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18 November, 2016


- There will be no email newsletter next week due to the US Thanksgiving Day holiday. 
If events warrant, news links may appear on the EstoNews blog. 


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Friday 18. November
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✔ Trump, NATO chief pledge alliance's 'enduring importance' 
(Reuters | Politico-Europe | others)

"U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg agreed on Friday on the Western alliance's "enduring importance", NATO said, striving to reassure Europe that Washington will remain committed to its security.”
———
"NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Friday he is “absolutely confident” that President-elect Donald Trump will maintain the United States’ role in the international organization, despite Trump’s past suggestions that he would pull back from the commitment if other countries did not bear more of the financial burden."



- Setomaa: A Fairytale Kingdom Faces Real-Life Troubles
(National Geographic)
"On the [southeastern] border of Estonia and Russia, the Setos struggle to create a modern identity from ancient beliefs. … Two thirds of Seto land falls in the Pskov region of Russia, though only a few hundred Setos live there.” 

- Pääle kiräkeele kõnõldas Eestin kõgõ inämb võro ja seto kiilt!
(Lõunaleht - märts 2015)

- National Geographic avaldas artikli maagilisest Setomaast



- Tallinnas avati uuenenud valgustusega jõuluturg | Christmas market in Vana Tallinn is now open
(ERR | Postimees)



- Obama, EU leaders agree to stick together, stay tough on Russia
(Reuters | NYT | AP)



- Rumor: Baltic warning over Russian move on Nato
(BBC)
"Lithuania has warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin may test Nato in the weeks before Donald Trump becomes US president.”


- How World War III Could Begin in Latvia
(Foreign Policy - Paul Miller)


✔ USA analüütik: Trump peab varsti otsustama, kas Balti riikide kaitsmine on väärt kolmandat maailmasõda
(Delfi)


- More than 60% of Estonians consider EU membership a good thing
(ERR)


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Thursday 17. November
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- We’re Worried About the Baltics: What Does Trump’s Election Portend for these Tiny U.S. Allies?
(Lawfare)


- In Estonia, Caution but Surprising Cheers for Trump’s Victory
(New York Times)
“… profound worry over Mr. Trump’s intentions has calmed somewhat because the president-elect has pulled back from statements he made on the campaign trail."
———
In an effort to head off any weakening of American support for the Baltic States, Mr. Kalnins and a group of fellow legislators from Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania will travel to Washington early next month to press their case to the Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell, and others who might help influence Mr. Trump."


- Russia to again allow Estonian, Latvian non-citizens to enter country without visa
(The Baltic Times)
"According to the draft document published on the website of the Russian draft legislation a separate category of non-citizens [approx. 6,000] has emerged - non-citizens in Latvia and Estonia who were born after February 6, 1992 and have come of age, as well as their offspring, who cannot enjoy visa-free travels to Russia."


- Lithuania Suspends Russian TV After Anti-U.S. Comments
(RFERL)
"The order came after a recent broadcast in which Russian Duma member Vladimir Zhirinovsky was shown saying that if U.S. troops get near Russia's borders "they will burn down with the crew.” Zhirinovsky is the leader of the nationalist Liberal Democratic party and is known for flamboyant [read: dangerous] remarks but also for hewing closely to Kremlin policy."





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Wednesday 16. November
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- Opinion: No antidote to Putin's influence in Eastern Europe
(Deutsche Welle)
“… despite the fact that there is consensus for a strengthening of NATO's eastern flank, not all countries are willing to help the alliance to the same degree. The Baltics, Poland and Romania are the only Eastern European states willing, and actively preparing, to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with the USA in the face of a possible Russian military threat.”


- In the name of Russian votes
(Postimees)
“… the Center Party's scandalous cooperation agreement with Vladimir Putin's United Russia party was signed in 2004 with one simple goal in mind – to finally help the party come to power on the wings of the Russian vote.”


- EU unveils security check plan for visitors
(Deutsche Welle | EU Observer)
“… to be applied to millions of short-term visitors from 60 countries who can currently visit Europe's Schengen area without each first applying for a visa."



