ambassadors and military advisers from NATO countries stationed in Hungary. The aim was to discuss Budapest’s policy of encouraging ties with Russia and China.”
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“There is no mechanism to kick Hungary out of NATO … traditionally, if a NATO ally stepped out of line, the U.S. would weigh in. This time, however, Orbán is betting that his ally Donald Trump will win the U.S. election.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/hungary-viktor-orban-flirts-vladimir-putin-snubs-nato-meeting/
“Nato can expect more turbulence ahead.” - The Guardian
Lithuanian election winner Vilija Blinkevičiūtė rejects PM role
(Politico Europe)
“I don’t have the capacity to be prime minister given my age and health,” said Blinkevičiūtė, who serves as an MEP, at a meeting of the party’s leadership.”
Expert on Ukraine: Disappointment with the West is mounting
(ERR)
“The people of Ukraine appear to have come to terms with the idea that the war could last for years, but disappointment with the West is becoming increasingly common among them, noted filmmaker and communications expert Ilmar Raag, currently in the city of Sumy, Ukraine.”
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“On one hand, people feel that things are going relatively well: Ukraine has not yet lost, people have somewhat adapted to the war and have accepted that it might last for years. Even if the winter is harsh, there's no expectation within Ukraine that a new wave of refugees will emerge, even if it gets bitterly cold.”
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"On the other hand, there is growing frustration with the West. Western aid has consistently been both insufficient and delayed, making Ukrainians feel they are bleeding out before the victory can be secured. I've observed this sense of frustration deepening over the course of my various trips to Ukraine."
https://news.err.ee/1609506505/expert-on-ukraine-situation-disappointment-with-the-west-mounting
“Ukraine announces new mobilisation drive, 160,000 people to be drafted.” - BNN
Putin’s Forever War
North Korean troops moving toward Ukraine, says Pentagon
(AP | The Hill)
“The thousands of young soldiers North Korea has sent to Russia, reportedly to help fight against Ukraine, include many elite special forces, but that hasn’t stopped speculation they’ll be slaughtered because they have no combat experience, no familiarity with the terrain and will likely be dropped onto the most ferocious battlefields.”
https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4962726-north-korean-troops-ukraine-pentagon/
“Blinken: Vene piiril on lahinguvalmis 8000 Põhja-Korea sõdurit.” - Postimees
“North Korean Defectors Seek to Serve in Defense of Ukraine.” - Baltic Sentinel
The Russian Military Is 'Bleeding Out' in the Ukraine War
By Harrison Kass, The National Interest
“Russia suffered more than 10,000 casualties in Ukraine last week, suggesting that the fighting is as intense as ever and could get even more brutal.”
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/russian-military-bleeding-out-ukraine-war-213457
“Ukraine must and will work to attract non-Ukrainian immigrants to compensate for losses, Kyiv experts say.” - Paul Goble
“Putin oversees large-scale nuclear response drills.” - Euronews
“The long arm of Russia is reaching out for Putin critics in exile.” - The Guardian
“Russia’s key interest rate is now at a record high of 21%.” - Meduza
“How might the Central Bank’s decision to raise Russia’s key interest rate to 21% affect ordinary Russians?” - Novaya Gazeta
“Moscow Fails to Cash-In on the West’s Problems.” - CEPA
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessments
30. / 31. October 2024
(ISW)
“The Russian military command continues to commit seriously wounded personnel to highly attritional infantry-led “meat” assaults in the Kurakhove direction as Russian President Vladimir Putin attempts to posture himself as deeply concerned with the medical treatment of Russian veterans.”
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“The Kremlin simultaneously continues to militarize various levels of Russian government, likely in preparation for long-term war efforts in Ukraine and confrontation against NATO despite the reported lack of preparation for the Duma elections.”
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-30-2024
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https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-31-2024
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