- EU member states back visa-free travel for Ukrainians
(Deutsche Welle)




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Tuesday 15. November
_________________

- Internet Freedom: Estonia Listed at #1
(RFERL | Freedom House)


- Briti valitsus soovib Trumpiga NATO teemal arutada
(ERR)




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Monday 14. November
_________________

- Venemaa püüab oma mõjuvõimu Soomes suurendada
(ERR)


- Could Estonia lose its only Russian-language TV channel ETV+?
(The Calvert Journal)


- Make Eastern Europe safe again
(Politico - Eerik-Niiles Kross & Molly K. McKew)
"The Kremlin thrives on uncertainty, and it will continue to operate in uncertain and unstable places with a free hand. The Baltic states need strong words from the U.S. president-elect. Only his unwavering support for the enhanced NATO footprint in the Baltic states and Poland can end the current uncertainty, enhance stability, and make clear that what is ours is ours, and not up for negotiation."


- Latvia to build a fence on border with Belarus
(Latvian Broadcasting)






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- Trump | Putin -
- "Trust No One” -
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✔ Media: Watching the US elections in Moscow
(Politico-Europe)
"When it seemed Clinton would win, the editor of Russia Today tweeted “Democracy RIP” - but then quickly rescinded her comment when it became apparent Trump had come out on top. Russian state TV similarly switched gears, churning out a narrative of American working classes flooding the polling stations and finally taking back their country. … State TV channels eagerly explained that Americans had voted for Trump “because they were tired of the anti-Russian attitudes of Clinton and the establishment."

"Two days before the US election, state TV channel Russia 24 launched a countdown timer of the hours and minutes left until polls opened – a level of hype and anticipation far exceeding that witnessed during Russia’s own recent parliamentary elections.” - The Guardian-Uk



✔ A Trump administration thaw with Russia is ‘unacceptable,’ John McCain says
(Washington Post | ERR)
“With the U.S. presidential transition underway, Vladi­mir Putin has said in recent days that he wants to improve relations with the United States,” McCain (R-Ariz.) said in a statement released by his office. “We should place as much faith in such statements as any other made by a former KGB agent who has plunged his country into tyranny, murdered his political opponents, invaded his neighbors, threatened America’s allies and attempted to undermine America’s elections."

✔ McCain: katse "taaskäivitada" suhteid Venemaaga oleks vastuvõetamatu

- Kremlin: Trump and Putin Did Not Talk About Crimea 
(The Moscow Times)


- What will the new American president do to end Russia’s shadow war against the United States and its allies?
(Time)

- Trump May Take a Far Tougher Line against Russia ...
(Window on Eurasia)
Russian Academician Aleksey Arbato: "Trump will not begin with a hostile attitude toward Russia. He “will be open for dialogue with Moscow but he will not make any dramatic gestures” and he won’t call on Russia to “follow great ideals because he understands that Russia and America have very different ones.”

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✔ Opinion: The Man Who Would Not be President
(New York Times - Roger Cohen)
"I believe money binds Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, and Trump. Precisely how we do not know yet. But there is also a cultural aspect. Putin has set himself up as the guardian of an absolutist culture against what Russia sees as the predatory and relativist culture of the West. The Putin entourage is convinced the decadence of the West is revealed in its irreligious embrace of same-sex marriage, radical feminism, euthanasia, homosexuality and choose-your-gender bathrooms. Enter (Stephen) Bannon.”

✔ Media: Trump’s Man Stephen Bannon and ‘Breitbart' are looking to build a Trumpian media empire in Europe 
(The Daily Beast)
"Bannon's support for European far-right parties runs far deeper than his interest in Marion Maréchal-Le Pen or the National Front. He brags about his international Breitbart operation as “the platform” for the American alt-right, and has for years been thinking globally, with an affinity for the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), Alternative for Germany (AfD), and the Freedom Party in the Netherlands (PVV), all of which have earned glowing coverage on the pages of Breitbart."


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- Russia's mobilisation may prove Putin's undoing
(Raam Op Rusland - Mark Galeotti)
“… first is that there is still a sharp limitation to what this impoverished, inefficient, corrupt remnant of the USSR can do, even when relying on the executive capacities of an authoritarian to focus resources on its security sector. Second, this is no Stalinist mobilization state, not even the later Soviet one with its plans to summon millions of men to arms in time of war. Third, much of this militarization of politics has less to do with warfighting and everything to do with politics."



- How Trump Could Roll Back Obama's Russia Policies
(RFERL)



- Opinion: There’s a New Putin in Town
(Foreign Policy)
"So for a start, the Kremlin is going to lose one of its favorite tactics: namely, periodically poking the West with a stick. On Putin’s orders, the Russians have simulated nuclear attacks on Sweden, flown warplanes low over American ships, launched a kidnapping raid over the Estonian border, and generally missed few opportunities to troll the Western world and see how it responds. By demonstrating Moscow’s will and ability to break the rules, with little real consequence from Washington, the hope is that the Europeans in particular will be unnerved and divided.”



- Arvamus: Kui Trumpist saab Venemaa sõber, peab Kreml kiirelt uue vaenlase leidma
(Postimees - Andrei Kuzitškin)



- Putin’s big problem: America is no longer the enemy
(The Guardian-Uk)
"The Kremlin may struggle to adjust now there is a fellow neoconservative in the White House."



- Donald Trump’s Election Leaves Angela Merkel as the Liberal West’s Last Defender
(New York Times)



- NATO: US and Europe need each other
(The Guardian | Deutsche Welle | Reuters)
"Going it alone on defense and security is not an option for either the United States or Europe, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said in an article published on Sunday.”





- Opinion: Russia's Trumpian pipe dream
(Deutsche Welle)



- Putin spokesman calls on Trump to press NATO to withdraw from border
(AP | The Hill)




- Pro-Russian candidates win in Bulgaria and Moldova
(EU Observer)

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Posted by at

11 November, 2016




✔ ESTONIA’S GOVERNMENT FALLS AFTER NO-CONFIDENCE VOTE

- "With a 62-to-28 vote against Roivas, his Reform Party has been pushed out of power, leading to a new government between the Center Party, the Social Democrats and the IRL.” - Daily Express-Uk

- “Prime Minister Roivas has lost all credibility and his time as head of government is over.” - Center Party leader Kadri Simson

"The new leader of Estonia’s traditionally pro-Kremlin Center Party, Jüri Ratas, is now all but set to be installed as Estonia’s next Prime Minister.” - Postimees


 - Full Text: Joint declaration of the Estonian Centre Party, the IRL Party and the Social Democrats
(ERR)


✔ Center Party-Putin Deal Puts Estonia’s International Reputation at Risk
(Postimees)
"Hidden in the shadow of Tuesday’s US presidential elections and away from the gaze of international media, the opposition leaders of Estonia’s coalition government hoped to quietly pull the plug on the long standing Reform Party government.”
——————
"A 2004 cooperation agreement that was signed by then Center Party leader, Edgar Savisaar, with Vladimir Putin’s United Russia, is still maintained by the Center Party’s new leader. Instead of rejecting the agreement, one senior Center Party leader, Mailis Reps, said earlier this week, The Center Party will “keep the door open for the Kremlin”.
——————
"Perhaps it’s no coincidence then, that Russia’s Ambassador to Estonia told reporters on Thursday that the Kremlin would warmly welcome cooperation with the new Center Party government. He continued, saying that “any positive steps certainly increase the feeling of security of Russians and also the people of the neighboring countries”; implying that Estonia poses some sort of aggressive threat to his country."


- Keskerakonna ja Putini kokkulepe ohustab Eesti rahvusvahelist mainet


- “Rebige see leping puruks”


- "For the first time in almost two decades, Estonia will have a government that does not include the Reform Party."
(Politico-Europe | ERR | Reuters | Transitions)
"Estonia, one of the few NATO member countries to fulfill its spending target of 2% of its GDP on defense, now faces the prospect of a government led by the Center Party, traditionally seen as a friend of the Kremlin. However its newly installed leaders are adamant that Estonia’s policy towards Russia will not change, despite the party having signed a cooperation agreement with Vladimir Putin’s United Russia in 2004."
——————
“Our new leader is very much an Estonian patriot and no one questions this,” said Kadri Simson, leader of the Center Party in the parliament, describing Jüri Ratas who replaced Edgar Savisaar as the party’s chairman at the weekend.”






- Report: US not rattled by Estonian no-confidence vote
(Washington Examiner)
"Since Estonia regained its independence in 1991, the United States and Estonia have been close friends," State Department deputy spokesman Mark Toner said in a statement to the Washington Examiner."


- "The three parties set to form Estonia's next coalition government pledged Thursday to keep the small Baltic state firmly rooted in the European Union and NATO.”
(The Daily Star)


- Eesti Riigikogu avaldas peaminister Taavi Rõivasele umbusaldust
(Postimees | ERR)



- ETV Intervjuu: Taavi Rõivas
(ERR)







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✔ EUROPE AND THE US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 
_________________

"To celebrate Trump's inauguration the Russian army will hold a parade through Kiev.” - Parody Twitter account @DarthPutinKGB


- Across the World, Shock and Uncertainty at Trump’s Victory
(New York Times)


- Ukrainian Military Reports Sharp Increase In Fighting
(RFERL)


- Finland weighs implications of Trump presidency
(Yle)
"Former US Ambassador to Finland, Bruce Oreck - who chose to stay in Finland after his tenure at the helm of the US Embassy in Helsinki - reacted with a two-word Facebook update towards the end of Election Day when it seemed inevitable that Trump would win, according to Ilta-Sanomat.
He wrote: "Oh F**k."


- Reaction in Former Soviet Space to Trump Victory 
(Paul Goble)


- Surviving the Trumpocalypse: first thoughts…
(Mark Galeotti)
"Ultimately, there is no reason to believe Russia has any territorial designs on NATO states, but it will, if it feels it has the chance, bully and intervene. More to the point, Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, even Belarus are going to have to come to terms with a future in which they are unlikely to be able to count on serious Western support and protection."


- Arvamus: Trumpi ego võib meid katastroofist säästa
(Postimees)


- Trump's team needs Baltic training
(Postimees)
"Former ambassador to the United States Jüri Luik says … that Estonia's agreements are with the United States of America as a country, not with individual presidents."


- Endine Bushi nõunik: Trumpilt pole Ameerika välispoliitikasse radikaalseid pöördeid oodata
(Postimees)
"Ma ei usu, et Trumpilt oleks välispoliitikas oodata radikaalseid muudatusi. Senine retoorika on võib-olla olnud häiriv, kuid midagi uut pole ta öelnud. Kui võtame NATO ja kollektiivkaitse koorma jagamise teema, siis see on olnud põhimõtteliselt päevakorral juba alliansi asutamisest saati. Trumpi väljendusvorm võis tunduda äärmuslik, kuid see pole uus teema."


- Baltics and Poland wary over Nato pledges following US election
(BNE)


- Kiev worries it may be left to face Moscow alone
(Politico-Europe)
“Biggest loser in the world tonight — Ukraine,” tweeted Michael McFaul, the former U.S. ambassador to Russia. “Your only hope is to get really serious about reform and keep Euros supportive.”


- Opinion: Can Europe survive a Trump presidency?
(Politico-Europe)
"One hopes that the American constitutional system can withstand four years of an unhinged, egomaniacal figure as president. Even then, the inward turn of U.S. foreign policy, promised by president-elect Donald Trump, will affect the closest friends and allies of the United States. … In his victory speech, Trump vowed to “get along with all other nations willing to get along with us.” But “getting along” is not a foreign policy. "


- Finnish press covers Trump's dramatic victory
(Yle)


- Viewpoint: What does Trump mean for Latvia?
(Latvian Broadcasting)
"Lacking any coherent foreign policy plan worthy of the name and, moreover, having repeatedly stated that he regards unpredictability as a key strategic asset, we must also assume he intends to be unpredictable. Therefore attempting to predict in what manner he will be unpredictable would seem to be a futile effort. The US Embassy in Riga offered some words of reassurance. It could do nothing else. But it doesn't know what will happen now, either. No-one knows. That is the simple truth."


- Opinion: Europe is staring into the abyss
(Deutsche Welle)
"This election result feels like the end of an era. An era in which the transatlantic relationship, with all its strengths and weaknesses, was the main stabilizing factor in world politics. If Trump gives in to his isolationist impulses, global trade will be in peril. The security partnership that has protected the West for decades may be broken up. And if he cozies up to Putin, the global balance of power will shift. The rise of Donald Trump may also herald the end of liberal democracy as we know it. He could act as a catalyst for the further rise of extreme populist movements in Europe. And if you add President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey, Putin's ongoing reign, North Korea going rogue and violent newcomer Rodrigo Duterte, the global political landscape looks completely frightening."


- Commentary: The Calamity
(Zeit Online)
"The world should be afraid of what this unpredictable man will come up with next. … Those who cast their ballots for Trump may have seen it as a protest against the establishment, but by doing so, they became part of an anti-democratic upheaval whose proponents no longer believe in much of what holds modern states together. "


- Commentary: Trump's Victory Ushers in Dangerous Instability
(Spiegel)
"The most important question is now: Will the American system of "checks and balances" between the institutions manage to prevent a man who speaks like an autocrat from governing like one? Is it even possible to control Trump with a Republican Congress?"


- Nato members digest Trump win, express concerns
(BNE | WSJ)
"That a Trump presidency will have implications for European defence is not in doubt; the extent of the impact, however, is open to debate."



- Commentary: Trump Could Make a World of Trouble Worse
(The Daily Beast)
"Trump’s notion is that he can make deals with other governments, including dictators, much as he did in real estate. Good luck with that."


- Donald Trump’s Foreign Policy Is a Black Box
(Time)
"The foreign policy challenges Trump will face on Jan. 20 are much more complex than those that Obama inherited from George W. Bush. Technological change, particularly in communications and in the workplace, creates risks and problems that are entirely new. Russia is looking to undermine U.S. power and influence whenever and wherever possible, and a Trump presidency could well embolden Vladimir Putin. Trump becomes the face of Western capitalism at a moment China is offering the world an alternative economic model. For fans of globalization as it has progressed for the past few decades, that’s cause for concern."


- Uncertainty Over Donald Trump’s Foreign Policy Risks Global Instability
(New York Times)
“You’re going to see a lot of fear among America’s allies, and in some cases they may try to do something about it,” said James Goldgeier, a political scientist and the dean of American University’s School of International Service.”
——————
“If you’re in the Baltics, you now have no idea whether you can count on the U.S. if Putin makes a move,” Mr. Goldgeier said, referring to Mr. Trump’s suggestions that he might not fulfill American treaty obligations to defend a NATO ally such as Estonia from Russian aggression."


- Russian warplanes keep buzzing the Baltics. Here’s how NATO scrambles.
(Washington Post | Popular Mechanics | Daily Mail)
AMARI AIR BASE, Estonia - "On a recent night at this air base where NATO fighter pilots keep a constant vigil against the Kremlin, the alarms that warn that Russian planes were veering toward NATO airspace wouldn’t stop going off. At least 13 Russian warplanes coursed through the skies. And the NATO fighter jets kept rushing into the air to meet them. By the end of the night, Finland and Estonia said their airspace had been violated — and in the sea below, a powerful nuclear-capable missile system was on its way to a Russian naval base in the enclave of Kaliningrad." 




- It’s Putin’s World Now
(The Daily Beast)
"The Center Party’s current leader, 38-year-old Jüri Ratas, the speaker of Estonian parliament, has vowed to continue the Baltic state’s strong Atlanticist commitment, fearing a popular backlash should he do anything to vitiate national ties to NATO or the EU. Nevertheless, there may well be intramural pressures (and subtle external ones) …"


- Army plans 2018 Europe deployment for new Stryker prototype
(Stars & Stripes)
"The 2nd Cavalry Regiment, which has some of the Army’s oldest Strykers still in operation, asked that 81 of the vehicles be fitted with the 30mm autocannons to replace the 12.7mm machine guns currently mounted on the eight-wheel-drive troop transports. The 2nd Cav is one of two Army brigades permanently stationed in Europe and has played a key role in U.S. - European Command efforts to increase the presence of U.S. forces along NATO’s eastern edge, in places such as the Baltics and Estonia."







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✔ RUSSIA AND THE US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 
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"Deputies in Russia's parliament broke into applause at the news Donald Trump had been elected US president." - BBC



- Putin congratulates Donald Trump, by telegram
(Politico-Europe | Kremlin website)
“Putin wished D. Trump success in the serious duties as head of state.”



- Russians Toast to President Trump
(Daily Beast - Anna Nemtsova)
"The jubilant men said that they worked for the Russian government, that Trump’s victory was Russia’s, and their own window of opportunity. Why? “Because he is ours, our guy!” one of Trump’s fans, who smelled strongly of whiskey, told The Daily Beast. That was not the only Trump party in Moscow—celebrations continued all day. The Moscow establishment was drinking to a long awaited disaster for the American establishment."


- 'Very Risky Period': Trump's Effect On U.S.-Russian Relations, As Seen In Moscow
(RFERL)


- Putin TV Hails the ‘Trump Administration’
(The Daily Beast)
"The Russian government’s English-language propaganda channel wasn’t exactly giddy at the prospect of President Trump. But boy, did they love the idea of Hillary Clinton going down.”
——————
"A ponytailed, green-tied commentator said, “This is the end of the Clinton era that began in 1992,” adding that the rot at the heart of American politics was Jay Z, Beyoncé, and hot sauce."


- On Russian TV, Clinton-Trump Race Merits Wall-to-Wall Coverage
(New York Times)
"The blanket coverage had led to more than a little grumbling that the Kremlin-managed news media was devoting more time and energy to the American elections than it paid to a national parliamentary vote in Russia less than two months ago."


- Russia Is Keen For Trump's Ad Hoc Diplomacy
(The Moscow Times)
"Donald Trump’s election as the 45th U.S. President may have caused some irrational exuberance in Moscow, but there is also a palpable sense of apprehension within the Kremlin. The message to Russia is simple: Be careful what you wish for.”
——————
"Trump’s impulsiveness and unpredictability, particularly his penchant for going personal, unnerve the Kremlin. Moscow has used unpredictability as one of its key foreign policy tools, but that was predicated on the rationality of the U.S. response to Russia’s assertiveness. Having an equally unpredictable partner in Washington may actually limit Moscow’s freedom of maneuver."


- Opinion: Trump’s Victory Has Closed Russia’s Road to Change
(Moscow Times)


- Commentators: Trump Victory Points to End of Globalization
(Window on Eurasia)
“… an editorial in today’s “Nezavisimaya gazeta” points out that in recent days, Russian government media have suggested that Trump may not be a good thing for Russia and may even be worse, something that suggests the Kremlin wants to continue to use hostility to the West as a mobilizing principle (ng.ru/editorial/2016-11-09/2_6854_red.html).”


- Flamboyant Russian Nationalist Throws Party in Parliament to Celebrate Trump Victory
(Moscow Times)


- For Russia and Putin, a Surprise Gift From America
(New York Times)
"The victory of Donald J. Trump declared early on Wednesday was an unexpected bonus for the Kremlin, which had used the long, tortured United States election campaign to prove the global reach of its disruptive disinformation operations and to cast doubt on the entire Western democratic process. In some ways the result was less important to President Vladimir V. Putin than the fact that Moscow could exploit the campaign as evidence that the West was in chaotic decline."


- Inside Moscow's pro-Trump Election Night Bash
(Moscow Times)


- How next US president could pressure Russia in new ways
(Christian Science Monitor)
"But how to increase leverage with Putin? The best way may be to first take action where Putin’s primary interests lie, some experts say. That means signaling a more robust American diplomacy generally through steps in Eastern Europe and the Baltics specifically. … Others say such actions would risk antagonizing Russia and could further deteriorate relations between the two powers without necessarily improving conditions in Syria. … But US experts who advocate more aggressive US steps, including in Europe, say the point is not to antagonize Putin but to convince him the US is serious."


- Month after US Elections ‘Most Favorable’ Time for Moscow to Destabilize Ukraine
(Window on Eurasia)
"Because the United States will be distracted by its elections and their aftermath."


- How Moscow Uses Interpol to Pursue Its Enemies
(New York Times)
"Determined to punish domestic opponents who flee abroad, as well as non-Russians whose lives and finances it wants to disrupt, Moscow has developed an elaborate and well-funded strategy in recent years of using — critics say abusing — foreign courts and law enforcement systems to go after its enemies."
——————
“It is also potentially a good threat to use against people still in the country: ‘You may be able to leave, but don’t assume you will be safe.”


- Russia’s pension system and its challenges
(BNE)

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